Breakfast | The three major indices surged to new highs, cryptocurrencies soared, and Trump-related stocks rose sharply

LB Select
2024.11.06 23:55
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The Dow Jones surged, small-cap indices rose nearly 6%, bank stocks jumped over 10%, oil, steel, and cryptocurrency stocks soared, while solar stocks plummeted across the board. DJT rose nearly 35% and closed up about 6%, Tesla increased nearly 15% to a two-year high, and Qualcomm rose 10% after hours. The decline of Chinese concept stocks narrowed, with Nio and ZEEKR dropping over 5%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by as much as 20 basis points, approaching 4.48%, while the dollar index, which rose 1.7%, broke above 105, both reaching four-month highs. Bitcoin rose 9%, approaching $76,000

U.S. stocks rose across the board, with cryptocurrency concept stocks, technology stocks, and small-cap stocks all experiencing significant gains, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.83%, dipping as much as 3.7% at one point.

Among the "seven sisters" of U.S. stocks, Tesla closed up 14.75%, Nvidia rose 4.07% to a record closing high of $145.61, further widening the gap with Apple's market value—Apple closed down 0.33%. Google A rose 3.99%, Amazon increased by 3.8% to a record closing high of $207.09, Microsoft rose 2.12%, and Meta closed down 0.07%, with Apple down 0.33%.

Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares rose 5.36%, AMD increased by 2.43%, TSMC ADR closed down 1.3%, and Eli Lilly fell 3.68%.

Focus on Post-Election Policies

Overview of Trump's Policies

First, trade policies are expected to tighten again. Second, immigration policies were emphasized again in yesterday's speech, highlighting the need for tightening. Third, in the infrastructure policy area, Trump stressed the importance of developing infrastructure. He previously proposed a large-scale infrastructure plan of $1.5 to $2.0 trillion during his last term. Fourth, in the tax policy area, Trump advocates for continuing large-scale tax cuts. Fifth, in the artificial intelligence policy area, Trump supports the development of artificial intelligence and relaxed regulations. Sixth, in the cryptocurrency policy area, Trump actively supports the development of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, aiming to make the U.S. a "cryptocurrency capital" and a "Bitcoin superpower," claiming that the Biden administration's suppression of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin is misguided. Seventh, in energy policy, Trump emphasizes the development of traditional energy, advocating for the cancellation of Biden's previous electric vehicle mandate and the reduction of costly and cumbersome regulations; by lifting restrictions on U.S. energy production and terminating the socialist Green New Deal, he aims to make the U.S. the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas, among other goals.

Positive for U.S. Manufacturing

The market is excited about the prospects of tax cuts benefiting businesses, while tariffs may drive a revival of domestic manufacturing and benefit American workers. An exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 rose by 2.5%, while a broader ETF investing in developed country stocks fell by 1.4%. This divergence last occurred in 2016, the year Trump first won the presidential election.

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, commented on the increased risk appetite for U.S. assets, stating, "This is a strong trade."

Two ETFs representing the U.S. manufacturing investment theme performed well. The First Trust RBA U.S. Industrial Renaissance ETF rose 8%, while the Tema U.S. Repatriation ETF increased by 6%. Both ETFs reached historical highs.

"America First" Protectionism Rises, Short-Term Negative for Emerging Market Stocks

As Trump's destructive protectionist agenda comes into focus, emerging market stocks have fallen, experiencing their largest decline in two years, lagging behind U.S. stocksJP Morgan strategists Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and others stated that America First trade aligns with a relatively strong economy. They pointed out that after tariffs were imposed during Trump's first term, the U.S. economy experienced a period of rapid growth.

"In the long run, a Trump victory could reinforce the so-called American exceptionalism," the bank's strategists wrote in a report on Wednesday. "As U.S. tariffs may impact the rest of the world earlier during Trump's second term, perhaps as soon as early next year, the current strong performance of the U.S. economy could extend into 2025."

In summary, the post-vote conclusion is clear: Anacapa Advisors Chief Investment Officer Phil Pecsok stated that the renewed rise of the U.S.-centric stock market indicates investor confidence in Trump.

"He uses tariffs as a bargaining chip, and it works very effectively," he said. "Most businesses prefer reduced regulation and lower taxes; his election as president would make the market more favorable."

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: Businesses and markets have reasons to be cautious about Trump 2.0. After the U.S. election, businesses and markets have reasons to hold a very cautious outlook for the future. The surge in protectionism is almost certain to overshadow the global economic outlook, becoming a negative factor for both U.S. and global economic growth. "Implementing fiscal stimulus in an over-demand U.S. economy will again trigger inflation risks and rising yields; the mixed effects of tax cuts and spending reductions are uncertain, but the former may outweigh the latter and further increase the U.S. fiscal deficit." Holt also believes that potential negative demographic shocks, negative investment shocks from insufficient investment in clean energy, and disruptions from supply chain risks will all pose risks.

DJT opens high and closes low, only up about 6%, down over 8% in after-hours trading, erasing all gains after the victory

After Trump's recent election victory, the stock surged 196% in six weeks, becoming a highly volatile meme stock. According to S3 Partners data, there is a risk of "short squeeze" due to high short interest and limited tradable shares. Investors shorting the company have lost $420 million.

Industry insiders believe that DJT's high open and low close is due to the election outcome, with significant prior gains, and DJT's market capitalization being substantial, making its long-term trend influenced by fundamentals.

Cryptocurrency concept stocks soar, Bitcoin rises 9% to a new high

Among cryptocurrency/blockchain concept stocks, Coinbase rose 31.11%, Cipher Mining increased over 31%, Riot Platforms rose over 26.1%, the double-leveraged Bitcoin ETF increased over 19.7%, Robinhood rose over 19.6%, "Bitcoin whale" MicroStrategy (MSTR) rose about 13.2%, Canaan Inc. ADR rose about 13%, Ethereum ETF ETHV rose over 11.4%, and Bitcoin ETF BITB rose about 9.9%Trump actively supports the development of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, aiming to make the United States the "cryptocurrency capital" and a "Bitcoin superpower," claiming that the Biden administration's suppression of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin is misguided.

Tesla surges nearly 15%, Musk's wealth increases by $20.9 billion

Musk remains the world's richest person, and after Trump, whom Musk supports, won the U.S. presidential election, Tesla's stock rose by 14.75%. According to Forbes' billionaire list, Tesla's surge led to a single-day increase of $20.9 billion in the wealth of the company's founder and CEO, Musk, bringing his total assets to $285.6 billion, far exceeding Jeff Bezos, who ranks second on the global billionaire list.

Musk's Tesla, X platform, and SpaceX are all expected to benefit from Trump's victory. Analyst Dan Ives believes Tesla's stock price could reach $300, leaving some room from Tesla's closing price of $288 on Wednesday. As the "number one contributor" to Trump's victory, Musk's political resources are also expected to rise rapidly.

Qualcomm's profit increases by over 30%, guidance exceeds expectations, stock rises 10% in after-hours trading

Qualcomm's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations across the board, with total revenue increasing by 19% year-on-year, mobile chip revenue up 12%, and automotive chip revenue soaring by 68%, far surpassing expectations. The fourth-quarter revenue guidance indicates a maximum increase of 14%, and EPS guidance suggests a maximum increase of 11%, while analysts expect revenue growth of less than 6% and EPS growth of over 2%. Qualcomm announced a new stock repurchase plan for the first time in three years, intending to buy back $15 billion