Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Tesla's Self-Driving "Catfish Effect" Catalyzes Domestic Smart Driving Development (with Concept Stocks)

Yesterday, after Tesla's FSD was authorized to enter China, there were rumors about SAIC being involved in Robotaxi. Currently, it is understood that Tesla and SAIC have communicated twice, and Geely has also had discussions, but there is no clear conclusion or details yet. From the following points of feasibility:

1. Feasibility of SAIC: Since April this year, there have been rumors about SAIC, BYD, and Geely. Whether from the urgency of SAIC's intelligence or the establishment of Tesla's factory and local storage center in Shanghai, it suggests that once cooperation occurs, SAIC is more likely, and it can also contribute revenue to the government.

2. Feasibility of Robotaxi: First, it has operational qualifications; SAIC has Saike Intelligent to operate Robotaxi, which has the operational qualifications and existing FSD carrier; second, cooperation through Robotaxi does not conflict with its own intelligent passenger car models, but can instead quickly implement Robotaxi and establish a foothold in the intelligent commercial vehicle sector.

3. Industry trend: Today (November 12), two ministries issued the "Action Plan for Reducing Costs and Improving Quality and Efficiency in Transportation Logistics," which also mentioned accelerating the development of intelligent connected (autonomous driving) vehicle access and pilot projects, orderly promoting the demonstration application of autonomous driving and unmanned vehicles in key areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Under continuous policy catalysis, the industrial logic is relatively smooth.

If the cooperation materializes, on one hand, for Tesla, if the Robotaxi cooperation model with SAIC runs smoothly, it may have certain replicability, allowing collaboration with other domestic brands and further enhancing the penetration rate of FSD; on the other hand, for SAIC, empowering through FSD can also achieve a curve-over-taking in the intelligent track.

However, there are also certain uncertainties: on one hand, the core of FSD is algorithm software and data capability. In terms of data, Tesla lacks local training data compared to domestic car companies, and the establishment of data centers has not yet been clarified. How to solve the data issues related to the FSD authorized Robotaxi model in subsequent cooperation; on the other hand, the acceptance of the FSD authorized black box model by car companies.

Tesla accelerates its entry into China, and the "catfish effect" catalyzes the development of domestic intelligent driving:

The release scope of V13 is not limited to the Americas; markets such as China and Europe will also be updated simultaneously. V13.3 is the first version of Tesla's full FSD entering China, which can be regarded as a core moment for accelerating intelligent driving and is also a key factor in catalyzing intelligent driving β.

Autonomous driving-related concept companies:

Baidu Group (09888): Baidu Apollo is Baidu's open platform for autonomous driving, possessing leading autonomous driving technology and rich testing experience, making it a leading company in the L4 level autonomous driving field.

ZhiXing Automotive Technology (01274): ZhiXing Automotive Technology is a Chinese provider of autonomous driving solutions, focusing on autonomous driving domain controllers. The company has commercialized L2 to L2+ level autonomous driving solutions (L2+ level is not an official classification under SAE (1) standards) and is developing L2 to L4 level autonomous driving solutions for OEMs Nexteer Automotive (01316): The company, along with its subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the Group), is primarily engaged in the design and manufacture of steering and powertrain systems, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and autonomous driving (AD) as well as component businesses for automotive manufacturers and other automotive-related companies.

Gojek (09680): The company is a leading smart mobility service platform in China and a pioneer in the commercialization of Robotaxi (autonomous driving taxis), with Robotaxi services launched in the major first-tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Horizon Robotics-W (09660): According to data from the Gaogong Intelligent Automotive Research Institute, Horizon ranked first in the market share of intelligent driving solutions for domestic brand passenger cars in China in the first half of this year, with a market share of 28.65%; in the front-view integrated computing solution market (L2ADAS), Horizon ranked first with a market share of 33.73%. Caitong Securities pointed out that Horizon's revenue composition is mainly from automotive solutions, with over 270 models accumulated as of the first half of the year.

Black Sesame Technologies (02533): In the first half of 2024, benefiting from the gradual increase in mass-produced models, Navigation on Autopilot (NoA) has begun mass production in certain models and cities. The chips, algorithms, software, and toolchains have matured, and the Group has made significant progress in the fields of autonomous driving and smart vehicle solutions. In the first half of 2024, the overall revenue scale increased by 69.2% compared to the same period last year, and the order backlog also achieved a significant breakthrough, with the commercialization process continuing to accelerate and the core advantages in the autonomous driving chip field becoming increasingly prominent.

Suteng Juchuang (02498): In the first half of this year, Suteng Juchuang's laser radar sales were approximately 243,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 415.7%, of which the sales of vehicle-mounted laser radar were approximately 234,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 487.7%. In the second quarter of 2024, Suteng Juchuang's laser radar sales were approximately 123,000 units, with vehicle-mounted laser radar sales of approximately 118,300 units. As of June 30, 2024, the historical cumulative total sales of laser radar were approximately 583,500 units, with cumulative sales of vehicle-mounted laser radar approximately 518,300 units.

GAC Group (02238): In May 2021, GAC Group made a strategic investment of over $300 million in Didi Autonomous Driving, which was valued at over $4 billion; in October 2023, GAC Capital and Guangzhou Development Zone Investment Group increased their investment, completing a financing of $149 million. This time, GAC Group again bet $298 million, bringing the total investment from GAC-related capital to nearly $800 million in Didi Autonomous Driving by 2024