Every Nvidia Investor Should Keep an Eye on This Number
Nvidia's stock has surged 187% this year, driven by strong demand for its GPUs amid the AI boom, particularly in its data center segment, which accounted for 88% of its doubled revenue in Q2 of fiscal 2025. However, quarterly sales growth in this segment has slowed from 141% to 16% over the last five quarters. Investors should monitor the upcoming Q3 report on Nov. 20 for signs of recovery in sales growth, especially with the anticipated impact of the new Blackwell chips.
It's no secret that Nvidia (NVDA -1.29%) has surged during the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom, which has customers clamoring for the company's graphics processing units (GPUs).
That has led to soaring revenue in Nvidia's data center segment. In its fiscal 2025 second quarter, ended July 28, total revenue more than doubled year over year to $30 billion, and 88% of those sales came from its data center group.
So it stands to reason that this crucial segment should continue to drive the stock in the near term. The big question is whether Nvidia's shares have more room to run after a massive 187% gain so far this year. And there is one number in particular that can help give investors a clue about what's to come for the stock.
Nvidia's growth has been parabolic
The company hasn't been able to make enough of its H100 and H200 GPU chips to satisfy demand. Now it has its next-generation Blackwell chips in production with sales ramping up. CEO Jensen Huang has said that anticipation for Blackwell "is incredible."
Huang has also said that the company expects to release its latest technology annually. It has already announced that an accelerator dubbed Rubin will arrive in 2026.
Investors will begin to see how Blackwell will affect sales in the fiscal 2025 third-quarter report on Nov. 20. One important data point to watch is Nvidia's data center segment quarterly sales growth. That's because growth has actually decreased over the last five quarterly periods compared to the previous quarter.
Quarter-over-quarter sales growth has slowed from 141% to 16% in the past five periods. Data source: Nvidia. Chart by author.
For the stock to continue its incredible run, that sequential revenue growth needs reverse this trend. At the very least, investors will want the declining growth rate to level out. Blackwell, a next-generation AI accelerator, could make it happen. That's because Nvidia stock has already run up in anticipation of continued growth. Investors should watch that figure to see if the stock gains can continue.