<p><strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 和 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 都沒有進入熊市。然而，這兩個指數中的一個重要成員卻是。<strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -2.58%) 的股價仍比 2 月份創下的前高低了超過 20%，即使在最近幾天嘗試反彈之後。</p>
<p>一些投資者可能會想放棄亞馬遜。不過，我認為這並不是一個明智的選擇。歷史表明，現在可能是購買亞馬遜股票的好時機。</p>
<h2>回調等於機會</h2>
<p>你可能會驚訝於亞馬遜的股價在這些年裏有多少次從之前的高點下跌超過 20%。該公司於 1997 年 5 月進行首次公開募股。從那時起，據我統計，股票經歷了 21 次熊市。這大約是每 16 個月一次的 20% 以上的下跌。</p>
<p>有時，急劇的拋售是短暫的。例如，2020 年 2 月，隨着 COVID-19 在全球蔓延，亞馬遜的股價與大多數股票一起暴跌。但該股在不到兩個月的時間內恢復了之前的高點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，有時亞馬遜的股價在熊市區域停留的時間較長。當互聯網泡沫在 1999 年底和 2000 年初破裂時，股票受到的打擊尤其嚴重。亞馬遜幾乎花了九年的時間才恢復過來。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>無論亞馬遜的股價低迷了多久，每次回調都為長期投資者提供了絕佳的買入機會。如果你在 1999 年 12 月 10 日亞馬遜股價暴跌時投資了 10,000 美元（這似乎是個糟糕的時機），並且從未賣出，你今天將擁有近 340,000 美元。</p>
<h2>歷史低估值</h2>
<p>相關的是，亞馬遜目前的交易估值也處於歷史低位。這部分是由於最近的拋售。然而，這也因為公司專注於提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>亞馬遜的股票目前的市盈率低於過去 12 個月收益的 33 倍。上一次股票如此便宜是在 2008 年的市場崩潰期間，那時正值後來被稱為大蕭條的時期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>如果你在亞馬遜的估值上一次如此低時投資了 10,000 美元，現在你將擁有多少錢？超過 760,000 美元。當然，歷史上沒有太多先例，但過去似乎表明，當亞馬遜的市盈率低於 33 時，投資該公司的時機是非常好的。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，亞馬遜的前瞻市盈率甚至更低——27.55。這表明華爾街預計該公司明年的盈利將繼續強勁增長。</p>
<h2>歷史會在亞馬遜身上重演嗎？</h2>
<p>在任何人開始大量購買亞馬遜股票之前，重要的是要注意，亞馬遜與其之前多次下跌 20% 或更多時的公司有很大不同。特別是，雲計算不再是亞馬遜在 2006 年首次推出亞馬遜網絡服務時那樣令人眼花繚亂的新機會。</p>
<p>也就是説，我認為亞馬遜在股價暴跌進入熊市後過去的表現對今天是有啓發的。我也相信，該股歷史低估值不應被忽視。</p>
<p>當然，亞馬遜可能無法再提供過去 28 年那樣令人矚目的回報。然而，這並不意味着該股不會繼續成為一個大贏家。</p>
<p>我認為人工智能的普及將推動未來十年及更長時間內向雲計算的持續遷移。我預計電子商務市場將擴大。我預測亞馬遜在醫療保健、衞星寬帶和自動駕駛汽車技術方面的舉措將會取得成效。正如馬克·吐温有時（儘管可能是錯誤地）被引用所説的：“歷史不會重演，但它常常押韻。”</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜的股票目前比 2 月份的高點下跌超過 20%，但歷史趨勢表明這可能是一個良好的買入機會。自 1997 年上市以來，該股票經歷了 21 次熊市，通常在下跌後會顯著反彈。目前的市盈率低於 33 倍，類似於 2008 年市場崩潰時的水平，投資者可能會發現亞馬遜未來增長的潛力，特別是在雲服務和新舉措方面。雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但該股票的歷史表明，現在可能是一個值得投資的時機</p>

<p>Neither the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> nor the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is in a bear market. However, a prominent member of the two indexes is. Shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.58%) remain down more than 20% below the previous high set in February, even after an attempted rebound in recent days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 和 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 都沒有進入熊市。然而，這兩個指數中的一個重要成員卻是。<strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -2.58%) 的股價仍比 2 月份創下的前高低了超過 20%，即使在最近幾天嘗試反彈之後。</p>
</div><p>Some investors may be tempted to give up on Amazon. I don't think that's a great move, though. History suggests that now could be a smart time to buy Amazon stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投資者可能會想放棄亞馬遜。不過，我認為這並不是一個明智的選擇。歷史表明，現在可能是購買亞馬遜股票的好時機。</p>
</div><h2>Pullbacks equal opportunities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>回調等於機會</h2>
</div><p>You might be surprised just how often Amazon's share price has fallen by 20% or more from a previous high over the years. The company conducted its initial public offering in May 1997. Since then, by my count, the stock has been in a bear market 21 times. That's a 20%-plus decline of roughly once every 16 months on average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能會驚訝於亞馬遜的股價在這些年裏有多少次從之前的高點下跌超過 20%。該公司於 1997 年 5 月進行首次公開募股。從那時起，據我統計，股票經歷了 21 次熊市。這大約是每 16 個月一次的 20% 以上的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Sometimes, the steep sell-offs have been brief. For example, Amazon's shares tanked in February 2020 along with most stocks as COVID-19 swept across the world. But the stock recaptured its previous high in less than two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有時，急劇的拋售是短暫的。例如，2020 年 2 月，隨着 COVID-19 在全球蔓延，亞馬遜的股價與大多數股票一起暴跌。但該股在不到兩個月的時間內恢復了之前的高點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Other times, though, Amazon remained in bear market territory for a long time. The stock was hit especially hard when the dot-com bubble burst in late 1999 and early 2000. It took Amazon nearly nine years to recover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有時亞馬遜的股價在熊市區域停留的時間較長。當互聯網泡沫在 1999 年底和 2000 年初破裂時，股票受到的打擊尤其嚴重。亞馬遜幾乎花了九年的時間才恢復過來。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Regardless of how long Amazon's share price stayed depressed, though, every pullback presented a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. If you invested $10,000 in Amazon on the day its shares plunged on Dec. 10, 1999 (which would have seemed to be horrible timing), and never sold, you'd have nearly $340,000 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論亞馬遜的股價低迷了多久，每次回調都為長期投資者提供了絕佳的買入機會。如果你在 1999 年 12 月 10 日亞馬遜股價暴跌時投資了 10,000 美元（這似乎是個糟糕的時機），並且從未賣出，你今天將擁有近 340,000 美元。</p>
</div><h2>A historically low valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史低估值</h2>
</div><p>On a related note, Amazon is also trading at a historically low valuation. That's partly because of the latest sell-off. However, it's also due to the company focusing intently on improving profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相關的是，亞馬遜目前的交易估值也處於歷史低位。這部分是由於最近的拋售。然而，這也因為公司專注於提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's shares currently trade below 33 times trailing 12-month earnings. The last time the stock was this cheap was during the market meltdown of 2008, in the midst of what would later be called the Great Recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜的股票目前的市盈率低於過去 12 個月收益的 33 倍。上一次股票如此便宜是在 2008 年的市場崩潰期間，那時正值後來被稱為大蕭條的時期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>How much money would you have now if you had invested $10,000 in Amazon stock the last time its valuation was this low? Over $760,000. There's limited historical precedent, of course, but the past seems to indicate that buying Amazon when its price-to-earnings multiple is under 33 is a <em>really</em> great time to invest in the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在亞馬遜的估值上一次如此低時投資了 10,000 美元，現在你將擁有多少錢？超過 760,000 美元。當然，歷史上沒有太多先例，但過去似乎表明，當亞馬遜的市盈率低於 33 時，投資該公司的時機是非常好的。</p>
</div><p>For what it's worth, Amazon's forward price-to-earnings ratio is even lower -- 27.55. This underscores that Wall Street expects the company to continue growing its earnings robustly next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，亞馬遜的前瞻市盈率甚至更低——27.55。這表明華爾街預計該公司明年的盈利將繼續強勁增長。</p>
</div><h2>Will history repeat itself with Amazon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史會在亞馬遜身上重演嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Before anyone backs up the truck and begins loading up on Amazon stock, it's important to note that Amazon is a much different company than it was during many of its previous declines of 20% or more. In particular, the cloud isn't the dazzling new opportunity that it was when Amazon first launched Amazon Web Services in 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何人開始大量購買亞馬遜股票之前，重要的是要注意，亞馬遜與其之前多次下跌 20% 或更多時的公司有很大不同。特別是，雲計算不再是亞馬遜在 2006 年首次推出亞馬遜網絡服務時那樣令人眼花繚亂的新機會。</p>
</div><p>That said, I think that Amazon's past performance after its share price plunged into bear market territory is instructive today. I also believe that the stock's historically low valuation shouldn't be ignored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，我認為亞馬遜在股價暴跌進入熊市後過去的表現對今天是有啓發的。我也相信，該股歷史低估值不應被忽視。</p>
</div><p>Sure, Amazon probably won't be able to deliver the jaw-dropping returns that it has over the past 28 years. However, that doesn't mean the stock won't continue to be a big winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，亞馬遜可能無法再提供過去 28 年那樣令人矚目的回報。然而，這並不意味着該股不會繼續成為一個大贏家。</p>
</div><p>I think that the adoption of artificial intelligence will fuel a sustained migration to the cloud over the next decade and beyond. I expect the e-commerce market to expand. I predict Amazon's initiatives in healthcare, satellite broadband, and self-driving car technology will pay off. As Mark Twain is sometimes (although perhaps erroneously) credited as saying, &#34;History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為人工智能的普及將推動未來十年及更長時間內向雲計算的持續遷移。我預計電子商務市場將擴大。我預測亞馬遜在醫療保健、衞星寬帶和自動駕駛汽車技術方面的舉措將會取得成效。正如馬克·吐温有時（儘管可能是錯誤地）被引用所説的：“歷史不會重演，但它常常押韻。”</p>
</div>

History Suggests Now Could Be a Smart Time to Buy Amazon Stock

- 亞馬遜股價下跌超過 20%，但歷史上每次回調都是長期投資的機會。  
- 當前亞馬遜的市盈率處於歷史低位，低於 33 倍，吸引投資者關注。  
- 儘管亞馬遜面臨挑戰，未來在雲計算和電商領域仍有增長潛力。  