Lijia Ge: The initial effects of interest rate cuts and market rescue measures are evident, expecting the annual decline in Hong Kong property prices to narrow to 5.88%

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Chen Haichao, head of the research department at Li Jia Ge Real Estate, stated that factors such as interest rate cuts and market rescue measures have initially had an immediate positive impact on the property market, stimulating a slight rebound in housing prices. However, there are also uncertainties regarding the new U.S. president's inauguration, raising doubts about whether the momentum for Hong Kong's housing price recovery can be sustained. The latest data released by the Rating and Valuation Department today shows that the private residential price index for October 2024 is reported at 290.1 points, a 0.62% increase from September's 288.3 points, marking the first rebound after five consecutive months of decline. In the first ten months of this year, housing prices have cumulatively fallen by 6.81%; compared to the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, the cumulative decline in housing prices still reaches 27.13%.

Chen Haichao pointed out that the successful rebound in housing prices in October was better than previously predicted, as the market has clearly reflected the optimistic sentiment following the interest rate cuts that began in mid-September and the central government's strong market rescue efforts in late September. Additionally, at the beginning of October, the market was already anticipating that the Policy Address would bring good news for the property market, which contributed to a stronger-than-expected reversal in housing prices.

Looking ahead to the remaining two months of this year, housing prices are expected to trend towards a stable and slow increase, as the supply of new first-hand properties remains abundant. Developers continue to adopt a strategy focused on quantity, making it difficult for second-hand housing prices to rise significantly. If housing prices can increase by 0.5% month-on-month in November and December, the fourth quarter could end the previous six consecutive quarters of decline, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1.63%, leading to a narrowing of the annual decline in housing prices to 5.88%. As for the housing price trend next year, it remains to be seen how to assess the economic and military policies following Trump's return to the White House