Minsheng Securities: Agile hand beneficiaries benefit from high demand for humanoid robots, driving demand for related core components

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Minsheng Securities has released a research report stating that the development of humanoid machines aligns with the demands of the real world, with 2025 marking the year of mass production for humanoid robots, and industry demand is expected to grow significantly. As major products like Tesla (TSLA.US), UTree, and Figure continue to be updated, the humanoid robot industry chain will gradually mature. Referring to the evolution of Tesla's Optimus from Gen1 to Gen3, the degrees of freedom of the dexterous hand are continuously improving, and its capabilities for precise operations and complex environmental handling are being enhanced, driving demand for core components such as drive systems, transmission systems, and sensing systems.

Key Points from Minsheng Securities:

Dexterous hands may be the most benefited segment in the multi-generational evolution of humanoid robots

The development of humanoid machines aligns with the demands of the real world, with 2025 marking the year of mass production for humanoid robots, and industry demand is expected to grow significantly. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, the global market size for robotic dexterous hands is approximately 760,000 units / USD 1.7 billion in 2024, and it is expected to exceed 1.41 million units / USD 3 billion by 2030. As a core component, the degrees of freedom of dexterous hands are continuously improving, and capabilities such as precise operations are being optimized. Their design needs to meet requirements for high bionics, flexible operation, and adaptability to complex environments, possessing load capacity, motion capability, control capability, and perception capability.

Drive Systems: Integrated Intelligence, Flexible Movements

From the perspective of the number of degrees of freedom and the matching number of drive sources, the drive methods for dexterous hands can be divided into fully driven and under-driven. Under-driven systems can enhance degrees of freedom through coupling, providing higher practicality. Compared to hydraulic drive, pneumatic drive, and SMA solutions, motor drives offer higher control precision and integration. In terms of motor drivers, hollow cup motors have advantages in control precision and size, making them the mainstream choice for existing dexterous hand drive motors, while slotless brushless motors offer better torque and cost advantages.

Transmission Systems: Precision and Efficiency, Diverse Routes

The transmission systems for dexterous hands are developing towards high precision, lightweight, bionic, and intelligent directions to meet the diverse needs of various scenarios. Traditional rigid transmission (gears, screws, etc.) and flexible transmission (tendons, etc.) have different advantages, and manufacturers choose different technical routes for transmission systems. Humanoid robot manufacturers, represented by Tesla's Optimus, have gradually adopted a combination of various transmission solutions.

Sensing Systems: Highly Sensitive and Versatile, Accelerating Progress

The sensor systems of dexterous hands significantly impact their grasping, manipulation, and perception capabilities. Various sensors are widely used in many aspects of robots to achieve "human-like" characteristics. Force/torque sensors, tactile sensors, and position/angle sensors (such as encoders) can detect external single variables such as force/torque, touch, and position. Sensors are developing towards multi-area, flexible, and multi-modal trends, with electronic skin capable of integrating multiple sensing functions, highlighting comprehensive advantages. After the industry matures, humanoid robots will accelerate their development towards the "five senses" of humans.

The degrees of freedom of the dexterous hand in Tesla's Optimus are continuously improving through generational evolution. Reviewing the update process of Tesla's Optimus multi-generational products, the flexibility and precision of the dexterous hand continue to improve. In October 2024, Tesla officially announced that compared to the previous generation Gen2, the third generation Optimus dexterous hand now has 22 degrees of freedom, doubling that of the previous generation. The company expects an increase in the number of components in various segments, especially in the drive system.

Risk Warning: Risks of humanoid robot technology iteration not meeting expectations, risks of humanoid robot cost reduction not meeting expectations, risks of policy support not meeting expectations, etc