UBS: Lowers Samsonite target price to HKD 15.3, maintains "Neutral" rating

Zhitong
2025.07.02 08:10
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UBS released a research report stating that it has lowered the target price for Samsonite from HKD 16.3 to HKD 15.3, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Samsonite is set to announce its second-quarter results next month, and the bank expects them to generally meet expectations, forecasting a 4.6% decline in sales at constant exchange rates, similar to the first quarter; gross margin is expected to remain around 59%, reflecting minimal impact from tariffs due to the group's advance inventory preparations; adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter is expected to be USD 145 million. Furthermore, the bank believes that the group's revenue and profit in the second half of the year will depend on tariff rates and consumer confidence in various markets, with a conservative estimate suggesting a larger decline in revenue in the second half compared to the first half. For the full year, revenue is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to drop by 310 basis points to 15.9%. However, the bank noted that the group still has strong free cash flow, assuming a constant dividend payout ratio for the fiscal year 2025, the dividend amount would be USD 90 million, yielding 3.4%. The group could also enhance its yield through buybacks; after deducting dividends from free cash flow, the bank estimates that the group still has about USD 150 million available for buybacks, resulting in a yield of 5.6%

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, UBS has released a research report stating that it has lowered the target price for Samsonite (01910) from HKD 16.3 to HKD 15.3, maintaining a "Neutral" rating.

Samsonite is set to announce its second-quarter results next month, and the bank expects them to generally meet expectations, forecasting a 4.6% decline in sales at fixed exchange rates, similar to the first quarter; the gross profit margin is expected to remain around 59%, reflecting less impact from tariffs due to the group's advance inventory preparations; it is anticipated that the adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter will be USD 145 million. Furthermore, the bank believes that the group's revenue and profit in the second half of the year will depend on tariff rates and consumer confidence in various markets, with a conservative estimate suggesting that the revenue decline in the second half will be greater than in the first half. For the full year, it is expected that revenue will decline by 6% year-on-year, and the adjusted EBITDA margin will drop by 310 basis points to 15.9%.

However, the bank indicated that the group still has strong free cash flow. Assuming the dividend payout ratio remains unchanged for the fiscal year 2025, the dividend amount will be USD 90 million, with a yield of 3.4%. The group can also enhance the yield through buybacks; after deducting dividends from free cash flow, the bank believes the group still has about USD 150 million available for buybacks, resulting in a yield of 5.6%

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