The unexpected losers after Trump's election — millions of homebuyers in the United States
The mortgage loan interest rate in the United States has risen a cumulative 72 basis points over the past six weeks, marking the largest increase in two years, with rates rising in six out of the last eight weeks. As a result, the mortgage loan interest rate has reversed all the declines that occurred before the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September
Last week, mortgage rates in the United States continued to rise, extending the upward trend that began after Trump's victory in the presidential election.
According to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday, the contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by 5 basis points to 6.86% for the week ending November 8, the highest level since July.
U.S. mortgage rates have risen a total of 72 basis points over the past six weeks, marking the largest increase in two years, with rates rising in six of the past eight weeks. As a result, mortgage rates have reversed all the declines that occurred before the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September.
For the week ending November 1, the MBA's application index fell by 11%, marking six consecutive weeks of decline.
U.S. mortgage rates move in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields. It is worth noting that the MBA data is as of last week, and this week, Treasury yields have further increased.
Since Trump's election as the next U.S. president, the market has anticipated that this will lead to tax cuts and deregulation, with the U.S. government increasing debt supply to cover trillions of dollars in deficits, resulting in a surge in Treasury yields. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement significant easing measures are fading, and the U.S. Treasury market is signaling that Trump's return to the White House could trigger a new wave of inflation.
The surge in U.S. mortgage rates means that the hopes of millions of American homebuyers are being impacted. With home prices high, they need borrowing costs to decrease in order to purchase homes. The sharp rise in U.S. mortgage rates is expected to worsen home sales and lead to a significant number of properties remaining unsold.
In the October Fannie Mae survey, only 20% of respondents indicated that now is a good time to buy a home, a significant drop from 60% four years ago