Bridgewater Associates CIO: There is still room for the U.S. stock market to operate, but it is no longer the best investment
Bridgewater Associates CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour stated that although there is still room for growth in the U.S. stock market, now is not the best time to invest. She pointed out that investors' exposure to the stock market has reached the highest level in 11 years, and many investors have an excessively high proportion of stocks, which may not withstand market shocks. She advised clients to increase bonds, gold, and other commodities in their portfolios to cope with future economic fluctuations. While the current stock market situation is similar to that of 1998, she warned investors not to be overly concentrated in the stock market
Despite the hot stock market, Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-CIO of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, stated that this does not mean it is the best time to invest in the stock market.
Karniol-Tambour said on Tuesday, "I see very few people really needing to buy more stocks."
After last week's presidential election, the stock market soared to historic highs, and Wall Street strategists raised their expectations for the stock market levels by the end of this year.
Data from Bank of America shows that investors are increasing their exposure to U.S. stocks to the highest level in 11 years, betting on the optimism surrounding economic growth during President Trump's administration.
"You can't ignore that people's exposure to the stock market today is vastly different from before," Karniol-Tambour said. "People's exposure to the stock market is very, very high."
She is concerned that many investors are no longer able to withstand shocks as they once could. She pointed out that the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio has now turned into 80% stocks and 20% bonds.
Karniol-Tambour said she tells clients that they should invest in something that might help them in the next marginal action under growth or inflation shock scenarios, whether it's bonds, gold, or other commodities like oil.
She mentioned that bonds can better protect portfolios in growth shock scenarios (such as the outbreak of war or a financial crisis), while gold, oil, and other commodities are favored in the event of an inflation rebound. "I like to have both in my portfolio," Karniol-Tambour added.
She stated that there are still "many reasons to believe" that the current stock market "has room to rise," noting that the current situation is very similar to 1998, when the S&P 500 rose by 28% and the Federal Reserve was easing monetary policy. "I think we have a long way to go in our current expansion," she said.
However, she pointed out that after 1998 came the bursting of the internet bubble. "Clearly, the bubble that burst in 1999 had a long-lasting negative impact on people's portfolios, and even if you are optimistic about the stock market, you don't want your portfolio to be too concentrated."
The larger tariffs, immigration policies, and tax cuts proposed by Trump have also raised concerns about the potential impact on the U.S. deficit and the possibility of inflation rising again. But Karniol-Tambour said, "The market is basically telling you that Trump is better for growth and also better for inflation."