According to a recent survey conducted by Deutsche Bank, the likelihood of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the future is approaching 50%. The survey was conducted from March 17 to 20, with approximately 400 respondents predicting an average probability of about 43% for a recession within the next 12 months. Despite the current low unemployment rate in the U.S. and most economic data indicating that growth is slowing but still ongoing, the survey results further confirm the information released by market sentiment surveys, which show that consumers and business leaders are increasingly concerned about the risks of economic slowdown and even recession.
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged these market concerns but emphasized that the overall economic situation remains strong, with significant progress made over the past two years. However, during the two-day policy meeting that concluded last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. this year to just a 1.7% annualized growth rate. This figure, excluding the economic downturn during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, would represent the lowest growth level since 2011.
Additionally, Federal Reserve officials raised their core inflation forecast to 2.8%, well above the central bank's target of 2%, although they expect to achieve this inflation target by 2027. The simultaneous rise in inflation and slowdown in economic growth has led the market to worry about a phenomenon not experienced since the early 1980s—stagflation. While most economists believe the current economic environment is still different from that era, it is undeniable that the Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in the future, struggling to balance promoting economic growth and controlling prices.
In recent weeks, market tensions regarding the future economic outlook have noticeably intensified. Bond market expert and DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach recently stated in an interview that he predicts the probability of a recession could be as high as 50% to 60%.
Morgan Stanley noted in a report on Monday: &#34;The recent pullback in the stock market is largely due to investors being shocked by the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, and this sentiment may further evolve into concerns about economic slowdown or even recession. However, what is truly unsettling is the risk of stagflation in the U.S., where economic growth slows while inflation remains high.&#34;
However, Powell expressed skepticism about a repeat of the stagflation era of the early 1980s: &#34;I wouldn't say we are in a situation close to what it was back then.&#34;
Analysts at Barclays pointed out that market indicators suggest the U.S. economy will only experience a mild slowdown, but the bank's forecast for U.S. economic growth this year is only 0.7%, nearly close to the recession threshold.
Meanwhile, the highly regarded UCLA Anderson Economic Forecast Center recently issued its first &#34;recession warning&#34; regarding the economy, which has garnered widespread attention in the market. Economist Clement Bohr from the center stated that the U.S. economy could fall into recession within the next year or two, but this situation can be completely avoided, provided that the Trump administration can reduce its tariff threats
Bohr further emphasized that this warning is also a caution to the current government: &#34;Achieve your policy goals cautiously, or you may inadvertently drive a severe economic recession, and not just an ordinary recession, but possibly stagflation.&#34;

According to a survey by Deutsche Bank AG, the likelihood of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the future is close to 50%. The survey shows that about 400 respondents predict a 43% chance of recession within the next 12 months. Despite low unemployment and sustained economic growth, market concerns about an economic slowdown are intensifying. The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast to 1.7% and raised its core inflation forecast to 2.8%. This stagflation phenomenon has triggered market anxiety, with experts predicting a recession probability as high as 50% to 60%