Guotai Junan Securities: In the first half of 2025, global TV shipments exceeded 90 million units, with a significant increase in Mini LED backlight TV shipments

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the global TV shipment volume in the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 92.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2%, showing slight growth. The market share of Chinese TV brands is steadily increasing, while the growth rate of Korean brands is declining. In the first half of the year, global MiniLED backlight TV shipments reached 6.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 141%. In terms of regions, the shipment volume in the Chinese market reached 3.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 226%; the North American market saw shipments of 730,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 61%. From the beginning of the year to now, the retail sales of home appliances have maintained high growth, with strong certainty in domestic demand growth, and sustained high demand in emerging markets for external demand, which is expected to drive exports to maintain good growth.

The main points of Guojin Securities are as follows:

Global TV shipments exceed 90 million units in 2025H1, domestic brands gradually surpass Korean manufacturers

In 2025H1, global TV shipments are expected to exceed 90 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The global TV shipment volume in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 92.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2%, showing slight growth. The market share of Chinese TV brands is steadily increasing, while the growth rate of Korean brands is declining. TCL's shipment volume in 2025 H1 is expected to reach 14.085 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with a market share rising to 15.2%; Hisense's shipment volume in 2025 H1 is expected to reach 13.82 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a market share rising to 14.9%; Xiaomi's shipment volume in 2025 H1 is expected to reach 5.399 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a slight decrease in market share to 5.8%. LG Electronics' shipment volume in 2025 H1 is expected to be 10.88 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with market share falling to 11.8%; Samsung Electronics' shipment volume in 2025 H1 is expected to be 16.55 million units, year-on-year flat, with market share falling to 17.9%.

Global Mini LED backlight TV shipments see significant growth, leading brands show strong advantages

In the first half of 2025, global MiniLED backlight TV shipments are expected to exceed 6 million units, showing substantial growth year-on-year. The global MiniLED backlight TV shipment volume in the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 6.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 141%.

In terms of regions, the shipment volume in the Chinese market reached 3.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 226%; the North American market saw shipments of 730,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 61%; the Western European market saw shipments of 800,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 68%; the Asia-Pacific market saw shipments of 690,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 115%; the Eastern European market saw shipments of 380,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 81%; the North American market saw shipments of 730,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 61%; the Latin American market saw shipments of 160,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%; the Middle East and Africa market saw shipments of 160,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%; the Japanese market saw shipments of 50,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 66%.

The MiniLED backlight TV market share is concentrated among leading brands

In the first half of 2025, the market share of leading brands in MiniLED backlight TVs such as TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi is expected to increase by 8 percentage points compared to 2024, ranking in the top three, with a combined market share of 69%.

Tracking exchange rates and shipping prices As of August 8, 2025, the central parity exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is reported at 7.14, with a weekly increase of 0.00% and a year-to-date change of 0.00%. Recently, container shipping market rates have slightly declined, with last week's export container freight rate composite index down by 2.56% month-on-month.

Real Estate Data Tracking

In June 2025, the cumulative area for newly started residential construction/residential construction/residential completion/residential sales nationwide was 22,288.31/441,239.90/16,266.21/38,357.94 million square meters, with year-on-year changes of -19.7%/-9.5%/-15.5%/-4.4%, respectively.

Investment Recommendations

Since the beginning of the year, retail sales of home appliances have maintained high growth, with strong certainty in domestic demand growth. The demand from emerging markets for external demand continues to be robust, which is expected to drive exports to maintain good growth. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) Look for investment opportunities in new product forms and new industry phases; 2) Favor high-quality companies with solid fundamentals in their main business and a focus on robotics; 3) Favor leading companies in black and white electrical appliances with solid fundamentals in their main business.

Risk Warning

Risks include fluctuations in domestic and foreign demand, intensified industry competition, fluctuations in raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and tariff fluctuations