East Asia United Investment: What is the impact of Trump's election on the future economic market?

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, East Asia Union Investment stated that with Trump elected as President of the United States, his advocated policies such as increasing tariffs and reducing immigration may trigger inflation, affect economic growth, and lead to tensions in global trade relations. During the campaign, Trump proposed imposing tariffs of 10%-20% on all imported goods, with tariffs on some Chinese products potentially reaching as high as 60%. He also intends to implement stricter immigration rules, including restrictions on work visas and student visas. Increasing tariffs, reducing immigration, and the uncertainty of investment planning may all put pressure on the economy.

However, how much of Trump's agenda can actually be implemented depends on whether the House of Representatives also falls into Republican hands. If the House also falls into Republican hands, Trump will be able to govern more according to his wishes, which will have a significant impact on the fiscal deficit and budget. Without Democratic obstruction, Trump could advance plans to cut the top corporate tax rate from 21% to 15-20%, a move that could significantly increase the deficit. Additionally, there may be a need for extra stimulus measures to cushion the impact on economic growth from policies such as increased tariffs. If the Democrats ultimately win control of the House, the impact on the fiscal deficit would be relatively minor.

Trump's policies will drive up costs, disrupt supply chains, and tighten labor markets, which may lead to a resurgence of inflation and potentially affect the pace of interest rate cuts. However, Trump favors loose monetary policy and believes it will force Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to accelerate interest rate cuts, or increase inflationary pressures, complicating interest rate trends. Trump is more likely to intervene in Federal Reserve policies, challenging the independence of the central bank once again.

As Trump's foreign policy becomes more unpredictable, the global political and economic trade order may become more ambiguous or even require reordering, significantly increasing the risk of misjudgment in the context of great power competition.

If Trump fulfills his promises after taking office, extending the "Trump Tax Cuts" implemented since 2017, relaxing market regulations, and easing merger and acquisition regulatory rules and approval times, his team expects the stock market to perform well in the short term. However, in the long run, due to slowing economic growth, rising inflation and government bond yields, and heightened geopolitical tensions leading to risk aversion, the stock market may weaken over time.

Currently, East Asia Union will view any short-term strength as an opportunity to profit and will buy stocks in banks, traditional energy, and technology giants at low levels. These sectors are expected to benefit from Trump's policies, including relaxing financial regulatory oversight and providing tax incentives for oil and gas drilling.

As for fixed income, U.S. Treasury bonds will determine the overall performance of Asian investment-grade dollar bonds, which are more susceptible to macro risk sentiment, especially from the stock market. However, Trump's victory has a relatively minor impact on Chinese bonds denominated in dollars, as most issuers are not exporters and can avoid the impact of Trump's tariff policies.

Trump's entry into the White House is favorable for overall risk sentiment. If Congress is ultimately controlled jointly by both parties, the pressure on U.S. Treasury bond yields will be relatively less than if Congress is completely controlled by the Republicans. High-yield bonds are expected to outperform investment-grade bonds