This week's key agenda: Tencent and Alibaba earnings reports are coming! China's October financial and economic data, Powell's speech, and U.S. inflation data

From November 11 to November 17, key financial events overview, all times are in Beijing time:

This week focuses on: China's October monetary and economic data, U.S. October CPI and PPI, Powell's speech, and the European Central Bank's release of the minutes from the October monetary policy meeting. Companies such as NetEase, JD Group, Tencent Holdings, Bilibili, and Alibaba will disclose their financial reports.

In addition, the central bank will conduct Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, the U.S. will release October retail data, and Japan will announce third-quarter GDP.

China's October Financial and Economic Data and MLF Operations

• From November 11 to 15, China will intermittently release financial data for October, including social financing and new RMB loans.

On November 8, the People's Bank of China released the 2024 third-quarter report on the implementation of China's monetary policy. The report mentioned in Column 1 that the statistical caliber of money supply needs to be dynamically improved. Personal demand deposits and reserves of non-bank payment institutions can be considered for inclusion in M1 statistics, and M2 statistics should be adjusted in a timely manner based on the changes in the liquidity of financial instruments. The central bank is currently studying a plan to revise the statistics of money supply and will release it at an appropriate time in the future.

Data released last month showed that China's new social financing in September was 3.76 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 1.59 trillion yuan. The rebound in the stock market drove the M2 growth rate to rise to 6.8%, and the negative scissors difference between M1 and M2 growth rates expanded.

CITIC Securities analysis indicated that the social financing in September met expectations, but credit demand remained weak, with government bonds providing strong support. High base + insufficient effective credit demand led to a year-on-year decrease in credit in September, with the increment falling below the average level of the past five years. On the corporate side, insufficient real demand continued to push up bills. On the retail side, residents' ability and willingness to leverage remain weak, but after the reduction in existing mortgage rates, the phenomenon of early repayment has eased somewhat.

• On Friday at 10:00, China will release economic data for October, including national real estate development, retail sales of consumer goods, and housing prices in 70 cities.

Data released last month showed that from January to September, real estate development investment in China fell by 10.1%, and the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 17.1% year-on-year; boosted by the good sales of automobiles and home appliances, the growth rate of China's retail sales of consumer goods rebounded in September.

Ping An Securities Chief Economist Zhong Zhengsheng believes that since October, the recovery slope of China's economy has improved, and the effects of incremental policies have become apparent. First, infrastructure and real estate investment funds have improved for four consecutive weeks, accelerating physical workload and aiding the recovery of raw material production. Second, consumption promotion policies such as trade-in programs and reductions in mortgage rates have helped restore residents' consumption of goods, which also supports the production of consumer goods such as textiles and home appliances Thirdly, the effects of the new real estate policy are being released, with the year-on-year decline in new home sales area significantly narrowing, and the year-on-year sales area of second-hand homes turning positive. At the same time, the recovery slope of exports has increased, driven by the "rush to export" effect, with China's port cargo and container throughput recovering rapidly year-on-year.

• At 9:20 on Friday, the central bank will also conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation.

Last month, the People's Bank of China conducted a 700 billion yuan MLF operation, with the interest rate remaining at 2.00%. In that month, 789 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 89 billion yuan.

On October 28, the People's Bank of China announced: it has decided to activate the open market repurchase agreement tool from now on. The operation targets primary dealers in the open market, and operations will be conducted once a month in principle, with a term not exceeding 1 year. This is the central bank's introduction of a new tool following temporary reverse repos and government bond transactions this year.

U.S. October CPI and PPI Data, Powell's Speech

• At 21:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. will release October CPI data, and October PPI data will be released at 21:30 on Thursday.

Data released last month showed that the U.S. September CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, slowing from the previous value of 2.5%, but exceeding the expected value of 2.3%; the September core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy costs) rose 3.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations and the previous value of 3.2%. The U.S. September PPI was flat month-on-month at 0%, lower than the expected value of 0.1% and the previous value of 0.2%.

On the afternoon of the same day, Trump stated during an appearance at the Detroit Economic Club: "In fact, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates a bit too quickly. The rate cuts have been too large, and it is well known that this is a political maneuver they are trying to take before the election."

• At 4:00 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech.

This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as the market expected. In the post-meeting press conference, Powell stated that the fight against inflation is not over, core inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the job market continues to cool very slowly. "The Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates, but if inflation cools stagnantly and the economy is strong, it can lower rates more slowly. In the short term, the U.S. election has no impact on monetary policy, and future fiscal policy impacts will be taken into account; the U.S. deficit and fiscal policy are economic headwinds."

Although the Fed did not hint at pausing actions next, Wall Street's bets on pausing rate cuts seem to be quietly rising. Goldman Sachs currently expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at meetings in December, January, and March next year, and then cut rates by 25 basis points in June and September next year. Previously, Goldman Sachs predicted cuts in May and June.

The CME tool on the 9th showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate remaining in the range of 4.5% to 4.75% until January is only nearly 22%, meaning that the probability of pausing rate cuts in January is slightly over 78%. **

• In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will also speak in succession:

• On Tuesday at 23:00, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at a banking conference;
• On Wednesday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on fintech and artificial intelligence, and at 06:30, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak;
• On Thursday at 01:30, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak, and at 02:30, 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President George will speak.
• On Friday at 05:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak.

ECB October Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the ECB will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting.

Last month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, marking the third rate cut in this easing cycle.

As inflation data has fallen below the 2% target, and economic data continues to be weak, economic growth is becoming an increasing focus for the ECB.

• On the same day at 18:00, the European Commission will release the revised annual GDP figure for the Eurozone for the third quarter.

The preliminary year-on-year GDP figure for the Eurozone in the third quarter released last month was 0.9%, exceeding expectations, with Germany avoiding recession, France accelerating growth, Spain maintaining strength, but Italy remaining flat. After the data was released, traders reduced bets on ECB rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in December estimated at about 25%.

Tencent and Alibaba Earnings Reports Coming!

In the Hong Kong stock market, NetEase-S, JD Group-SWR, Tencent Holdings, JD Logistics, Geely Automobile-R, Bilibili-W, Alibaba-W, Lenovo Group and others will disclose their latest earnings reports next week.

In the U.S. stock market, Tiger Brokers (TIGR), Tencent Holdings ADR (TCEHY), JD (JD), NetEase (NTES), Lenovo Group (LNVGF), Bilibili (BILI), Alibaba (BABA) and others will disclose their latest earnings reports next week.

Additionally, MINISO (MNSO) may release its earnings report next week, but the official website has not disclosed relevant information yet.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• At 7:50 Beijing time on Monday, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the Monetary Policy Meeting members for October.

On October 31, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%, in line with market expectations.

The Bank of Japan stated that due to extremely low real interest rates, if economic and price developments align with its forecasts, it will continue to raise policy rates. The current political situation in Japan will not have a significant impact on prices, and it is crucial to maintain the basic policy stance regardless of changes in the political environment

New Share Opportunities

In the week (November 11 - November 17), there is 1 new stock listed on the A-share market and 1 new stock subscription; there is 1 new stock listed on the US stock market.

A total of 26 new funds were issued during the week (combined statistics for Class A and Class C), including 12 bond funds, 2 mixed funds, 4 stock funds, 9 index funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF).