Breakfast | Tech stocks surged on interest rate cut day, "Seven Sisters of Technology" all rose

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2024.11.08 00:04
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected but sent hawkish signals. Some Trump trades cooled off, with DJT plunging 23% and dropping another 5% in after-hours trading. Meta rose 3.44%, Tesla increased by 2.9%, Alphabet-A was up 2.4%, NVIDIA rose 2.25%, Apple gained 2.14%, Amazon increased by 1.43%, and Microsoft rose 1.25%

"Federal Reserve rate cut day" and "the day after Trump's victory," the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, NVIDIA, and Amazon all hit new highs during the session, with the Nasdaq closing up over 1.5% to lead the gains. Chip stocks, AI concept stocks, and technology stocks all rose collectively. The telecommunications, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains, while financials, industrials, and energy were the only sectors to decline. The Philadelphia Bank Index, which rose over 10% yesterday, fell back to close down 2.68%. The China concept index once rose 4.3%, significantly outperforming the U.S. stock market, with XPeng closing up 15.61%. Solar stocks rebounded, Trump Media & Tech fell nearly 23%, and Tesla rose nearly 3%, accumulating a 22.27% gain over three days.

Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, Powell takes a stand: I won't resign even if Trump pressures me

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with the statement from the monetary policy meeting reiterating that the risks to employment and inflation are generally balanced and a firm commitment to supporting full employment, but removed the phrase "more confident in inflation sustainably moving toward 2%" and added that the evaluation of the labor market conditions has become more accommodative. "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Trump's election has sparked market enthusiasm and pushed up long-term interest rates, raising new questions for the Federal Reserve about whether to slow down rate cuts.

Powell stated that the fight against inflation is not over, core inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the labor market continues to cool very slowly. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates, but if inflation cools stagnantly and the economy is strong, rate cuts can be slower. In the short term, the U.S. election has no impact on monetary policy, but future fiscal policy impacts will be considered, as the U.S. deficit and fiscal policy are economic headwinds. Powell made it clear that even if Trump asks him to resign as Federal Reserve Chairman, he will not "be forced out" under legal protection. Earlier reports indicated that Trump intends for Powell to complete his term, which expires in May 2026, "but he could change his mind at any time."

At the Federal Reserve's press conference, Chairman Powell stated clearly that if "President-elect" Trump asks him to leave, he will not resign. Previously, CNN reported that a senior advisor to Trump revealed that Trump might allow Powell to complete his remaining term. Federal Reserve observers had speculated that if Trump forced Powell to resign, Powell would step down before his term ends in May 2026. However, Powell's response left no doubts in the market; he will serve until the end of his term. Analysts noted that Powell was once a lawyer. Powell is very firm against any political threats facing the Federal Reserve. He is clearly prepared to withstand any political pressure they face. Some analysts also suggested that it remains to be seen whether Trump himself will respond to Powell's comments that the president has no authority to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman or Vice Chairman.

U.S. labor costs unexpectedly rise sharply, inflation concerns resurface

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that U.S. labor costs unexpectedly rose sharply in the third quarter, far exceeding earlier expectations this year, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

The preliminary value of non-farm unit labor costs in the U.S. for the third quarter was an annualized increase of 1.9%, significantly higher than the expected 1%. The previous quarter's figures were substantially revised, with the second quarter's non-farm unit labor cost increase revised from 0.4% to 2.4%. Unit labor costs refer to the costs that businesses pay to employees to produce one unit of outputFrom July to September in the third quarter, the annualized growth rate of productivity was 2.2%, similar to the increase in the second quarter. Productivity measures the output per hour of non-farm business employees.

Year-on-year, productivity growth in the third quarter was 2%, the slowest pace in over a year. Meanwhile, unit labor costs rose 3.4% year-on-year, the highest level since the end of 2022.

In the third quarter, the growth rate of inflation-adjusted hourly wages accelerated to 3%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter that wage growth exceeded inflation.

Putin congratulates Trump on being elected President of the United States, stating that his remarks on the Ukraine conflict are worth noting

On November 7 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on being elected President of the United States during the plenary session of the 21st annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. Putin stated that he is willing to restore contact with Western leaders if they show initiative. He also noted that Trump's remarks during the campaign regarding the Ukraine conflict are worth paying attention to. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated early on the 8th that Putin's congratulations to Trump can be seen as an official congratulation, and it is still unclear when and on what agenda a call between Putin and Trump will take place.

Intel CEO buys company shares before Trump's victory, with a paper gain of 15%

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger "voted" for his own company on U.S. election day. On November 4, Gelsinger purchased 11,150 shares of Intel stock for $251,200, at an average price of $22.53 per share. According to a form he submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, he currently holds 105,033 shares of Intel stock in his personal account. He also holds 540,840 shares through a trust. Reports indicate that he purchased the shares on the open market before the first polling stations opened for the U.S. election, and well before the news of Trump's victory over Harris was announced. Intel's stock, along with the three major U.S. stock indices, soared afterward. The recent trading price of the stock was $25.97, representing a paper gain of 15% compared to the shares Gelsinger purchased earlier.

NVIDIA hits a new high, with a market value of $3.65 trillion

NVIDIA's largest customers, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, have all committed to increasing capital expenditures in the coming year. Data shows that these four companies invested a total of $59 billion in data center equipment and other fixed assets in the third quarter, setting a quarterly record.

Before NVIDIA's earnings report on November 20, the earnings reports from large tech companies painted a positive picture. NVIDIA's stock price fell from a peak in June to a low in August, with its market value shrinking by nearly $900 billion due to concerns about its return on investment in artificial intelligence and delays in the launch of its new Blackwell chip. Subsequently, as CEO Jensen Huang assured that Blackwell's production was on track, their output rebounded, and strong recent evidence of AI spending further alleviated concerns, leading to a recovery in the stock price