Scott Bessent Says Trump Tariffs Delivering 'Historic Results,' GDP Growth Could Hit 5% — Justin Wolfers Hits Back: 'Ask American Manufacturers'
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims that Trump’s tariffs are yielding "historic results," predicting GDP growth could reach 5% with total tariff revenue potentially hitting $300 billion this year. He notes that each $300 billion adds 1% to GDP. However, economist Justin Wolfers counters this optimism, citing a Dallas Fed survey where 72% of American manufacturers reported negative impacts from the tariffs. The ISM's Manufacturing PMI also indicates ongoing contraction in the sector, highlighting the divide in perspectives on the tariffs' effectiveness.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is doubling down on the potential economic upsides of the tariffs, predicting massive revenue growth for the U.S. Government, alongside a boost to the domestic economy.
GDP Growth Could Hit 5%
On Tuesday, in a post on X, Bessent shared snippets of his recent appearance on Fox News, saying that the “tariffs are delivering historic results for the American people,” while projecting that “total tariff revenue could reach $300B this year, but it could be much higher.”
Bessent argued that the revenue surge could significantly lift the U.S. economy. “Every $300B adds 1% to GDP,” he said, adding, “With tariffs alone, growth could hit 5%.”
He reiterated the same point he made in his recent Fox News appearance, stating, “Just with the tariff income, we’re going to be in the fives, which is incredible,” adding that it was like running a marathon, “and starting five miles before everybody else.”
Bessent also highlighted a shift in the tone of the mainstream media and critics regarding the tariffs in recent weeks. “You’re starting to see in the mainstream media, whether it’s Wall Street Journal or The New York Times… people are getting addicted to tariff income.”
American Manufacturers Disagree
Bessent’s optimism, however, is not being shared by all, with University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers pushing back against claims that the tariffs “can help rebuild American manufacturing.”
On Tuesday, in a post on X, Woflers said, “Let’s ask American manufacturers whether they’re helping,” while sharing the latest data from the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Survey, according to which 72% of respondents said that their business was negatively impacted due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Only about 3.7% believed that Trump’s tariffs were having a positive impact, with 17% saying they have seen “No Impact” and 7% who “Don’t Know” about any such impact resulting from the tariffs so far.
On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August, reporting 48.7%, just above 48% in July, but still short of the key 50% mark that signals an expansion in manufacturing.
This marks the index’s sixth consecutive month of contraction, amid soaring costs and uncertainties resulting from the tariffs.
