NVIDIA - NVDA.US - Q3 Earnings Preview for Fiscal Year 2025

2025 Fiscal Year Q3 Performance Expectations

The company will release its Q3 performance for the 2025 fiscal year at 2 PM Pacific Time on November 20 (corresponding to 6 AM Beijing Time on November 21). In the last quarter, the company provided guidance for this quarter's performance: a revenue median of $32.5 billion, a GAAP gross margin of 74.4%, and GAAP operating expenses of $4.3 billion, resulting in a net profit of $16.8 billion based on the guidance calculations. Currently, the Bloomberg consensus expectation for FY25Q3 is $33.2 billion in revenue and a 75% gross margin. We believe the company's total revenue for this quarter will be $33.9 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin to 75.1%. The net profit is expected to be $17.8 billion. Among these, the data center business will reach $30 billion in revenue, corresponding to a shipment of 1.1 million H series cards; the gaming business revenue will reach $3 billion; the professional visualization business revenue will reach $480 million; and the automotive business will reach $350 million.

Performance Guidance Expectations

Regarding FY25Q4 performance, the current Bloomberg consensus expectation is $37.2 billion. We understand that the current buy-side consensus expectation is around $38-39 billion. We believe the company will still maintain a relatively conservative performance guidance, expecting the FY25Q4 performance guidance to be $37.5 billion.

TSMC's Positive Guidance Supports Company Revenue Growth in 2026

Considering TSMC's October performance exceeded expectations (a year-on-year increase of 29.2%) and the positive guidance on CoWoS capacity expansion at the earnings call, we expect the company's data center business to still have at least 20% growth in 2026 (FY2027). Demand from sovereign AI and network products is also expected to contribute over $30 billion in revenue next year