Bitcoin breaks through $81,000, the expectation in the crypto world: will it keep rising until the "Trump inauguration"?

Trump's victory has completely ignited the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin breaking through $81,000 and Ethereum's market value surpassing that of Bank of America. Analysts believe that this wave of increase may just be beginning and is expected to continue until Trump's inauguration.

On Sunday, Bitcoin rose over 6%, continuing to surge above $81,000 in early trading on Monday, setting a new historical high. Ethereum, as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, saw its price exceed $3,200, with a market value of approximately $383 billion, surpassing that of Bank of America.

Since Trump's victory, Bitcoin has risen over $10,000, outperforming the returns from U.S. stocks and gold during the same period. Year-to-date, driven by strong demand for spot ETFs and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has increased by over 90%.

In the days following the U.S. election, Bitcoin ETFs once again witnessed a massive influx of funds. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) set a record for nearly $1.4 billion in net inflows in a single day last Thursday.

Trump will support cryptocurrencies as a key part of his campaign, promising to protect and enhance the U.S. cryptocurrency industry and to end the SEC's crackdown on cryptocurrencies. His comprehensive victory is seen as the most favorable outcome for crypto assets.

Standard Chartered believes that the Trump administration will fulfill its promises, and any changes in cryptocurrency policy may be advanced early to leverage the Republican control of Congress before the midterm elections in November 2026.

Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to continue rising and to hit $100,000 by the end of the year, predicting that the total market value of cryptocurrencies will grow from the current $2.5 trillion to $10 trillion by the end of 2026.

Aiming for $100,000 by year-end, reaching $125,000 before Trump's inauguration?

Standard Chartered believes that Trump may introduce a series of policies to reshape the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, specifically including the following four aspects:

Abolishing SAB 121: The SEC's guidance document SAB 121 requires entities acting as custodians of digital assets to list these assets on their balance sheets and create equivalent liabilities. The repeal of SAB 121 is expected to pave the way for institutional investors to further adopt digital assets;

Passage of stablecoin legislation: Stablecoins are becoming an important use case for digital assets in the real world. In the past 12 months, three significant bills aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for banks to issue stablecoins have been submitted to the House, but more progress is expected under the Trump administration in early 2025;

Change in SEC leadership: Under the current chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has taken a firm stance on digital assets Trump clearly stated during his campaign that he would replace Gensler;
Possibility of a Bitcoin Reserve Fund: Although this is a low-probability event, Trump mentioned in July that he would retain the Bitcoin held by the government (then at 210,000 BTC), a move that could have a significant impact on the price surge of this small asset class.

Given the current momentum after the election, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick expects $90,000 to be the next target for Bitcoin, likely to be easily achieved before November 29, and then expected to reach $100,000 before December 27.

Meanwhile, financial blog Zerohedge predicts Bitcoin will peak at $125,000 by the end of the year, and if Bitcoin cannot achieve this target by December 31, it is expected to reach it by January 20, as many Trump trades peaked on Inauguration Day, January 20, after the 2016 election. Zerohedge also noted that another key date to watch is December 10, when the Microsoft board will vote on whether to invest in Bitcoin.

In the medium term, Kendrick believes the strong momentum in cryptocurrencies will continue, with Bitcoin expected to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and Ethereum reaching $10,000.

Futures Premium Soars, Open Interest Above $90,000 Hits Record High

In the derivatives market, such as futures and options, bets on further increases in Bitcoin have surged.

The CME derivatives exchange offers Bitcoin futures contracts, which are a popular way for U.S. institutions to bet on the future price of Bitcoin. Vetle Lunde, head of K33 Research, told the media that as of Friday, the CME premiums for Ethereum and Bitcoin averaged 14.5% and 14%, respectively, compared to 7% before the election, and had mostly hovered below 10% for much of the past six months.

In the options market, there are large open interest contracts at the $90,000 level, with 4,584 BTC expiring on November 29 and 6,833 BTC on December 27; for the critical $100,000 level, the open interest for contracts expiring on December 27 is 9,461 BTC.

At the Deribit derivatives exchange, open interest contracts for Bitcoin prices exceeding $90,000 have increased to over $2.8 billion, setting a new record.