TrendForce: In the third quarter, global NAND Flash revenue increased by 4.8% compared to the previous quarter, driven by strong demand for enterprise SSDs

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, the NAND Flash industry is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2% in shipment volume in the third quarter of 2024, but the average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by 7%, driving the overall industry revenue to reach $17.6 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%. The price trends of NAND Flash in different application fields showed divergence in the third quarter of this year. The demand for enterprise SSDs remained strong, pushing prices up nearly 15% quarter-on-quarter, while consumer SSD prices saw a slight increase, but order demand declined compared to the previous quarter. Products for smartphones experienced a significant reduction in orders due to Chinese smartphone brands strictly adhering to low inventory strategies, with contract prices in the third quarter nearly flat compared to the previous quarter. Wafer prices were affected by weak retail market demand, leading to a reversal and decline in contract prices.

The NAND Flash industry will face greater challenges in the fourth quarter. Although enterprise SSD prices are expected to remain stable, contract prices for other product categories have already begun to decline; in addition, consumer brands will reduce inventory before the end of the year, resulting in a significant weakening of order momentum. Therefore, TrendForce expects the overall revenue of the NAND Flash industry in the fourth quarter to decrease by nearly 10% quarter-on-quarter.

Samsung

Analyzing the performance of major NAND Flash brands in the third quarter, Samsung ranked first in revenue. The performance of enterprise SSDs was continuously supported by demand in North America, while shipments of smartphone products declined, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% in the third quarter. However, its ASP increased compared to the previous quarter, with revenue remaining flat at $6.2 billion. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, Samsung's NAND Flash revenue may see a slight decline due to weakening order momentum.

SK Group

SK Group (including SK hynix and Solidigm) ranked second in revenue in the third quarter. Although affected by weak demand for smartphone and PC products, shipments saw a quarter-on-quarter decrease of over 15%, the performance of enterprise SSDs was impressive, significantly boosting the company's profitability. TrendForce noted that the price increase of enterprise SSDs will converge in the fourth quarter, but shipments will remain stable, and SK Group's revenue is expected to remain flat.

The third to fifth rankings in NAND Flash revenue are Kioxia, Micron, and Western Digital/SanDisk (WDC).

Kioxia

In the third quarter, coinciding with the peak production season for American smartphones and an increase in enterprise SSD shipments, Kioxia saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% in shipments, with ASP and revenue also growing. It is expected that with the end of the smartphone production peak season in the fourth quarter, Kioxia's shipment momentum will be affected, and revenue may decrease by over 10% quarter-on-quarter Micron Technology (Micron)

In the third quarter, Micron's overall shipments increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter due to continuous growth across various product lines. Revenue also grew by 26.6% compared to the previous quarter, reaching USD 2.51 billion, driven by an increase in ASP. It is estimated that the decline in shipments for products other than enterprise SSDs may widen in the fourth quarter, resulting in a slight decrease in revenue.

Western Digital (WDC)

In the third quarter, WDC's shipments increased by nearly 15% quarter-over-quarter, outperforming expectations. However, due to a higher proportion of low-end product shipments, its ASP was impacted, and revenue only grew by 7%