Does Trump really have a positive impact on Bitcoin? Not necessarily

As a supporter of Bitcoin, does Trump really benefit Bitcoin?

On November 15th, Eastern Time, James Mackintosh, a senior market columnist for The Wall Street Journal, stated that Bitcoin may not benefit from looser regulations, as Bitcoin itself is already almost free from regulatory pressure. After the relaxation of regulations, the increased demand for other cryptocurrencies in the market may lead to capital outflow from the Bitcoin market.

Mackintosh explained that looser regulations drive up commodity prices by attracting more buyers, which is especially true for cryptocurrencies—cryptocurrencies have almost no fundamental support and are entirely driven by supply and investor sentiment, so more buyers mean higher prices.

However, Bitcoin, as the "mother coin" of cryptocurrencies, is somewhat special:

Unlike most other coins, Bitcoin is viewed as a commodity rather than a cryptocurrency. Therefore, Bitcoin is almost free from regulatory pressure. Consequently, when Trump relaxed regulations on cryptocurrencies after taking office, the increased demand for other cryptocurrencies in the market may lead to capital outflow from the Bitcoin market.

Additionally, Mackintosh refuted three reasons why some investors are bullish on Bitcoin: First, as mentioned above, Trump's relaxation of regulations on the crypto market does not benefit Bitcoin; second, Trump's promised "strategic national Bitcoin reserve" does not align with the economic needs of the United States and may not be realized; finally, Bitcoin is not a good hedge against inflation and cannot offset the potential high inflation that Trump may bring.

Currently, Bitcoin's total market capitalization has surpassed all companies except for the top six publicly listed companies in the United States. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has risen 0.86% today, priced at $88,014.59 per coin.

Mackintosh: The Three Reasons for Being Bullish on Bitcoin Are All Wrong

So, why has Bitcoin increased by nearly $500 billion in market capitalization and risen by nearly one-third in less than two weeks since election night, while "altcoins" and the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum, which should have risen, lagged behind? There are three common explanations:

The first explanation is "obvious": Trump clearly supports cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency, so many investors directly bought in. Of course, as mentioned earlier, Mackintosh has refuted this view; what is beneficial for cryptocurrencies is not necessarily beneficial for Bitcoin.

The second explanation is that Trump promised to establish a "strategic national Bitcoin reserve" during his campaign, and some investors believe this could support Bitcoin's price. There are even rumors that other countries may rush to buy Bitcoin before the Trump administration launches a Bitcoin purchasing planHowever, Mackintosh does not agree with this view, because creating a Bitcoin reserve does not align with the economic needs of the United States, which does not rely on foreign exchange reserves to support the dollar, but rather uses "the credit of the U.S. government" to support the dollar.

Mackintosh stated that strategic currency reserves are intended for countries with unstable domestic currency exchange rates or for those that need to convert trade surpluses into overseas assets—clearly, the United States does not fall into either of these categories.

Mackintosh added that even if there were such a need, would Trump really want to divert U.S. resources from spending or tax cuts to buy Bitcoin? Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, also agrees with Mackintosh's view, stating:

"If the Treasury or the Federal Reserve indicated they wanted to buy Bitcoin to support the dollar, that would be very detrimental to the dollar, just like if they said they wanted to buy lollipops or toothpaste to support the dollar. The dollar is supported by the 'full faith and credit' of the United States."

The third explanation is that the bond market has been betting that Trump's policies will lead to higher inflation, and some Bitcoin buyers believe that Bitcoin can hedge against inflation.

However, Mackintosh stated that Bitcoin has never been a good inflation hedge—Bitcoin is more closely related to speculative stocks rather than traditional inflation hedges like gold or inflation-linked bonds. Mackintosh wrote:

"Bitcoin relies more on animal spirits than on economic analysis, no wonder it likes Trump."