Ningde Zeng Yuqun: Musk doesn't understand batteries, the "zero-carbon" grid will be "10 times" larger than the electric vehicle battery business

Recently, the founder and chairman of battery giant CATL, Zeng Yuqun, stated in an interview with Reuters that Musk's bet on the 4680 cylindrical battery "will fail and will never succeed."

Currently, Tesla's autonomous driving technology still has significant uncertainties regarding safety. Zeng Yuqun said, "Musk may think it will take five years, but if you believe his two-year timeline, then you are in big trouble."

Zeng Yuqun expects that CATL's business of developing and managing "zero-carbon" grids could be "ten times" larger than supplying electric vehicle batteries.

In September, Zeng Yuqun also pointed out that the European battery manufacturing industry faces three major challenges: design, process flow, and equipment shortages. This makes it impossible for Europe and the U.S. to produce good batteries.

Zeng Yuqun: Musk doesn't know how to make batteries

Tesla relies on cameras and artificial intelligence for its autonomous driving technology to reduce costs and achieve high sales.

This strategy differs from many competitors, who prefer to use multi-layer redundancy technology in autonomous vehicles to ensure higher safety and operate them for taxi or delivery services.

Zeng Yuqun explicitly questioned Tesla's use of the 4680 cylindrical battery during the interview. He believes that Musk's bet on cylindrical batteries (the 4680) "will fail and will never succeed." He had previously communicated with Musk in Beijing in April.

"We had a very intense debate. He was silent because he doesn't know how to make batteries. This is about electrochemistry, while he is good at chips, software, hardware, and mechanics."

The 4680 battery, with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm, represents Tesla's next-generation battery technology. The core highlights of this battery technology include large cell size, full tab design, and dry battery technology, aimed at improving energy density, fast charging advantages, and safety while reducing battery costs.

Zeng Yuqun stated that CATL's goal is to reshape itself as a green energy supplier and significantly reduce the costs of developing electric vehicles, thereby disrupting the economic model of the automotive industry that drives its growth. Zeng Yuqun expects that the business of developing and managing "zero-carbon" grids could be "ten times" larger than supplying electric vehicle batteries.

The "zero-carbon" grid system includes solar energy, wind energy, energy storage, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems. In 2023, CATL's revenue from power battery systems reached 285.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.57%— if Zeng Yuqun can realize his "ten times" vision, CATL's "zero-carbon grid" business scale could exceed 3 trillion yuan.

He stated that CATL's goal is to create a large independent energy system capable of powering a large data center or even a city

Musk's Estimates for R&D Time Are Too Aggressive

Zeng Yuqun also revealed that Musk often gives unrealistic estimates for R&D timelines; for example, a technology that should take five years to complete, he might claim can be achieved in two years.

"I asked him why, and he told me he wants to push people."

Recently, Musk promised to launch fully autonomous Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by 2025 and plans to release a self-driving "Cybercab" model without a steering wheel and pedals in 2026.

Although Tesla's technological roadmap and strategic goals have attracted significant investor attention, Musk's consistent "aggressive" commitments may lead investors to be skeptical about the realization of these promises, especially given that the development of Tesla's autonomous driving technology has taken years and is still not fully mature.

Zeng Yuqun stated:

"He might think it takes five years, but if you believe his two-year timeline, then you are in big trouble."