IDC: The global smartphone market grew by 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter despite tensions
In the first quarter of 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 1.5% year-on-year, reaching 304.9 million units, in line with IDC's forecast. Manufacturers increased production to cope with the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, especially for the U.S. market. Although the U.S. government has suspended tariffs on Chinese smartphones, future economic uncertainties may dampen consumer demand. Chinese manufacturers performed well in the domestic market, with major manufacturers like Samsung achieving year-on-year growth
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the latest "Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker" report released by International Data Corporation (IDC) shows preliminary data indicating that global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) are expected to grow by 1.5% year-on-year, reaching 304.9 million units. The market performance aligns with IDC's forecast, as manufacturers increased production to cope with the U.S. government's additional tariffs on Chinese imports.
Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President of IDC's Device Research, stated that in the face of escalating geopolitical uncertainties and the potential threat of significant tariff increases on imports from China, manufacturers strategically accelerated production in the first quarter of 2025 and shipped large quantities in advance, especially targeting the critical U.S. market. This surge on the supply side aims to mitigate the risks of potential cost increases and supply disruptions, resulting in first-quarter shipments exceeding levels anticipated based on potential consumer demand.
Ryan Reith, Vice President of IDC's Global Device Research, believes that the recent suspension of tariffs on Chinese-imported smartphones by the U.S. government provides American companies with temporary relief. However, the high dependence of U.S. companies on the Chinese supply chain remains, making future planning challenging, as many companies face high uncertainty when making significant decisions. Currently, U.S. smartphone brands should take full advantage of the tariff exemption period to increase production and shipments as much as possible. On the other hand, economic uncertainty may suppress consumer demand in the coming months.
Market Performance of the Top Five Global Smartphone Manufacturers in Q1 2025
Globally, most leading smartphone manufacturers achieved year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025. Thanks to the subsidy policy introduced by the Chinese government last year and expanded to the smartphone sector in January this year, Chinese manufacturers performed exceptionally well in the domestic market.
Key manufacturers' performances are as follows:
Samsung regained the top market position with the continued success of its high-end Galaxy S25 models and the Galaxy A series (especially the latest Galaxy A36 and A56, which offer AI features at more affordable prices) in the mid-range market.
Apple (AAPL.US) achieved record-high shipments in the first quarter, partly to stock up in advance to avoid tariffs in the U.S. market; on the other hand, it also shipped large quantities to other regions as distributors worried that supply chain disruptions could lead to inventory shortages and price increases. However, Apple's performance in the Chinese market continued to decline, as its Pro series products are not covered by the Chinese government's subsidy policy.
Xiaomi (01810)'s growth primarily relied on the Chinese government's subsidy policy, which positively impacted the sales of its mid-range products, driving significant growth in the Chinese market Despite facing significant competitive pressure in the international market, OPPO has regained its position as the fourth largest globally, thanks to sustained growth in the Chinese market.
vivo saw a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, benefiting not only from China's subsidy policies but also showing strong performance in the international market driven by mid-to-low-end products.
Market Performance of China's Top Five Smartphone Manufacturers in Q1 2025
In the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), the shipment volume of China's smartphone market increased by 3.3% year-on-year, reaching 71.6 million units, driven by the "national subsidy" policy and the peak sales season during the Spring Festival, continuing the growth trend of the past five quarters. However, the growth rate was lower than IDC's expectations. The "national subsidy" policy has not effectively stimulated market demand. With strong challenges posed by international geopolitical and macroeconomic environments, even if the "national subsidy" policy makes more consumer-friendly adjustments in the future, the Chinese smartphone market in 2025 will still face greater pressure
