Is Trump's Inauguration Day Relatively "Low-Key"? Has He Changed?

Compared to the posture before and after the election, Trump's appearance on inauguration day was relatively "low-key." The inaugural speech was more restrained in its wording on immigration and tariffs; the signed documents did not reach the expected 100 items; tariffs were not implemented, only a broad trade memorandum was issued to initiate a trade review. Has Trump changed? We think: yes and no. From the perspective of change, the introduction of policies seems more mature and rational; but what remains unchanged is the determination to break the existing order of the United States and the international community, as well as the often unexpected style of action. The market can take a breather, but it must also prepare for the upcoming "first hundred days of new policies." From the inaugural speech, compared to eight years ago, it is clearly more prepared; but compared to Trump's earlier aggressive style, it appears slightly low-key. This speech was about twice the length of the 2017 inaugural speech, where Trump mainly elaborated on governance concepts, including "America First," "Buy American, Hire American," and rebuilding industry and infrastructure; whereas in this speech, Trump specifically listed the policies to be announced: Regarding tariffs, the speech briefly mentioned that "tariffs will be imposed on foreign goods" and "establish a foreign tax bureau." More emphasis was placed on energy, stressing "drill, drill," ending the Green New Deal, producing cars; developing energy output to combat inflation; and exporting American energy worldwide. The attitude towards immigration has marginally softened, stating that illegal immigration will be stopped and the "Remain in Mexico" policy will be restored. In terms of foreign affairs, he emphasized the Panama Canal, renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and restoring peace in the Middle East. Issues such as technology security sanctions and Greenland were not mentioned.

"One day equals 100 days," Trump signed 46 policy documents on his first day (as of 10 PM local time; including executive orders, presidential memoranda, presidential statements, etc.). The 46 policy documents mainly focused on domestic affairs, with little mention of tariffs and foreign affairs. Administrative reform: The number of documents was the highest, including the cancellation of remote work for federal employees, a hiring freeze, reforming federal hiring procedures, and ending the government department DEI program Immigration: Announced a national emergency at the southern border, adjusted the refugee acceptance plan, and ensured the nation is protected from invasion, among other policies. Energy and Environment: Declared a national energy emergency, released energy production, relaxed environmental regulations, suspended offshore wind power leasing, and withdrew from the Paris Agreement, among others. Regarding tariffs, issued a memorandum requiring the U.S. Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce to review trade practices in China, Canada, and Mexico; the review results for China are to be submitted to the President by April 1, 2025. Additionally, Trump stated to the media that he is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1. In terms of diplomacy, released policy documents on "America First," withdrawal from the World Health Organization, adjustments to U.S. foreign aid, and the OECD global tax agreement. Comparing the "first hundred days" of the previous two administrations, the level of policy activity this year is evident: Four years ago, when Biden took office, he signed 42 executive orders and 11 bills within the first hundred days; Eight years ago, when Trump took office, he signed 33 executive orders and 28 bills within the first hundred days. Of the 28 bills, 17 were modifications, repeals, or extensions of existing laws, with almost none being entirely new with significant decisions; this time, Trump is better prepared, and important legislation may emerge within the first hundred days.

Our views on U.S.-China relations are further validated: In the short term, there may be a window of easing; however, uncertainties remain in the medium to long term. In the short term, the focus of U.S. policy is on energy, immigration, and other areas. The diplomatic focus is also not on China. Inviting Chinese leaders to the inauguration, phone calls between the heads of state of China and the U.S., and positive signals in U.S.-China relations. In the medium to long term, U.S.-China relations will continue to develop in a convoluted manner, with the tariff stick still looming overhead. Risks to watch for: First, Trump issued an executive order granting TikTok a 75-day grace period for a ban, proposing that the U.S. hold 50% ownership of TikTok, indicating that competition in the tech security field will not end; Second, hawks like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz have yet to "take action." Third, on April 1, 2025, the Office of the United States Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce will release the review results of Sino-U.S. economic and trade behaviors. Authors of this article: Pei Mingnan SAC No. S0100524080002, Shao Xiang SAC No. S0100524080007, Source: Chuan Yue Global Macro, Original title: "Trump Inauguration: Strategic Layout"

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