No signs of a bubble! Bitcoin has not yet peaked?
Bitcoin has recently been hitting new historical highs, sparking investor interest. Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit, pointed out that options market data shows traders are bullish on Bitcoin, betting on its potential for a larger rebound. The price of Bitcoin has surpassed $93,000, and the open interest in call options is significantly higher than that in put options, indicating market expectations that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of the year. Sean Farrell from market research firm Fundstrat also stated that there are no signs of a bubble in the current market
In the past few days, Bitcoin has continuously refreshed its historical highs, sparking investor interest, but some are concerned whether it is too late to join the game now.
However, Luuk Strijers, CEO of the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit, pointed out that based on options market data, cryptocurrency derivatives traders appear overwhelmingly bullish, betting that Bitcoin has more room for a rebound.
According to Dow Jones market data, it hit a historical high of over $93,000 per coin on Wednesday and is still trading above $90,000 at the time of writing, up 151% over the past year.
According to Deribit data, for Bitcoin options expiring on December 27, the open interest for call options is about 79,216 contracts, roughly double that of put options (about 39,505 contracts).
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled. Call options give the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at a specified price within a specified time, while put options give the holder the right to sell. When the number of call options exceeds the number of put options, it is generally a bullish signal for the asset price.
Meanwhile, for options expiring on December 27, the open interest for call options with a strike price of $100,000 is the highest, indicating that investors are betting Bitcoin could reach as high as $100,000 before the end of the year.
According to Deribit data, for options expiring on March 28 next year, the open interest for call options is about 40,632 contracts, more than 170% higher than the 14,680 contracts for put options. Among these options, the open interest for call options with strike prices of $120,000, $110,000, and $100,000 is the highest.
“They are preparing for further upside in (Bitcoin),” Strijers said in a phone interview.
Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at market research firm Fundstrat, also agrees with this.
In a recent report, Farrell wrote, while it is possible to see a temporary consolidation in Bitcoin, many of the previous signs indicating a bubble are not present in the current market.
According to CoinGlass data, the annualized funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures (i.e., the cost of leverage) surged to 59% on November 12, the highest level since March this year, before falling back to around 12.9% last Friday.
However, Farrell noted that historical data shows this rate can typically be maintained at levels of 20%-50% for several weeks before losing momentum.
Farrell stated, “As long as it is combined with capital inflows and strong spot demand, this level of leverage can persist.”