JPMorgan Chase expects gold to break the $4,000 mark in the second quarter of 2026
JPMorgan Chase expects that the likelihood of an economic recession will increase due to U.S. tariffs and the China-U.S. trade war, with gold prices expected to surpass $4,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026. The bank forecasts that the average gold price will reach $3,675 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, noting that strong demand from investors and central banks is the main factor supporting the rise in gold prices. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase warns that an unexpected decline in central bank demand could pose a major risk to gold prices. Silver prices are expected to rise to $39 per ounce by the end of 2025
Reuters, April 22 - JPMorgan Chase stated in a report on Tuesday that as U.S. tariffs and the U.S.-China trade war intensify, the likelihood of an economic recession increases, and gold prices may break the $4,000 per ounce milestone next year.
The bank currently expects that by the fourth quarter of 2025, the average gold price will reach $3,675 per ounce, and it will exceed $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. If demand exceeds its expectations, there is a risk of breaking the above forecast levels ahead of schedule.
The bank pointed out: "Supporting our prediction that gold prices will reach $4,000 per ounce next year is the continued strong demand for gold from investors and central banks, with average net demand of about 710 tons per quarter this year."
Spot gold has risen 29% this year, setting 28 record highs, and on Tuesday it touched the $3,500 per ounce milestone for the first time. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2025 from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per ounce, noting that in an "extreme tail scenario," gold could reach around $4,500 per ounce by the end of the year.
JPMorgan Chase stated that among the potential bearish factors for gold, an unexpected decline in central bank demand remains the biggest fundamental risk.
Analysts noted: "A more substantial bearish scenario is that U.S. economic growth shows strong resilience in the face of tariffs, which makes the Federal Reserve more proactive in addressing inflation risks, even prompting the market to digest interest rate hike expectations before worrying inflation truly arrives."
JPMorgan Chase also predicted that given the uncertainty in industrial demand, silver will face greater resistance in the near term, while the second half of 2025 will open a "catch-up window," with silver prices expected to rise to $39 per ounce by the end of 2025. (End)
