<p>股市通常会奖励那些被认为具有强大未来增长潜力的公司以溢价估值。在 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 1.95%）的案例中，投资者将其股价推高至大约 35 倍的市盈率——这一水平暗示了市场对其未来增长的巨大期望。</p><p>但仔细观察苹果最近的表现，会引发关于公司增长轨迹是否能达到这一高估值的质疑。</p><h2>iPhone 目前是个拖累</h2><p>苹果最近的财务结果并没有展现出与其高估值相符的增长股票的形象。在 2025 财年第一季度，即假日购物季，苹果报告的收入为 1243 亿美元，同比增长仅为 4%。对投资者来说，更令人担忧的是 iPhone 的表现——作为苹果的旗舰产品，iPhone 仍占总收入的 56% 以上。在此期间，iPhone 的销售实际上同比下降了 8%。</p><p>另一个令人担忧的问题是苹果在大中华区的销售。在 2025 财年第一季度，销售同比下降了 11%。这一关键市场占销售的 15%，面临的挑战对业绩造成了压力。</p><p>当然，投资者也有一些值得兴奋的事情。苹果在其他一些产品领域实现了令人瞩目的增长。例如，Mac 和 iPad 的销售分别同比增长了 16% 和 15%。但这些部门在苹果整体业务中所占的比例要小得多。然而，服务收入在苹果的业务中占据了更重要的部分——并且正在快速增长。包括订阅和 App Store 销售在内，服务部门的收入增长了 14%，达到了 263 亿美元。这是苹果仅次于 iPhone 的第二大部门，占总收入的 21% 以上。</p><h2>溢价估值的背景</h2><p>在这种背景下，很难为股票当前的估值辩护。诚然，苹果当前的市盈率从年初的约 40 下降到了现在。但这仍然远高于公司在过去十年中通常交易的估值水平。在过去 10 年中，苹果的股票平均市盈率在 20 出头。</p><p>这一高估值通常意味着投资者预期未来会加速增长。然而，苹果自己的指引则指向持续温和的增长，管理层在公司最近的财报电话会议中预测，未来一个季度的收入增长将为 “低到中个位数”。这种估值与预期增长之间的脱节引发了对苹果股价是否已经超前于其基本业务表现的担忧。</p><h2>苹果的 AI 变数</h2><p>一个可能为苹果的溢价估值辩护的因素是成功转向人工智能作为增长驱动力。该公司一直在推出其 Apple Intelligence 功能，希望能推动 iPhone 的升级并增强其生态系统优势。</p><p>但这一理论是否能够实现并没有保证——而且事情似乎并不顺利。</p><p>苹果对其 AI 推出的谨慎态度可能导致最新 iPhone 型号的需求低于预期。一些功能最初仅在特定市场和语言中可用，其他关键功能据报道也被推迟。</p><p>如果 AI 未能以投资者希望的方式加速苹果的收入，那么 iPhone 制造商的服务业务的持续成功将变得更加重要。但这对一个仅占收入约五分之一的部门来说压力很大。能够重新点燃 iPhone 升级趋势的 AI 功能将是实现更快增长的最快途径。</p><h2>风险与回报的权衡并不乐观</h2><p>尽管苹果在财务上依然强劲，利润率令人印象深刻，客户基础忠诚，但基于当前的增长趋势，很难为如此显著的溢价辩护。</p><p>考虑在当前水平投资苹果股票的投资者应仔细权衡公司在服务部门的生态系统优势与其核心业务面临的挑战。尽管苹果过去常常让怀疑者感到惊讶，但增长放缓与溢价估值的结合在当前价格下形成了一个具有挑战性的风险与回报权衡。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票正面临审查，因为其 35 倍的高估值引发了对未来增长潜力的质疑。最近的财务结果显示，年同比收入增长仅为 4%，而 iPhone 销量下降了 8%，在大中华区面临挑战。尽管服务收入增长了 14%，但仅占总收入的 21%。苹果的指引暗示未来增长温和，而公司谨慎的人工智能推广可能会影响未来需求。投资者必须权衡强劲的服务部门与核心业务面临的挑战，使得当前的风险回报比难以合理化</p>

<p>The stock market often rewards companies it believes have strong future growth potential with premium valuations. In the case of <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.95%), investors have bid up shares to roughly 35 times earnings -- a level that implies big growth expectations from the Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市通常会奖励那些被认为具有强大未来增长潜力的公司以溢价估值。在 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 1.95%）的案例中，投资者将其股价推高至大约 35 倍的市盈率——这一水平暗示了市场对其未来增长的巨大期望。</p>
</div><p>But a closer look at Apple's recent performance raises questions about whether the company's growth trajectory can live up to this lofty valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但仔细观察苹果最近的表现，会引发关于公司增长轨迹是否能达到这一高估值的质疑。</p>
</div><h2>iPhone is a drag... for now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>iPhone 目前是个拖累</h2>
</div><p>Apple's recent financial results don't paint the picture of the growth stock you'd expect given its high valuation. In the company's fiscal first quarter of 2025, which covered the holiday shopping season, Apple reported revenue of $124.3 billion, representing just 4% year-over-year growth. More concerning for investors should be the performance of the iPhone -- Apple's flagship product that still accounts for over 56% of total revenue. iPhone sales actually declined 8% year over year during the period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果最近的财务结果并没有展现出与其高估值相符的增长股票的形象。在 2025 财年第一季度，即假日购物季，苹果报告的收入为 1243 亿美元，同比增长仅为 4%。对投资者来说，更令人担忧的是 iPhone 的表现——作为苹果的旗舰产品，iPhone 仍占总收入的 56% 以上。在此期间，iPhone 的销售实际上同比下降了 8%。</p>
</div><p>Another concern has been Apple's sales in Greater China. They fell 11% year over year during fiscal Q1. Accounting for 15% of sales, challenges in this key market are weighing on results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个令人担忧的问题是苹果在大中华区的销售。在 2025 财年第一季度，销售同比下降了 11%。这一关键市场占销售的 15%，面临的挑战对业绩造成了压力。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there are some things for investors to be excited about. Apple saw impressive growth in some other product segments. Mac and iPad sales, for example, jumped 16% and 15% year over year respectively. But these divisions represent a much smaller portion of Apple's overall business. Services revenue, however, represents a more meaningful portion of Apple's business -- and it <em>is</em> growing fast. Including subscriptions and App Store sales, services segment revenue grew by 14% to $26.3 billion. This is Apple's second-largest segment after iPhone, accounting for more than 21% of revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，投资者也有一些值得兴奋的事情。苹果在其他一些产品领域实现了令人瞩目的增长。例如，Mac 和 iPad 的销售分别同比增长了 16% 和 15%。但这些部门在苹果整体业务中所占的比例要小得多。然而，服务收入在苹果的业务中占据了更重要的部分——并且正在快速增长。包括订阅和 App Store 销售在内，服务部门的收入增长了 14%，达到了 263 亿美元。这是苹果仅次于 iPhone 的第二大部门，占总收入的 21% 以上。</p>
</div><h2>Premium valuation in context</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>溢价估值的背景</h2>
</div><p>With this backdrop, it's hard to justify the stock's current valuation. Sure, Apple's current price-to-earnings ratio is down from around 40 at the beginning of the year. But it's still much higher than the valuation levels the company typically traded at over the last decade. During the last 10 years, shares averaged a price-to-earnings multiple in the low twenties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，很难为股票当前的估值辩护。诚然，苹果当前的市盈率从年初的约 40 下降到了现在。但这仍然远高于公司在过去十年中通常交易的估值水平。在过去 10 年中，苹果的股票平均市盈率在 20 出头。</p>
</div><p>This elevated multiple would typically suggest investors expect accelerated growth ahead. However, Apple's own guidance points to continued modest growth, with the company forecasting &#34;low to mid-single digit&#34; revenue growth for the coming quarter, according to management's guidance in the company's most recent earnings call. This disconnect between valuation and projected growth raises concerns about whether Apple's stock price has gotten ahead of its fundamental business performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一高估值通常意味着投资者预期未来会加速增长。然而，苹果自己的指引则指向持续温和的增长，管理层在公司最近的财报电话会议中预测，未来一个季度的收入增长将为 “低到中个位数”。这种估值与预期增长之间的脱节引发了对苹果股价是否已经超前于其基本业务表现的担忧。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's AI wildcard</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的 AI 变数</h2>
</div><p>One factor that could justify Apple's premium valuation would be a successful pivot to artificial intelligence as a growth driver. The company has been rolling out its Apple Intelligence features, which it hopes will drive iPhone upgrades and strengthen its ecosystem advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个可能为苹果的溢价估值辩护的因素是成功转向人工智能作为增长驱动力。该公司一直在推出其 Apple Intelligence 功能，希望能推动 iPhone 的升级并增强其生态系统优势。</p>
</div><p>But there's no guarantee this thesis will play out -- and things don't seem to be going smoothly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一理论是否能够实现并没有保证——而且事情似乎并不顺利。</p>
</div><p>Apple's cautious approach to its AI rollout could cause demand for the latest iPhone models to be lower than expected. Some features were initially available only in certain markets and languages, and other key features have reportedly been delayed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果对其 AI 推出的谨慎态度可能导致最新 iPhone 型号的需求低于预期。一些功能最初仅在特定市场和语言中可用，其他关键功能据报道也被推迟。</p>
</div><p>If AI fails to accelerate Apple's revenue the way investors hope, the continued success of the iPhone maker's services business will become even more important. But that's a lot of pressure for a segment only accounting for about a fifth of revenue. AI features that reignite iPhone upgrade trends would be the quickest way to faster growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 AI 未能以投资者希望的方式加速苹果的收入，那么 iPhone 制造商的服务业务的持续成功将变得更加重要。但这对一个仅占收入约五分之一的部门来说压力很大。能够重新点燃 iPhone 升级趋势的 AI 功能将是实现更快增长的最快途径。</p>
</div><h2>The risk-reward proposition isn't good</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险与回报的权衡并不乐观</h2>
</div><p>While Apple remains financially strong with impressive profit margins and a loyal customer base, it's simply difficult to justify such a significant premium based on current growth trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果在财务上依然强劲，利润率令人印象深刻，客户基础忠诚，但基于当前的增长趋势，很难为如此显著的溢价辩护。</p>
</div><p>Investors considering Apple stock at current levels should carefully weigh the company's ecosystem advantages, evidenced by the strength in its services segment, against the challenges it faces in its core business. While Apple has consistently surprised skeptics in the past, the combination of slowing growth and a premium valuation creates a challenging risk-reward proposition at current prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑在当前水平投资苹果股票的投资者应仔细权衡公司在服务部门的生态系统优势与其核心业务面临的挑战。尽管苹果过去常常让怀疑者感到惊讶，但增长放缓与溢价估值的结合在当前价格下形成了一个具有挑战性的风险与回报权衡。</p>
</div>

Apple Stock Has a Growth Problem. Is It Really Worth Its Premium Valuation?

- 苹果公司面临增长放缓，第一财季收入仅增长 4%。  
- iPhone 销售同比下降 8%，大中华区销售下降 11%。  
- 高估值与预期增长不符，投资者需谨慎评估风险。  