Ethereum Reclaims $3,600: When Will The $4,000 Resistance Break?

Benzinga
2025.08.05 10:21
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Ethereum has rebounded above $3,600, raising speculation about breaking the $4,000 resistance. Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts ETH could reach $5,300 to $7,500 by the end of 2025, despite expected short-term weakness. He draws parallels between ETH's current structure and Tesla's performance, suggesting a potential year-end rally. Key levels to watch include support around $2,400–$2,700 and resistance at the previous ATH of $4,800. Cowen warns of a possible bear market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding ETH's market behavior.

Ethereum’s ETH/USD has rebounded above $3,600, sparking a discussion about whether the coveted $4,000 resistance may fall soon.

What Happened: In his latest podcast, analyst Benjamin Cowen predicted Ethereum could hit new all-time highs between $5,300 and $7,500 by the end of 2025, based on a harmonic "butterfly effect" pattern.

Cowen expects short-term weakness to continue through September and October, mirroring historical cycle behaviour.

Cowen's outlook is rooted in Ethereum “going home” in April 2024, when ETH revisited its bull market support band for the first time since 2020.

"When Ethereum goes home, it's usually a good opportunity to buy," Cowen said, noting this behaviour often aligns with ETH bottoming vs. Bitcoin BTC/USD.

Drawing on past cycles, Cowen highlights that Ethereum's return to its regression band in 2016 and 2019 marked major bottom formations, followed by aggressive rallies to new highs.

He expects a similar path: August–September weakness, a higher low, then a breakout to fresh cycle highs.

Cowen also compares ETH's current structure to Tesla's 2023 performance: both assets formed macro higher lows in April, rallied into mid-July, then pulled back.

"Tesla may have given a blueprint for Ethereum," he observed, citing Tesla's December breakout as a model for ETH's potential year-end rally.

Disclosure: 82% of retail CFD accounts lose money

Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Continue Relief Rally Off Saturday Lows

What's Next: Cowen's $5,300–$7,500 target is based on the butterfly harmonic pattern, with outcomes depending on timing and structure.

If ETH breaks above $3,800–$3,900 before any September correction, the higher end of the range becomes more likely.

But a failure to break resistance soon could keep it near the lower target. Key levels to watch are:

  • Support: Bull market support band around $2,400–$2,700, rising over time.
  • Resistance: The previous ATH at $4,800, a critical level for trend continuation.

Cowen emphasized the risk of a harsh bear market in 2026, predicting Ethereum will eventually return to its regression band, despite hitting new highs beforehand.

"Path matters more than destination," he said, advising traders to understand ETH's tendency to retest support zones and to remain flexible in flipping bullish once key macro signals align.

  • Ethereum ETFs, Treasury Companies Now Hold Over $32B In ETH: Here’s What’s Driving The Frenzy

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