UBS Wealth Management: The Hong Kong property market is still dominated by the performance of the mainland and the global economy
UBS Wealth Management's Li Zhiying stated at a press conference that since the comprehensive withdrawal of cooling measures in the Hong Kong property market and the Hong Kong banks following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, there have been new immigrant buyers purchasing high-end residential properties, leading to related transactions, but these are only individual cases. The Hong Kong property market is still dominated by the performance of the mainland and global economies. Li Zhiying pointed out that the global and mainland economies still depend on the actual situation of U.S. tariffs. If U.S. presidential candidate Trump increases tariffs on China by 60%, Sino-U.S. trade relations will deteriorate. The mainland economy also requires further support from the country, so a very optimistic situation in the Hong Kong property market is not expected. Unless there are significant fluctuations in external market conditions, it is estimated that transaction volumes will improve, and property prices will remain stable. She mentioned that UBS expects the U.S. to cut interest rates by 0.25% again in December this year and to cut rates four times next year, each by 0.25%. Since the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong interest rates will follow U.S. interest rate trends. However, in the past period of high interest rate environments, property prices have continued to rise, and even if interest rates are lowered in the future, property prices may not necessarily increase. Li Zhiying also pointed out that the demand for leasing Grade A office space in Hong Kong continues to be under pressure. The work-from-home model since the pandemic has led companies to expand without significantly increasing office space
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, UBS Wealth Management's investment expert Li Zhiying stated at a press conference that since the full withdrawal of cooling measures in the Hong Kong property market and the subsequent interest rate cuts by Hong Kong banks following the Federal Reserve, there have been new immigrant buyers purchasing high-end residential properties, leading to related transactions, but these are only individual cases. The Hong Kong property market is still dominated by the performance of the mainland and global economies.
Li Zhiying pointed out that the global and mainland economies still depend on the actual situation of U.S. tariffs. If U.S. presidential candidate Trump imposes a 60% tariff on China, Sino-U.S. trade relations will deteriorate. The mainland economy also requires further support from the country, so she does not expect a very optimistic situation in the Hong Kong property market. Unless there are significant fluctuations in external market conditions, it is estimated that transaction volumes will improve, and property prices will remain stable.
She mentioned that UBS expects the U.S. to cut interest rates by 0.25% again in December this year and to reduce rates four times next year, each by 0.25%. Since the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong interest rates will follow U.S. interest rate trends. However, in the past period of high interest rate environments, property prices have continued to rise, and even if interest rates are lowered in the future, property prices may not necessarily increase.
Li Zhiying also indicated that the demand for leasing Grade A office space in Hong Kong continues to be under pressure. The work-from-home model since the pandemic has led companies to expand without significantly increasing office space