更慢但更高更久！美联储开启紧缩的二阶段

摘要

• 联储宣布加息 75bp，符合预期。

• 重申回归 2% 的通胀目标将使自身保持限制性紧缩的政策立场。

• 对未来两次会议削减加息幅度持开放态度，并写进声明，在发布会以前被市场解读为鸽派信号。

• 发布会开启后，鲍威尔落下不少重话，风险资产多头丢盔卸甲。

• 本次会议无经济预测和点阵图，但视为联储进入政策紧缩二阶段的分水岭会议。

• 终端利率可能在 12 月迎来小幅的提升，加息的节奏虽然放缓，但高利率的久期被拉长（Higher for Longer）——直到联储对通胀下行的幅度与速度感到满意，又或者经济增长陷入难以容忍的衰退。

声明新增内容

The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

委员会预计不断提高政策利率的目标区间将是适当的，以达到足够的限制性的货币政策立场，使通货膨胀在一段时间内恢复到 2%。

在确定未来提高利率的速度时，委员会将考虑到货币政策持续累积的紧缩，货币政策影响经济活动和通货膨胀的滞后性，以及经济和金融发展。

附：这段表态可视为联储对未来放缓加息幅度开了个口子。

本次会议决定为全票通过。未体现出内部分歧。

附：通常联储在政策转向时会出现票委意见不一致导致的票型不一致的情况。

经济预测与点阵图

仅季末会议提供点阵图和经济预测。让我们期待下一次会议。

发布会亮点

本次议息会议的发布会有很多亮点，比如表情包：

图：鲍威尔回答 “美联储通讯社” 记者 Nick 提问时的表情

图：提到 “暂停加息的想法为时过早” 的时候，鲍威尔的肢体语言非常坚定。

亮点问题 1：有关紧缩政策的三要素。

答：how fast（多快），how high（多高）和 how long（多久）。

目前联储对加息节奏有所松口，但是对终端利率的高点以及高利率持续的久期问题表态依然偏鹰派。换句话说，在未来较长的一段时间内，市场需要容忍更高的利率环境。

同时，鲍威尔直言目前诸位的目光不应该放在加息的速率（fast）上了，第二和第三个问题更重要。确实 12 月和 1 月的会议上会开始讨论加息节奏的放缓。

“I'm pleased that we have moved as fast as I have. I don't think we've overtightened.”

亮点问题 2：有关声明提及货币政策的迟滞性。

答：压垮市场的一段话来了……

Let me say this, it is very premature to be thinking about pausing. When they hear lags, they think about a pause. It's very premature in my view to be thinking about or talking about pausing our rate hike.

想着暂停加息为时过早！直接打脸之前的 “转向论”。

亮点问题 3：有关市场和媒体最近关注比较多的 “风险管理”（Risk Management）

答：风险管理的视角下现在联储考虑的是紧得不够和松得过早，而不是紧过头和松太晚！

From a risk management standpoint we want to make sure that we don't make the mistake of either failing to tighten enough or loosening policy too soon.

亮点问题 4：有关就业市场与薪资通胀

答：没有出现薪资通胀螺旋，但是一旦出现了，你就麻烦了。目前就业市场依然强劲，恢复供需平衡仍有很长的路要走。

I also don't think we see a wage price spiral. But, again, it's not something you can -- once you see it, you're in trouble. We don't want to see it. We want wages to go up. We want them to go up at a level that's sustainable and consistent with 2% inflation.

亮点问题 5：有关海外风险是否会对货币政策构成影响？

答：依然着力于通胀，说明联储目前并不怎么在意全球目标，而是优先考虑本土目标，本土目标中，通胀又是最高优先级。

The world's not going to be better off if we fail to do that. That's a task we need to do. Price stability in the United States is a good thing for the global economy over a long period of time.

亮点问题 6：加息过头会怎么样？

答：鲍威尔给出了一个非常明确的答复，即他不担心在紧缩上做过头，理由很简单，加得越多以后降起来也毫无压力。

Again, if we overtighten and we don't want to -- we want to get this exactly right. But if we overtighten, then we have the ability with our tools, which are powerful, as we showed at the beginning of the pandemic episode. We can support economic activities strongly if that happens, if that's necessary.

亮点问题 7：你如何看待市场对你表态的反应？你乐见于大家往好处想吗？

答：直接泼冷水——我们还有很长的路要走。12 月的 SEP 中点阵图可能会指向更高。我们目前非常坚定地认为必须控制通胀回归目标，我们不想犯下做得不够多或者半途而废过早撤回强力紧缩政策的错误。

So I would also say it's premature to discuss pausing. It's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go.

 

The last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon.

亮点问题 8：软着陆的路是不是越走越窄了？

答：是的……但还是有可能软着陆的，但是很难。随着利率越高且持续高位，路变得越来越窄。

贝弗里奇曲线有异变，就业市场还是非常强，我们仍需观察。通胀也一直下不来。

we would have expected goods inflation to come down by now, long since by now. It really hasn't. Although -- actually it has come down, but not to the extent we had hoped. At the same time now you see services inflation, core services inflation moving up. I think the inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year, without question.

That means that we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path of a soft landing. I would say. Thanks very much.

本文来源：智堡 Wisburg，原文标题：《2022 年 11 月美联储 FOMC 议息会议笔记：开启紧缩的二阶段》