Goldman: Israel Attacks Unlikely To Have Any Immediate Large Effect on Oil Supply-Demand

Oct 9 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• SAYS ATTACKS IN ISRAEL UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY IMMEDIATE LARGE EFFECT ON NEAR-TERM SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE AND NEAR-TERM OIL INVENTORIES

• SAYS IT CONTINUES TO FORECAST THAT THE BRENT OIL PRICE RISES FROM $85/BBL AS OF FRIDAY TO $100/BBL BY JUNE 2024

• SAYS THE ESCALATING CONFLICT IN GAZA REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NEAR-TERM NORMALIZATION IN SAUDI-ISRAELI RELATIONS

• CONTINUES TO ASSUME THAT SAUDI UNWINDS THE EXTRA 1MB/D PRODUCTION CUT, ANNOUNCED IN JUNE 2023 AND EXTENDED THROUGH DECEMBER 2023, ONLY GRADUALLY BY 2025Q1

• STILL EXPECT SAUDI CRUDE PRODUCTION TO STAY FLAT AT 9MB/D THROUGH 2024Q1, AND THEN START RISING BY 0.25MB/D PER QUARTER IN THE REST OF 2024

• THIS WEEKEND’S DEVELOPMENTS REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF AN EARLY UNWIND OF THE SAUDI PRODUCTION CUTS

• SAYS A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO WHERE SAUDI CRUDE PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 9MB/D IN 2024—A SCENARIO WHICH NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN BEFORE THE WEEKEND— WOULD RAISE OUR DECEMBER 2024 BRENT PRICE FORECAST TO $104/BBL

• SAYS A SCENARIO WHERE SAUDI CRUDE PRODUCTION RISES BY 1MB/D TO 10MB/D IN JANUARY 2024—WHICH WOULD LOWER OUR DECEMBER 2024 BRENT PRICE FORECAST BY $8/BBL TO $92/BBL—NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN BEFORE

• WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BROADER REGIONAL TENSIONS RE-ESCALATING, RISKS TO IRANIAN PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS ARE NOW TILTED TO THE DOWNSIDE

• ANY 100KB/D DECLINE IN IRAN 2024 PRODUCTION RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE WOULD MECHANICALLY RAISE THE END-2024 BRENT OIL PRICE BY JUST OVER $1/BBL