Projecting the top 20 Big Pharma firms of FY2024
The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant shifts in its hierarchy, with Merck and Pfizer leading in projected revenues for FY2024. AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk are showing remarkable growth rates, indicating a competitive transformation. AstraZeneca's revenue increased by 19% in the first nine months, prompting an upgrade in its growth guidance. Merck and Pfizer are also maintaining steady growth, despite challenges in the post-COVID landscape. The report outlines revenue projections for the top 20 Big Pharma firms, highlighting key financial metrics and growth expectations.
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The continued strength of the GLP-1 market continues to be a market disruptor, but the medications also face complex challenges in terms of accessibility, cost, and market penetration.
AstraZeneca was something of a surprise success story in a landscape where GLP-1 therapies loom large. Its strong product portfolio and performance across key therapeutic areas helped propel total revenue 19% to $39,182 million in the first nine months of the year. Oncology, Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism (CVRM), and Respiratory and Immunology (R&I) saw growth rates of 22%, 21%, and 24% respectively, complemented by 14% growth in rare disease. Key products like Farxiga and Enhertu contributed significantly, with growth rates of 34% and 60% respectively in Q3. AstraZeneca also announced a $2 billion investment in U.S. R&D and manufacturing, and navigated regulatory challenges in China. As a result, AstraZeneca upgraded its full-year 2024 guidance, projecting high teens percentage growth for both Total Revenue and Core EPS.
Leading 2024 in terms of overall revenue areMerck & Co., which continued to maintain a steady trajectory with projected worldwide sales between $63.6 billion and $64.1 billion, demonstrating approximately 5.8% to 6.6% annual growth. The company’s quarterly growth, however, has slowed, from 12% excluding foreign exchange in Q1 to 7% in Q3, indicating potential challenges even as Keytruda sales remain strong. Pfizer also continues to navigate a complex transition in a post-COVID landscape but the company had a standout third quarter despite anticipating an approximately 36% to 39% annual dip owing to decreased COVID-19 product sales.
Here are the full projections.
| Rank | Company | 2023 Revenue | 2024 Projection | Projected Growth | Key Financial Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merck | $60.12B | $63.85B | +6.2% | Q1-Q3: 9%, 7%, 4% growth trajectory; Strong momentum ex-FX (Q1: 12%, Q3: 7%); Guidance: $63.6B-$64.1B |
| 2 | Pfizer | $58.50B | $62.50B | +6.8% | Q3 showing recovery: 31% growth; COVID impact factored into guidance; Recent guidance raise: $61.0B-$64.0B |
| 3 | AstraZeneca | $45.81B | $54.00B | +17.9% | Consistent high-teens growth (Q1-Q3: 19%, 17%, 21%); YTD: $39.18B (+19%); Strong momentum across quarters. Guidance in the ‘high teens.’ |
| 4 | Roche | $51.45B | $53.50B | +4.0% | Q1-Q3: Accelerating growth (2%, 5%, 9%); YTD: 6% CER growth; Mid-single-digit guidance |
| 5 | Johnson & Johnson | $50.93B | $53.48B | +5.0% | Pharma segment steady at 5.5% growth |
| 6 | Sanofi | $46.59B | $52.97B | +13.7% | Accelerating growth (5.7%, 10.2%, 15.7%); Strong Q3: €13.44B; Raised EPS guidance |
| 7 | Novartis | $45.44B | $49.94B | +9.9% | Steady growth (7%, 9%, 10%); Low double-digit guidance; Strong operating income |
| 8 | Bristol-Myers Squibb | $45.01B | $47.44B | +5.4% | Consistent growth (5%, 9%, 8%); ~5% revenue growth guidance; Solid Q2 performance at 9% |
| 9 | Eli Lilly | $34.12B | $45.70B | +33.9% | Market leading Q2/Q3 (36%, 20%); Clear guidance: $45.4B-$46.0B; Strong momentum in key products |
| 10 | Novo Nordisk | $33.71B | $42.50B | +26.1% | Q3: 21% growth; Wegovy sales up 84%; Ozempic sales up 28%; Guidance: 23-27% growth |
| 11 | GSK | $37.73B | $40.23B | +6.6% | Strong H1 (10%, 13%); Q3 moderation to 2%; Guidance: 7-9% turnover growth |
| 12 | Amgen | $28.19B | $33.30B | +18.1% | Consistent 20%+ growth; Q1-Q3: 22%, 20%, 23%; Guidance: $32.8B-$33.8B |
| 13 | Takeda | $30.34B | $30.52B | +0.6% | Strong H1: 14.1%, 13.4% growth; Raised forecast to ¥4,480B; Better than initial flat guidance |
| 14 | Gilead | $27.12B | $27.95B | +3.1% | Q3: 7% growth; Key products growing (Biktarvy +13%); Guidance: $27.8B-$28.1B |
| 15 | Bayer AG | $17.78B | $17.23B | -3.0% | Q3 challenges: 3.6% revenue decline; EBITDA down 25.8%; Cautious 2025 outlook |
| 16 | Teva | $15.85B | $16.30B | +2.8% | Q3: 13% USD growth; Strong product performance; Guidance: $16.1B-$16.5B |
| 17 | Otsuka | $14.32B | $15.25B | +6.5% | Q3: 17% YoY growth; ¥1,730.1B forecast; Positive profit outlook |
| 18 | Viatris | $15.43B | $15.05B | -2.5% | Q3: 3% growth (divestiture-adjusted); Guidance: $14.6B-$15.1B; EBITDA: $5.0B-$5.3B target |
| 19 | CSL | $13.31B | $14.80B | +11.2% | CSL Behring: 14% growth; Seqirus: 4% growth; Strong NPATA growth |
| 20 | Regeneron | $13.12B | $13.85B | +5.6% | Q3: 11% growth; Dupixent sales +23%; Product sales guidance: $27.8B-$28.1B |
Methodology
The revenue projections for 2024 were initially based on financial figures derived from the trailing four quarters of reported revenue and from the companies’ guidance. Data from company reports and finbox.com. For companies offering direct guidance, projections were aligned with the midpoint of the guidance ranges. For companies providing growth-rate guidance rather than specific revenue targets, projections were calculated using the implied growth ranges.
Diversified companies required segment-specific adjustments to accurately estimate pharmaceutical revenue. These adjustments included segment contributions of 63.67% for Johnson & Johnson, 71.6% for Roche, 33.8% for Bayer, 37.6% for Merck KGaA, and 13.0% for Abbott.
