This week in Trumponomics: Labor pains The Trump economy is getting off to an iffy start. Voters expect more.
The Trump economy is facing challenges as the first employment report of his second term shows a hiring slowdown, with only 143,000 jobs created in January, down from 307,000 the previous month. While the unemployment rate decreased to 4%, the average workweek contracted, and more individuals are working part-time. Wage growth remains strong at 4.1%, raising concerns about inflation and potential interest rate hikes. Experts warn of economic vulnerabilities, with job openings declining from a peak of 12.2 million in March 2022 to 7.6 million by the end of 2024, indicating a slowdown in the job market.
President Donald Trump has started his second term deliberately trying to shock the political establishment, and it’s working. Democrats are aghast at his efforts to slash foreign aid, fire federal workers, and gut the government. Even some Republicans think Trump is going too far, too fast.
The economy’s response to Trump has been more like “meh.” The first employment report of Trump’s second term showed a hiring slowdown, with employers creating 143,000 jobs in January. That’s a big drop from 307,000 the month before and also below the average of 166,000 new jobs per month in 2024.
The unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth of a point to 4%, which is good. But the average workweek contracted, which is not so good. There were more multiple-job holders and more people working part-time because they couldn’t find full-time work, also not so good.
Wage growth was surprisingly strong, with earnings up 4.1% during the last 12 months. That’s good for workers, but worrisome for financial markets. Wage growth is picking up slightly, and higher pay means that higher labor costs might show up on store shelves as rising prices. The Federal Reserve wants to see cooler wage growth as evidence that inflation is abating, and they’re not getting it. That means interest rates may go higher rather than lower, which is what normally happens when markets think inflation could worsen.
Read more: How does the labor market affect inflation?
David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research called the jobs report a “growth-depressant” that revealed “economic cracks” and warned that it could dent corporate profits.
And that’s not the only manifestation of labor pains. A separate report showed that job openings, which peaked at 12.2 milion in March of 2022, fell to 7.6 million at the end of 2024. That’s a solid level, but altogether, the job boom that began around the time President Joe Biden took office in 2021 has clearly hit a new, slower stride.
"The pace of hiring, quitting and layoffs have all slowed dramatically,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, posted on social media on Feb. 7. “That leaves the economy more vulnerable to any pickup in layoffs.”
Trump has had little to say about the US economy since taking office three weeks ago, which is uncharacteristic for him. During his first term, Trump weighed in frequently on important economic reports, bragging when the news was good — and casting doubt on the numbers when the news was bad.
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Americans could use some reassuring.
