Dongfang Securities: Overseas cloud vendors CAPEX revised upward, data center power demand activated

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Securities released a research report stating that the CAPEX related to overseas data centers has maintained high growth since the first half of 2024, and subsequent expectations have been continuously revised upward. In the second quarter of 2025, the CAPEX of Microsoft, Google, and Meta is all higher than expected based on previous estimates, as AI demand activates an upward trend in overseas capital expenditures. The iteration of AI demand activates the continuous evolution of AIDC power technology, and the importance of high efficiency, high density, and high stability power supplies will continue to increase. As mainland Chinese companies continue to iterate their technology, narrowing the technological gap with Taiwanese and foreign enterprises, and gradually integrating into the ecosystem through ODM/GPU enterprise certification/CSP enterprise certification, etc., mainland Chinese AI power companies are also expected to fully benefit from the overseas AI CAPEX boom.

The main points of Dongfang Securities are as follows:

Overseas CSP revises CAPEX expectations upward, data center construction sentiment rises

The CAPEX related to overseas data centers has maintained high growth since the first half of 2024, and subsequent expectations have been continuously revised upward. In the second quarter of 2025, the CAPEX of Microsoft, Google, and Meta is all higher than expected based on previous estimates, as AI demand activates an upward trend in overseas capital expenditures. Meta has revised its full-year CAPEX expectation to USD 66-72 billion (original expectation USD 64-72 billion). Google's capital expenditure for the 2025 fiscal year has been revised upward to USD 85 billion (original guidance USD 75 billion), and it has clearly stated that spending will further increase in 2026 due to strong cloud demand. Microsoft's CAPEX for Q2 2025 is USD 24.2 billion, and it is expected that capital expenditures in Q3 2025 will exceed USD 30 billion (the first relatively clear expectation given), with a year-on-year growth of over 50%.

Behind computing power is electricity, the importance of high efficiency, high density, and high stability power supplies increases

From the era of general computing to the era of intelligent computing, both the power consumption of a single card and the overall electricity scale have shown a significant upward trend, continuously testing the "quality and quantity" of electricity behind AIDC. The iteration of AI demand activates the continuous evolution of AIDC power technology, and the importance of high efficiency, high density, and high stability power supplies will continue to increase. From the power grid (10kV+) to the data center (800V/400V) to within the cabinet (50V) to the final chip (<1V), each link in the entire power chain faces varying degrees of technological iteration and upgrade, and the importance and value of the power system in AIDC are expected to continue to rise.

Overseas prosperity leads, export links are expected to take the lead

Due to reasons such as chip supply and planning rhythm, the overseas AIDC CSP prosperity cycle leads, and the related AI power export links are expected to be the first to benefit from the AI technology infrastructure wave. The barriers to the overseas AIDC power ecosystem are relatively high, with companies like Delta and Vertiv having strong technological and ecological advantages. Currently, the price and profit system of the overseas AIDC power market show significant attractiveness. As mainland Chinese companies continue to iterate their technology, narrowing the technological gap with Taiwanese and foreign enterprises, and gradually integrating into the ecosystem through ODM/GPU enterprise certification/CSP enterprise certification, etc., mainland Chinese AI power companies are also expected to fully benefit from the overseas AI CAPEX boom Target Aspects

AIDC Power: With the improvement of overseas AIDC investment sentiment, related power industry chain links are expected to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to Megmeet (002851.SZ), Hezhong Electric (603063.SH), Xinle Energy (300593.SZ), Tonghe Technology (300491.SZ), Oulu Tong (300870.SZ), and Zhongheng Electric (002364.SZ).

AIDC Power Supporting: During the construction of data center power supply, there is significant demand for power distribution. It is recommended to pay attention to Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), Mingyang Electric (301291.SZ), Weiteng Electric (688226.SH), and Liangxin Co., Ltd. (002706.SZ).

Risk Warning

Data center construction may fall short of expectations, significant iterations in data center power supply technology routes, geopolitical risks, and raw material supply chain risks