Tianfeng Securities: Policy sets the tone for "stopping the decline and stabilizing," strengthening bottom consensus. Real estate "policy game + valuation repair" gradually becomes clear

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that the policy stance is to "promote the stabilization of the real estate industry," indicating that the fundamental turning point may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policies continuing. On the trading side, the market's "bottom consensus" has strengthened, and the logic of "short-term policy games + medium to long-term valuation recovery" has become smoother.

In terms of allocation direction, Tianfeng Securities recommends prioritizing: ① non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from multiple logics such as debt resolution, policy relief, and demand improvement for a turnaround; ② leading real estate companies with investment and product improvement advantages that possess unique cyclical resilience; ③ regional enterprises whose urban fundamentals are differentiated and whose market share logic is improving; ④ second-hand intermediaries benefiting from the improvement in the prosperity of existing transactions. Among these, high-quality non-state-owned and local enterprises with low valuations may have greater elastic space benefiting from policies such as financing and stockpiling.

The main views of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:

Industry Tracking (2025.5.4-2025.5.10)

Interest rate cuts inject demand stabilization "strong medicine." On May 7, the People's Bank of China announced at a press conference that it would lower the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, specifically reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate from the current 1.5% to 1.4%; lowering the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, with the interest rate for first-time homebuyers for five years or more dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, and other term rates adjusted accordingly. This policy interest rate adjustment is expected to promote a steady decline in the 5-year LPR, with a significant one-time reduction of 25bp in the provident fund loan interest rate providing ample room for adjustment (0.1-0.25bp) for commercial loan interest rates. In terms of comparable indicators, as of the end of Q1 2025, the rental yield and 10-year government bond yield in first-tier cities were approximately 1.65% and 1.81%, respectively, with the differences from the 5-year LPR and provident fund loan interest rates being 195 and 120bp, respectively, narrowing by 72 and 37bp compared to early 2024. After this adjustment, the yield differences related to housing prices will continue to narrow, enhancing buyer confidence and benefiting the industry's demand side for further stabilization in volume and price trends.

New model financing support "arrow is on the string." On May 7, the National Financial Regulatory Administration stated at a press conference that it would accelerate the introduction of a series of financing systems compatible with new models of real estate development; and expedite the introduction of loan management measures for real estate development, personal housing, and urban renewal. In terms of policy pathways, focusing on 1) stockpiling: expanding the scope of re-loans for affordable housing, which is conducive to continuing to enhance the enthusiasm of local governments and banks for application and use, thereby increasing the "de-inventory" speed; 2) real estate development: based on the normalization mechanism of the whitelist and the closed circulation mechanism of pre-sale funds, we believe there is potential for optimizing the support for corporate financing, especially for policy-supported projects such as "existing house sales" and "good houses"; 3) urban renewal: the strengthening of village renovation requires matching practical and innovative financing systems to address pain points such as "funding balance." Among the aforementioned policy directions, the expansion of re-loans for affordable housing has been clearly articulated, and stockpiling is an important lever for "stabilizing the decline," which may still be the focus of industry policies in the short term Transitioning to "existing home sales" will still take time. Recently, the market attention on "existing home sales" has increased. According to incomplete monitoring by the China Index Academy, since the end of 2022, more than 30 provinces (municipalities) across the country have piloted existing home sales and introduced relevant support policies. According to data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024, the area of existing home sales in China is expected to be about 300 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with the proportion of existing home sales reaching 30.84%. From a short-term perspective, promoting existing home sales will impact the IRR and net profit margins of enterprises; against the backdrop of fluctuating housing prices, the return cycle for enterprises may lengthen, which could affect land investment enthusiasm and land fiscal revenue to some extent; however, from a long-term perspective, "existing home sales" protect the interests of homebuyers while also aligning with the trend of stable, healthy, and high-quality development in the industry. From a beneficiary perspective, real estate companies with strong product, capital, and management capabilities are expected to expand their advantages, intensifying the Matthew effect; considering the supportive tone of the industry fundamentals, we expect the transition to continue in the form of pilot expansion and new-old separation in the short term.

May new and second-hand housing year-on-year growth rate weakens

This week, the new housing market transacted 1.89 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 19.84%, down 2.60 percentage points from last month; cumulative inventory stands at 10.527 million square meters, with accelerated digestion in first, second, and third-tier cities and below. The second-hand housing market transacted 1.42 million square meters this week, with a month-on-month decline of 12.90%, down 29.72 percentage points from last month. From April 28 to May 4, the land market transacted a construction area of 1.14 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decline of 10.71%; the total transaction amount was 32.4 billion yuan, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 4.83%; the national average premium rate was 12.37%, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 5.80 percentage points.

This week, the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.41%, up 3.45 percentage points from last week, ranking 31/31 in terms of growth rate, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.59 percentage points. In the H-share market, the Wind Hong Kong Real Estate Index decreased by 0.05% this week, down 0.40 percentage points from last week, ranking 9/11 in terms of growth rate, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.66 percentage points; the CRIC domestic property stock leading index was -3.03%, down 1.99 percentage points from last week.

Investment recommendations: Policy statements indicate "promoting the stabilization of the real estate industry," and the turning point of the fundamentals may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policies continuing. On the trading side, the market's "bottom consensus" has strengthened, and the logic of "short-term policy game + medium to long-term valuation repair" is becoming smoother. In terms of allocation direction, we recommend prioritizing: ① non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt reduction, policy relief, and demand improvement under multiple logics for a turnaround; ② leading real estate companies with investment and product improvement advantages that possess unique cyclical resilience; ③ regional enterprises whose city fundamentals are differentiated and whose market share logic is improving; ④ second-hand intermediaries benefiting from the improvement in the prosperity of stock transactions. Among them, undervalued high-quality non-state-owned and local enterprises may benefit more from the elasticity of policies such as financing and storage.

In terms of targets, we recommend paying attention to 1) high-quality non-state-owned enterprises that have not encountered risks: Longfor Group (00960), Gemdale Corporation (600383.SH), New World Development (601155.SH), Greentown China (03900), and Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), etc 2) Local state-owned enterprises: Yuexiu Property (00123), Urban Construction Development (600266.SH), Jianfa International Group (01908), etc. 3) Leading central enterprises: China Overseas Development (00688), China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Resources Land, etc.; 4) High-quality property management: China Merchants Jin Yu (001914.SZ), Poly Property (06049), China Overseas Property (02669), China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), Wanwu Cloud (02602); 5) Intermediary companies: Beike (02423), Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560.SZ)