<p><strong>Serve Robotics</strong>（SERV 2.15%）开发的自主机器人已经代表像 <strong>Uber</strong> 的 Uber Eats 完成了数千次食品配送。事实上，该公司与 Uber 签订了合同，计划在 2025 年底之前部署数千台新机器人，这将为扩展到新的地理市场铺平道路。</p>
<p>Serve 的机器人由 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.50%）的 Jetson Orin 平台提供动力，该平台提供了运行先进机器人技术和计算机视觉所需的硬件和软件。Nvidia 曾是 Serve 的最大股东之一，直到这家芯片制造商在 2024 年底出售了其全部股份。</p>
<p>自 2 月中旬以来，Serve 的股票暴跌了 65%，那时投资者得知 Nvidia 退出。投资者应该将此视为买入机会，还是应该像 Nvidia 一样观望？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzODQvYS1wYWlyLW9mLWF1dG9ub21vdXMtZm9vZC1kZWxpdmVyeS1yb2JvdHMtd2FpdGluZy1vbi10aGUtc2lkZXdhbGsuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzODQvYS1wYWlyLW9mLWF1dG9ub21vdXMtZm9vZC1kZWxpdmVyeS1yb2JvdHMtd2FpdGluZy1vbi10aGUtc2lkZXdhbGsuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Serve 正准备迎接 2025 年的创纪录年</h2>
<p>Serve 认为，机器人和无人机配送存在一个未开发的市场，到 2030 年可能价值高达 4500 亿美元。现有的最后一公里物流网络依赖于两吨重的汽车和人类司机来配送两磅重的食品订单，Serve 认为这非常低效。该公司表示，人工智能（AI）开发和硬件组件成本的下降将加速机器人配送解决方案的采用。</p>
<p>根据该公司的说法，自 2022 年以来，Serve 的自驾机器人已经代表 1000 家餐厅在洛杉矶完成了超过 50,000 次配送，准确率达到 99.65%。这使得它们比人类配送司机可靠 10 倍——换句话说，机器人迄今为止犯错的次数减少了 90%。</p>
<p>Serve 最新的 Gen3 机器人使用四级自主技术，这意味着它们可以在指定区域内的人行道上行驶而无需人工干预。Gen3 机器人的最高时速为每小时 11 英里，比上一代快 60%。它们的电池容量增加了 67%，因此可以更长时间地运行，并且由于 Nvidia 的 Jetson Orin 套件，它们的计算能力提高了五倍。</p>
<p>根据 Serve 与 Uber Eats 的合同，它将在 2025 年生产 2000 台 Gen3 机器人，并在迈阿密、亚特兰大和达拉斯等新市场部署。Serve 正在与一家名为 <strong>Magna International</strong> 的经验丰富的制造合作伙伴合作，该公司是汽车行业价值 100 亿美元的零部件和组件生产商。结合 Serve 首次大规模生产机器人的事实，它相信 Gen3 的市场推出成本将比之前的几代便宜 65%。</p>
<h2>Serve 的收入飙升，但亏损也在增加</h2>
<p>Serve 在 2024 年创造了 180 万美元的创纪录收入，比 2023 年增长了惊人的 773%。但有一个警告：其中近 120 万美元的收入来自 Serve 为其机器人制造合作伙伴 Magna International 提供的一系列一次性、非经常性软件服务。</p>
<p>Serve 在 2024 年的收入中，只有 626,580 美元实际上来自其核心业务，包括配送，但这一数字仍比前一年增长了三倍。</p>
<p>话虽如此，华尔街的共识估计（由 Yahoo！提供）表明，Serve 的收入在 2025 年可能飙升 387%，达到 880 万美元，这得益于在 Uber Eats 协议下部署的 2000 台新机器人。换句话说，其核心业务预计将在今年大幅扩展。</p>
<p>Serve 面临的最大挑战将是控制亏损。该公司在 2024 年的 GAAP（一般公认会计原则）基础上亏损 3920 万美元，继 2023 年亏损 2480 万美元之后。由于初创公司仍在努力扩大其产品规模，因此可以预期亏损会增加，因为收入需要时间来追赶所有的市场营销和研发投资。</p>
<p>然而，Serve 在 2024 年底仅有 1.23 亿美元的现金，因此无法以当前的速度持续烧钱。该公司在 1 月份成功从投资者那里筹集了 8000 万美元，以增强其资产负债表，但每次这样做都会稀释现有股东的股份，从而对他们的潜在回报产生负面影响。</p>
<h2>Serve 的股票极其昂贵，这可能阻碍进一步上涨</h2>
<p>Nvidia 在出售其全部股份之前持有 Serve Robotics 的 370 万股，这在当前每股 7.66 美元的价格下价值约 2800 万美元。我们不知道 Nvidia 为何退出其持股，但估值可能是一个因素。</p>
<p>根据 Serve 的 2024 年收入，其股票的市销率（P/S）为 156.9。很难用语言来形容这个估值有多极端，但为了提供一些视角，这几乎是 Nvidia 市销率 23.1 的七倍：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1d4fd72ce102bc8f69c8a12c7f63c0b5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1d4fd72ce102bc8f69c8a12c7f63c0b5.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>Serve 是否值得以如此高的溢价交易，超过世界上最高质量公司的估值？在我看来，绝对不值得。如果我们使用华尔街对 2025 年的预测收入来计算，它的估值看起来会稍微好一些，因为这将股票的前瞻市销率定为 48.7。然而，这仍然意味着 Serve 的股票今年必须再下跌 50%，才能与 Nvidia 当前的市销率持平。</p>
<p>综上所述，如果 Serve 能够成功扩大其业务，它可能在 2030 年前捕获其 4500 亿美元的可寻址市场的相当一部分。如果那样的话，投资者回顾这一时刻时，当前的股价可能看起来像是一个便宜的交易。</p>
<p>然而，这并不能降低投资者今天以如此高的价格购买 Serve 股票所面临的风险。正如我提到的，即使它达到了华尔街的收入预测，今年仍有可能下跌 50%，仅仅因为它目前的估值实在太高。</p>
<p>因此，Serve 股票最近 60% 的暴跌在这个阶段可能并不是一个买入机会。</p>

SERV

<p>Serve Robotics 的股票自 2 月中旬以来暴跌了 65%，原因是 Nvidia 退出了其主要股东。该公司开发自主配送机器人，计划在 2025 年前根据与 Uber Eats 的合同部署 2000 台新的 Gen3 机器人，目标是到 2030 年实现 4500 亿美元的机器人配送市场。尽管 2024 年创下了 180 万美元的收入记录，但亏损达到了 3920 万美元。分析师预测 2025 年的收入可能飙升至 880 万美元，但股票的高估值对考虑在近期下跌后买入的投资者构成风险</p>

<p><strong>Serve Robotics</strong>(SERV 2.15%) develops autonomous robots that have already completed thousands of food deliveries on behalf of platforms like <strong>Uber</strong>'s Uber Eats. In fact, the company has a contract with Uber to deploy thousands of new robots by the end of 2025, which will pave the way for an expansion into new geographic markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Serve Robotics</strong>（SERV 2.15%）开发的自主机器人已经代表像 <strong>Uber</strong> 的 Uber Eats 完成了数千次食品配送。事实上，该公司与 Uber 签订了合同，计划在 2025 年底之前部署数千台新机器人，这将为扩展到新的地理市场铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>Serve's robots are powered by <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA -1.50%) Jetson Orin platform, which provides the hardware and software required to run advanced robotics and computer vision. Nvidia was also one of the largest shareholders in Serve, until the chipmaker sold its entire stake at the end of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 的机器人由 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -1.50%）的 Jetson Orin 平台提供动力，该平台提供了运行先进机器人技术和计算机视觉所需的硬件和软件。Nvidia 曾是 Serve 的最大股东之一，直到这家芯片制造商在 2024 年底出售了其全部股份。</p>
</div><p>Serve stock has plunged by 65% since mid-February, which is when investors learned of Nvidia's exit. Should investors treat this as a buying opportunity, or should they sit alongside Nvidia on the sidelines?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月中旬以来，Serve 的股票暴跌了 65%，那时投资者得知 Nvidia 退出。投资者应该将此视为买入机会，还是应该像 Nvidia 一样观望？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzODQvYS1wYWlyLW9mLWF1dG9ub21vdXMtZm9vZC1kZWxpdmVyeS1yb2JvdHMtd2FpdGluZy1vbi10aGUtc2lkZXdhbGsuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811384%2Fa-pair-of-autonomous-food-delivery-robots-waiting-on-the-sidewalk.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Serve is gearing up for a record year in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Serve 正准备迎接 2025 年的创纪录年</h2>
</div><p>Serve thinks there is an untapped market for robotic and drone delivery that could be worth a staggering $450 billion by 2030. Existing last-mile logistics networks rely on two-ton cars with human drivers to deliver two-pound food orders, which Serve believes is very inefficient. The company says the falling cost of artificial intelligence (AI) development and hardware components will accelerate the adoption of robotic delivery solutions instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 认为，机器人和无人机配送存在一个未开发的市场，到 2030 年可能价值高达 4500 亿美元。现有的最后一公里物流网络依赖于两吨重的汽车和人类司机来配送两磅重的食品订单，Serve 认为这非常低效。该公司表示，人工智能（AI）开发和硬件组件成本的下降将加速机器人配送解决方案的采用。</p>
</div><p>According to the company, Serve's self-driving robots have already completed over 50,000 deliveries on behalf of 1,000 restaurants across Los Angeles since 2022, with 99.65% accuracy. That makes them 10 times more reliable than human delivery drivers -- to put it another way, the robots have made 90% fewer mistakes so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据该公司的说法，自 2022 年以来，Serve 的自驾机器人已经代表 1000 家餐厅在洛杉矶完成了超过 50,000 次配送，准确率达到 99.65%。这使得它们比人类配送司机可靠 10 倍——换句话说，机器人迄今为止犯错的次数减少了 90%。</p>
</div><p>Serve's latest Gen3 robots use level 4 autonomy, which means they can drive on footpaths within designated areas without human intervention. Gen3 robots have a top speed of 11 miles per hour, making them 60% faster than the previous generation. They also have 67% more battery capacity so they can operate for longer periods of time, and they are fitted with five times more computing power thanks to Nvidia's Jetson Orin package.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 最新的 Gen3 机器人使用四级自主技术，这意味着它们可以在指定区域内的人行道上行驶而无需人工干预。Gen3 机器人的最高时速为每小时 11 英里，比上一代快 60%。它们的电池容量增加了 67%，因此可以更长时间地运行，并且由于 Nvidia 的 Jetson Orin 套件，它们的计算能力提高了五倍。</p>
</div><p>Under Serve's contract with Uber Eats, it will produce 2,000 Gen3 robots in 2025 and deploy them in new markets like Miami, Atlanta, and Dallas. Serve is using a highly experienced manufacturing partner called <strong>Magna International</strong>, which is a $10 billion producer of parts and components for the automotive industry. Combined with the fact that Serve is producing robots at scale for the first time, it believes Gen3 will be 65% cheaper to bring to market than previous generations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Serve 与 Uber Eats 的合同，它将在 2025 年生产 2000 台 Gen3 机器人，并在迈阿密、亚特兰大和达拉斯等新市场部署。Serve 正在与一家名为 <strong>Magna International</strong> 的经验丰富的制造合作伙伴合作，该公司是汽车行业价值 100 亿美元的零部件和组件生产商。结合 Serve 首次大规模生产机器人的事实，它相信 Gen3 的市场推出成本将比之前的几代便宜 65%。</p>
</div><h2>Serve's revenue is soaring, but its losses are piling up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Serve 的收入飙升，但亏损也在增加</h2>
</div><p>Serve generated a record $1.8 million in revenue during 2024, which was a whopping 773% increase compared to 2023. But there's a caveat: Almost $1.2 million of that revenue was attributed to a series of one-off, non-recurring software services that Serve provided to its robot manufacturing partner, Magna International.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 在 2024 年创造了 180 万美元的创纪录收入，比 2023 年增长了惊人的 773%。但有一个警告：其中近 120 万美元的收入来自 Serve 为其机器人制造合作伙伴 Magna International 提供的一系列一次性、非经常性软件服务。</p>
</div><p>Only $626,580 of Serve's 2024 revenue actually came from its core business that includes making deliveries, but that number still tripled compared to the prior year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 在 2024 年的收入中，只有 626,580 美元实际上来自其核心业务，包括配送，但这一数字仍比前一年增长了三倍。</p>
</div><p>With that said, Wall Street's consensus estimate (provided by Yahoo!) suggests Serve's revenue could soar by 387% to reach $8.8 million during 2025, thanks to the deployment of the 2,000 new robots under the Uber Eats deal. In other words, its core business is set to scale dramatically this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，华尔街的共识估计（由 Yahoo！提供）表明，Serve 的收入在 2025 年可能飙升 387%，达到 880 万美元，这得益于在 Uber Eats 协议下部署的 2000 台新机器人。换句话说，其核心业务预计将在今年大幅扩展。</p>
</div><p>Serve's biggest challenge will be keeping its losses in check. The company was in the red to the tune of $39.2 million in 2024 on a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, which followed a $24.8 million loss in 2023. Growing losses can be expected from a start-up that is still trying to scale its product, because it takes time for revenue to catch up to all of the investments in marketing and research and development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 面临的最大挑战将是控制亏损。该公司在 2024 年的 GAAP（一般公认会计原则）基础上亏损 3920 万美元，继 2023 年亏损 2480 万美元之后。由于初创公司仍在努力扩大其产品规模，因此可以预期亏损会增加，因为收入需要时间来追赶所有的市场营销和研发投资。</p>
</div><p>However, Serve ended 2024 with just $123 million in cash on hand, so it can't keep burning money at the current pace in perpetuity. The company managed to raise a further $80 million from investors in January to shore up its balance sheet, but every time it pulls that lever, it dilutes existing shareholders, which negatively affects their potential returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Serve 在 2024 年底仅有 1.23 亿美元的现金，因此无法以当前的速度持续烧钱。该公司在 1 月份成功从投资者那里筹集了 8000 万美元，以增强其资产负债表，但每次这样做都会稀释现有股东的股份，从而对他们的潜在回报产生负面影响。</p>
</div><h2>Serve stock is extremely expensive, which could prevent further upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Serve 的股票极其昂贵，这可能阻碍进一步上涨</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia held 3.7 million shares in Serve Robotics before selling its entire stake, which would have been worth around $28 million at the current price per share of $7.66. We don't know why Nvidia exited its position, but valuation might have been a contributing factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在出售其全部股份之前持有 Serve Robotics 的 370 万股，这在当前每股 7.66 美元的价格下价值约 2800 万美元。我们不知道 Nvidia 为何退出其持股，但估值可能是一个因素。</p>
</div><p>Based on Serve's 2024 revenue, its stock trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 156.9. It's hard to put into words how extreme that valuation is, but for some perspective, it's almost seven times higher than Nvidia's P/S ratio of 23.1:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Serve 的 2024 年收入，其股票的市销率（P/S）为 156.9。很难用语言来形容这个估值有多极端，但为了提供一些视角，这几乎是 Nvidia 市销率 23.1 的七倍：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1d4fd72ce102bc8f69c8a12c7f63c0b5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1d4fd72ce102bc8f69c8a12c7f63c0b5.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Does Serve deserve to trade at such an eyewatering premium to one of the world's highest-quality companies? In my opinion, absolutely not. Its valuation looks a <em>little</em> more palatable if we calculate it using Wall Street's forecasted revenue for 2025, because it places the stock at a forward P/S ratio of 48.7. However, it still means Serve stock would have to decline by another 50% this year just to trade in line with Nvidia's current P/S ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Serve 是否值得以如此高的溢价交易，超过世界上最高质量公司的估值？在我看来，绝对不值得。如果我们使用华尔街对 2025 年的预测收入来计算，它的估值看起来会稍微好一些，因为这将股票的前瞻市销率定为 48.7。然而，这仍然意味着 Serve 的股票今年必须再下跌 50%，才能与 Nvidia 当前的市销率持平。</p>
</div><p>With all of that said, Serve could be in a great position to capture a sizable chunk of its $450 billion addressable market by 2030 if it can successfully scale its business. If that happens, its current stock price might look like a bargain when investors look back on this moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综上所述，如果 Serve 能够成功扩大其业务，它可能在 2030 年前捕获其 4500 亿美元的可寻址市场的相当一部分。如果那样的话，投资者回顾这一时刻时，当前的股价可能看起来像是一个便宜的交易。</p>
</div><p>However, that doesn't reduce the risk investors are taking by paying such a steep price for Serve stock today. As I mentioned, there is a possibility it could decline by 50% this year even if it meets Wall Street's revenue forecast, simply because its valuation is so high right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这并不能降低投资者今天以如此高的价格购买 Serve 股票所面临的风险。正如我提到的，即使它达到了华尔街的收入预测，今年仍有可能下跌 50%，仅仅因为它目前的估值实在太高。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the recent 60% plunge in Serve stock probably isn't a buying opportunity at this stage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Serve 股票最近 60% 的暴跌在这个阶段可能并不是一个买入机会。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Serve Robotics Stock After Its 65% Plunge? Nvidia's Recent Move Might Hold the Answer.

- Serve Robotics 与 Uber 签订合同，计划到 2025 年部署 2,000 台新机器人。  
- 2024 年收入达 180 万美元，主要来自一次性软件服务，核心业务收入为 62.6 万美元。  
- Serve 股票估值极高，可能面临 50% 的下跌风险，投资者需谨慎。  