Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The domestic smart meter replacement peak is currently underway and is expected to continue until 2026 (with related concept stocks)

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the State Grid's 2025 batch tender for metering equipment includes 32 million electric meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8%; the total winning bid amount for metering equipment is 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.3%.

The domestic smart meter market is relatively mature, with demand mainly driven by the replacement and upgrade of existing stock.

From the perspective of the State Grid's smart meter tender volume, the peak of the last cycle for smart meters was in 2014-2015, with annual tender volumes exceeding 90 million units.

The new version of smart meters was finalized in 2020, and the tender volume gradually increased thereafter. In 2024, the total tender volume for State Grid smart meters is 89.39 million units, with a total winning bid amount of 24.92 billion yuan (including concentrators, collectors, dedicated transformer collection terminals, etc.), currently at the peak of a new cycle.

This year, the tender for metering equipment remains at three batches, and institutions expect the annual demand for electric meters to maintain around 90 million units, with the peak replacement period expected to continue until 2026.

Huatai Securities research report points out that the annual demand for electric meter tenders is expected to remain around 90 million units (89.39 million units in 2024), and the peak of this replacement cycle is expected to continue until 2026. In terms of price, there is a continued downward trend, with an overall quarter-on-quarter decline of about 9.6%; market concentration remains relatively stable. The subsequent requirements for distributed "four capabilities" will lead to increased demands for smart meter module upgrades and IoT meter needs, which are expected to drive related equipment investments. In recent years, electric meter companies have had good dividend payment situations, and we currently believe that the valuations of electric meter companies are at a low level.

Hong Kong stocks related to electric meters:

WASION HOLDINGS (03393): The company is a leading enterprise in the energy metering and energy efficiency management sub-industry, achieving multi-point expansion overseas while maintaining a stable domestic market share. Both revenue and profit have maintained rapid growth, with overseas market revenue of 2.397 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50%, accounting for 27% of the company's revenue, achieving a balanced layout in Asia, Africa, and Europe and America markets. The revenue from smart distribution and power supply systems and solutions (ADO) in 2024 is 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. Gross profit is 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The gross profit margin is 26.4%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year. Revenue from domestic grid customers, domestic non-grid customers, and overseas customers is 860 million yuan / 1.7 billion yuan / 340 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12% / 1% / 819%, respectively. The company continuously optimizes the structure of domestic centralized tender procurement business and expands the market. It continues to win bids for substation projects at the State Grid headquarters, with some new products winning bids for the first time, while also expanding into the northwest market. The company deepens industry cooperation with both domestic grid and non-grid markets