Greatly exceeding expectations, is the "convention" failing? NVIDIA's high growth "myth" may be difficult to sustain
NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations, but after its stock price rose over 800% in two years, Wall Street's expectations for its future growth have weakened. The current quarter's revenue forecast is only $400 million higher than analysts' expectations, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum. Although management expressed optimism about demand for new chips, the stock price reaction was not as expected. Market analysts pointed out that NVIDIA needs to provide more significant performance highlights to attract investors
According to Zhitong Finance APP, NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) better-than-expected performance has made most companies envious, but after an over 800% increase in stock price over the past two years, simple "good" is no longer enough for Wall Street. The main issue is that the company's revenue forecast for the current quarter is only $400 million higher than analysts' expectations, marking the second consecutive quarter where NVIDIA's quarterly sales forecast did not exceed analysts' average expectations by $1 billion or more, indicating that the rapid growth momentum driving its rise is quickly fading.
Although management has promised "astonishing" demand for the new Blackwell chip, this has not triggered the significant stock price fluctuations many anticipated, making it evidently much harder to impress investors. On Thursday, the company saw a pre-market drop of 4%, and as of the time of writing, it was down 0.8%.
Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist at LPL Financial, stated, "The market has begun to realize that NVIDIA cannot achieve such outstanding results every quarter." "To see the kind of rebound we've witnessed in recent quarters, you need to deliver real highlights that truly shock people."
Despite the unusually large gap between analysts' highest and lowest sales forecasts for NVIDIA's fourth quarter, the average is relatively close to NVIDIA's forecast, indicating that after several quarters of severe underestimation, Wall Street has finally caught up with NVIDIA's financial performance.
Before NVIDIA's second fiscal quarter ending in July this year, the company's forecasts had exceeded expectations by more than $2 billion for four consecutive quarters, and starting from the second fiscal quarter of 2024, NVIDIA's forecasts exceeded expectations by $3.8 billion, which is astonishing.
Based on trading in the options market, investors had previously been preparing for potential stock price fluctuations of around 8%. NVIDIA's market capitalization is approximately $3.6 trillion, making it the highest-valued company globally and the largest weighted company in the S&P 500 index, meaning its stock price movements could have a significant impact on the index.
However, for Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, the stock price's breather is welcome and "healthy."
Cox said, "This means people are starting to pay attention to the reality that this growth is unsustainable." "We shouldn't expect NVIDIA to continue to outperform as it has in the past. Artificial intelligence isn't going anywhere, but you can't expect indefinite 90% revenue growth."