Industrial Securities: Assigns GUMING a "Buy" rating, with an increase in cup price and order volume jointly driving store efficiency growth
Industrial Securities gives GUMING a "Buy" rating, expecting operating revenues of 12.36 billion, 14.87 billion, and 17.41 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.28 billion, 2.82 billion, and 3.30 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, the company achieved rapid growth in both revenue and profit driven by the dual push of store openings and improved operational efficiency, with significant increases in average daily GMV and cup output per store. It is expected that the number of new stores opened throughout the year will not be less than 3,000
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Industrial Securities released a research report stating that GUMING (01364) has the second-largest store scale in the industry, strong operational efficiency, high product quality, and vast store opening potential, and has not yet begun to expand overseas. The firm is optimistic about the company's performance release potential and gives it a "Buy" rating. In the first half of the year, the company achieved rapid growth in both revenue and profit driven by internal and external factors, improved single-store operational efficiency, and enhanced store profit levels, leading to an overall improvement in the group's profitability, with excellent performance. The firm expects the company's operating revenue for 2025/2026/2027 to be 12.36 billion, 14.87 billion, and 17.41 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.28 billion, 2.82 billion, and 3.30 billion yuan.
The firm stated that the company's store opening pace is in line with expectations. As of the first half of 2025, the total number of stores is 11,179, an increase of 1,265 from the end of 2024. Among them, the number of stores in first-tier cities, new first-tier cities, second-tier cities, third-tier cities, and fourth-tier and below cities are 318, 1,812, 3,207, 3,063, and 2,779, respectively, with net increases of 36, 131, 347, 395, and 356 stores from the end of 2024. The proportion of stores in lower-tier markets remains high. During the period, the company opened 1,570 stores and closed 305, resulting in a closure rate of 3.1%, which is considered reasonable. The company expects to open no less than 3,000 new stores throughout the year, and the store opening pace in the first half of the year is in line with expectations.
The report states that the increase in the average price per cup and the number of cups sold has jointly driven store efficiency growth. In the first half of 2025, the company's total GMV was 14.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%; the total number of cups sold was 800 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%; and the average price per cup was 17.3 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. In terms of single stores, the average daily GMV per store was 7,600 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%; the average daily number of cups sold per store was 439, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%
