News

Wallstreetcn
2024.11.17 04:43

Since Trump's/Republicans' sweep on November 5, the fate of global stock markets has shown significant divergence: the U.S. stock market surged, rising by $1.8 trillion, while on the other hand, emerging markets saw a market value evaporation of $500 billion, and the EAFE (Europe, Australia, and Far East) market value dropped by $0.6 trillion. Investors are all-in on Trump 2.0, with the dollar (real effective exchange rate) currently at its highest level in 55 years, and the ratio of the U.S. stock market to the global stock market is at its highest level in 75 years. Bank of America expects a massive labor hoarding and pre-tariff inventory accumulation in the U.S. in Q4 2024/Q1 2025—this means that U.S. GDP data in Q4 2024/Q1 2025 will see explosive growth, best captured by going long on the dollar; meanwhile, Wall Street is also pricing in a global economic recession: EAFE stocks are down 8%, the favored India is down 10%, SOX has returned to 5k (near the 200-day moving average), and "blue-collar" semiconductors (ON, MCHP, STM) that rely on global PMI are struggling... Is this trend sustainable?

Source: Wallstreetcn The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.