The significance of Trump's first shot at the market: "Twitter governance" is back

Before taking office, Trump posted on social media about imposing tariffs, and the familiar flavor of "governing by Twitter" has returned. Global traders will need to register for Truth Social to monitor Trump's posts in real-time.

According to a report by CCTV News yesterday, on the 25th local time, U.S. President-elect Trump stated that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, Trump announced an extra 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The market reacted with volatility, the dollar surged briefly, the offshore yuan approached the 7.26 mark against the dollar, and the Mexican peso fell over 1%.

This statement was released by Trump on his social media platform Truth Social, and traders began to prepare for the market turbulence that Trump's return and his "governing by Twitter" style might trigger.

In New York, traders and analysts rushed to their computers after the news broke. A senior analyst at AT Global Markets with 26 years of forex trading experience stated:

The familiar bad situation has reappeared on social media, and Trump's muscle memory from his first term is coming into play.

The good news is that during Trump's four years in office, there were many profitable opportunities here; despite some losses, he still profited from bets against the Mexican peso and the Australian dollar.

Shawn Oh, a stock trader at NH Investment & Securities Ltd in Seoul, said:

After Trump posted on Truth Social, the market fluctuated sharply, reminding us of the extent to which his words can cause volatility and how far they can spread. Trump's social media posts during his first term sometimes triggered sudden market fluctuations, disrupting the work and sleep of global investors, which is typical of the "Trump style."

At least having someone like Bentsen as Treasury Secretary is a relief. I think people will expect Trump to be more cautious than the first time, but there will still be many surprises.

Tsutomu Soma, a trader with 39 years of experience based in Tokyo, is one of those preparing for Trump's return. He stated:

"This is a good trading environment; after Trump is elected president, news headlines will be very important—there will be a lot of speculation and conflicting views about trading."

Analyst Manish Bhargava, over 3,000 miles away in Singapore, is taking a step that global traders may adopt in the coming months:

Registering for Truth Social so that we can closely monitor Trump's social media posts. It is crucial to keep a close eye on his posts, considering Trump's past experience of using social media to convey his unthoughtful ideas and policy intentions, we can anticipate similar patterns in the future.

Analyst Calvin Yeoh from Blue Edge Advisors stated:

The trading market is like participating in an obstacle race, but during Trump's presidency, it was like trading "under mortar fire." Even if you have a direction, it's already difficult enough, but you can't see the real trouble. My strategy is to choose a good direction and then "sell volatility after the news release."

In addition, not only the market but also traders and diplomats have learned lessons from Trump's four years in the White House. Before overreacting to attacks on social media, take a deep breath and wait for the importance of details and negotiations. The market reaction and the Canadian government's response reflect the view that Trump's Truth Social posts are just the first step in negotiations, which may ultimately lead to a result that is less damaging to global trade