上周五，美股 ETF 标普 SPY 创下单日吸金 208 亿美元的新纪录。投资者从科技股获利了结，转向价值股，导致大量资金流入标普 500 成分股。此次资金大举流入的原因包括美联储转鸽态度、指数重新平衡、期权到期以及圣诞节前后的市场上涨趋势。这些因素共同导致了投资者向 SPY 投入更多资金。总的来说，这是一次有关投资动向和市场活动的新闻事件。

上周五单日吸金 208 亿美元！“美股 ETF 标杆” 标普 SPY“从没见过这么多钱”

高盛：红海供应的中断不太可能对原油和液化天然气价格产生重大影响，因为船只改道的机会意味着生产不应直接受到影响。

中金认为，美联储 2024 年转向概率较高！为什么？而在美联储真正转向前，预计 “转向交易” 或将间歇性发生！

解读美联储：明年政策会转向么？

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that it may be appropriate to lower benchmark interest rates next year due to the improvement in inflation this year. The Fed's goal is to bring the inflation rate down to 2%, but they hope to do so in a gradual manner. She has a similar expectation for considering rate cuts starting in 2024 and expects the Fed to lower rates by 75 basis points next year, bringing the inflation rate to around 2.4%. She believes it is too early to speculate on when the rate cuts will happen and is more focused on the developments in 2023. Daly believes that maintaining stable rates will reduce the possibility of excessive tightening, but still believes that a 75 basis point reduction in benchmark rates would be sufficient to provide restraint.

Fed's Daly: To prevent excessive tightening, rate cuts may be needed next year

After multiple ships were attacked in the Red Sea, several international shipping companies announced the suspension of navigation in the Red Sea, leading to a surge in European natural gas prices. The value of power and natural gas assets that focus on high dividends has become prominent. Relevant targets include ENN ENERGY, CHINA RES GAS, CHINA GAS HOLD, and KUNLUN ENERGY. The Red Sea is an important route for energy product transportation, and diverting through the Cape of Good Hope will increase time and costs. The European natural gas market is still affected by the risk of supply disruptions. The incident in the Red Sea has raised concerns about natural gas transportation.

Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Red Sea Crisis Affects Global Supply Chain, Multiple Airlines Suspend Flights and Push up International Gas Prices, Highlighting the Value of Natural Gas Asset Allocation (with Concept Stocks)

The policy shift by the Federal Reserve has forced the most pessimistic bears on Wall Street to change their views on the US stock market. Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley said that the Fed's shift is a positive for the stock market, and Michael Kantrowitz of Piper Sandler also believes that the market rally may continue. Wall Street strategists have become more optimistic about the stock market in 2024, but their forecasts remain conservative.

Big mistake! The most pessimistic bears on Wall Street are turning around: willing to let go of their arrogance and take a more optimistic view of the future market.

The risk of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict spilling over has already affected international shipping. Analysts predict that the risk of supply chain disruptions will further intensify, and there is also a risk of the "artery" of shipping, the Suez Canal, being closed.

What does the "Red Sea blockade" mean when oil prices soar, shipping stocks surge, global capacity is reduced by 20%, and Israel's imports are affected by 30%?

The CEO of Grayscale Investments has stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) should approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously to create a fair competitive environment. He added that Grayscale Investments is ready to convert its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF and reduce fees. Grayscale Investments has already won a ruling in its attempt to convert its trust into an ETF. Analysts and market observers are closely watching which company will be the first to launch its own product in the competitive Bitcoin ETF market. The competition for Bitcoin ETFs may come to an end in the next few weeks. Regulatory agencies need to weigh the applications from Ark Investment and 21Shares.

Grayscale Investments CEO: The US SEC should approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications simultaneously.

中国政府拟推动保障性住房建设进一步发展，这也是中国大陆房地产行业构建 “新发展模式” 的关键领域之一。中金认为，在中国大陆市场，对于购置型产品，理顺 “保障” 与 “商品” 的关系或是未来的核心命题。根据对海外市场的历史经验辨析，中国大陆现面临的市场矛盾可从中国香港的历史中窥见较为类似的情状。具体内容请参阅原文。

中金：在中国保障房市场行将演进之前的一些思考

The attacks on Red Sea vessels by Iran-backed Houthi militants have shaken global trade. The transportation of goods and fuel may face more disruptions and price increases. Several shipping companies have suspended Red Sea routes, posing more threats to global trade. The United States will form a new force with other countries to protect vessels in the region, and Israeli shipping companies will temporarily halt the acceptance of goods bound for Israel. British Petroleum will also suspend Red Sea shipping activities. These events have significant implications for global trade and the shipping industry.

Several shipping companies have temporarily suspended the Red Sea route, posing more threats to global trade disruptions.

优必选港交所公告，申请通过香港 IPO 发行 1130 万股股票，发行价指导区间为每股 86.0-116.0 港元，预计股票将从 12 月 29 日开始交易。

主要与苹果手表的血氧传感器专利纠纷有关！苹果公司被要求停止在美国销售其核心产品，是前所未有的。更重要的是，当前正值重要的销售旺季节假日期间！

多款 Apple Watch 为何在美停售？

Goldman Sachs predicts that the US dollar index will fall by more than 3% in the next 12 months, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times next year.

The Federal Reserve's shift has led to the first "net short position" in the US dollar in three months. Goldman Sachs predicts that the US dollar "will continue to decline."

客户被 “欺诈” 也要自行承担 30% 亏损，典型案例判了。一审法院驳回原告卫龙武的全部诉讼请求，但二审认为中方信富公司存在欺诈投资者行为，应赔偿卫龙武的损失。考虑到双方过错，最终判决中方信富公司承担 70% 的赔偿责任。

客户被 “欺诈” 也要自行承担 30% 亏损，典型案例判了

Tencent, the Chinese tech giant, has shut down its U.S. video game studio, Team Kaiju, as part of its global expansion plan. The studio was working on a multiplayer game before being shut down. Tencent has been focusing on building studios overseas and developing games for international markets. This move comes after the company recently unveiled its ambitious console game, Last Sentinel, developed by its Lightspeed LA studio. No official comments have been made by Tencent regarding the shutdown.

Tencent shuts US video games studio Team Kaiju — source

NIO-SW has reached a share subscription agreement with CYVN Holdings L.L.C. CYVN will subscribe to 294 million newly issued Class A common shares of NIO-SW at a price of $7.50 per share, with a total value of $2.2 billion. Prior to this, CYVN had made a strategic equity investment of $738.5 million in NIO-SW. After the completion of the transaction, CYVN will hold approximately 20.1% of NIO-SW's shares. NIO-SW founder Li Bin stated that NIO-SW will continue to strengthen its brand positioning, enhance sales and service capabilities, and make long-term investments in core technologies to consolidate its leading position in the automotive industry transformation. Jassem Al Zaabi, Chairman of CYVN, stated that this investment demonstrates confidence in NIO-SW's position in the global smart electric vehicle industry and will become its long-term strategic partner.

NIO Inc. surged 9% in pre-market trading, securing a new round of strategic investment from the Middle East worth $2.2 billion.

新东方美股盘前涨近 10%，高途一度大跌 21%。消息面上，俞敏洪任命董宇辉为新东方教育科技集团董事长文化助理，兼任新东方文旅集团副总裁。

港交所文件：阿里巴巴将其在 GoGoX 的持股比例从 11.17% 削减至 10.42%。

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX Trading Ltd. has submitted its latest restructuring plan, which aims to return billions of dollars to its customers and creditors. This marks the beginning of the final round of arguments in the company's bankruptcy case. The restructuring plan leaves some questions unanswered, including whether FTX will reopen its exchange, how the value of digital tokens will be assessed, and how much creditors will be able to recover. The plan is scheduled to be voted on by creditors next year and then ultimately approved by a US bankruptcy judge. The founder of FTX has been convicted of fraud, leading to the collapse of the company.

FTX has submitted a new restructuring plan to return billions of dollars to creditors.

* 高盛引述小鹏-W 管理层指目前扩大销量至关重要 对本季毛利率看法正面

12 月 18 日，一米八农业科技公司正式成立，由蚂蚁集团前 CEO、前阿里合伙人胡晓明担任董事长兼首席品控官。胡晓明在朋友圈发文称，“我们第一个专注海洋优质蛋白的公司–一米八海洋科技也正式成立，并发布两款优质产品: 舟山峡泗列岛贻贝和温州南鹿岛大黄鱼。目前在盒马渠道有售，接下来还会尽快在天猫等更多线上和线下渠道出售。

马云开卖贻贝和大黄鱼

Federal Reserve officials' remarks have cooled down market speculation about an imminent interest rate cut. On December 18th, the Hong Kong dollar's short-term interest rates rebounded, with the two-week interbank rate rising by 77 basis points to 5.35952%, surpassing the 5% mark. The one-month interbank rate, which is related to property mortgages, also ended its six-week decline and rose from a three-week low to 5.46054%, reaching a new high in over a week. The overnight rate has risen for two consecutive days and is currently at 4.23119%, the highest since December 8th. The three-month interbank rate, which reflects the cost of bank funds, ended its six-week decline and rebounded to 5.34095%. However, the long-term rates continued to decline, with the six-month and one-year rates both falling to 5.28399%. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Williams, stated that the Fed is not currently discussing an interest rate cut and if necessary, the authorities must be prepared to raise rates again. His remarks have tempered market expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Fed, resulting in a rebound in the US dollar exchange rate.

Hong Kong dollar short-term interest rates rebounded, with two-week interbank rates rising sharply by 77 basis points to reach 5%.

东方甄选涨幅扩大至 20%，此前董宇辉升为东方甄选高级合伙人。

在昨天（12 月 17 日）最新一场直播里，东方甄选的预估 GMV 达到 1 亿以上，观看人次接近 7000 万，是之前平均水平的七倍。 根据飞瓜数据·抖音版整理了近 30 天东方甄选的带货情况，发现东方甄选的单场直播通常是 14-16 个小时，场均预估 GMV 在 1000 万-2500 万之间，场均观看人次在 1000 万左右。在 “小作文” 事件发酵后，东方甄选直播间的人气和销售额的确有过短期的下降，但很快又回到了平均值水平以上。

东方甄选昨日 GMV 预估 1 亿以上，观看人次接近 7000 万

中国电池生产商瑞浦兰钧今日在香港挂牌上市，股价一度涨超 7%，市值达 447.65 亿港元。此次 IPO 募集资金约 21 亿港元，是香港今年第四大 IPO。

中金认为，基本面并不支持过早降息，但在降息初期，资产可以这么看：先股后债，新兴修复！其中，美股修复程度取决于增长压力，新兴修复程度更高。

解读美联储：未来如何降息？

近期，随着新能源汽车 800V 高压快充车型的密集发布，头部新能源车企如极氪、华为、理想汽车、小鹏汽车等在大功率超充桩的建设方面陆续提出明确的规划目标，为充电桩后续建设持续贡献新动能，同时引领充电桩设备朝着高功率、液冷散热等技术方向升级，超充桩产业链上下游公司有望受益。

中信证券：车企下场加速布局 超充桩产业链有望受益

全球通胀下行速度超预期，对欧美央行和市场有重要影响。华泰证券发布的研究报告指出，海外主要经济体通胀走势大多低于市场预期，全球通胀可能继续超预期下行。这将导致欧美央行采取更宽松的货币政策，并可能引发 “衰退焦虑”。制造业 “去通胀” 推动全球核心商品通胀回落，服务业通胀也有望继续下降。全球房价已见顶，房租通胀有望正常化。此外，欧美薪资增长可能回落。总体而言，全球通胀下行速度超预期的宏观含义值得关注。

华泰证券：全球通胀下行速度超预期的宏观含义

恒指开盘跌 0.73%，恒生科技指数跌 0.85%。商汤跌超 14%，小鹏汽车跌超 5%，哔哩哔哩跌超 2%，阿里健康、网易跌近 2%。

With market expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to shift to a loose monetary policy, investors generally believe that bonds with shorter maturities and yields above 4% are the best investment option at the moment. The consensus on Wall Street is now very clear: two-year US Treasury bonds are the best investment on the yield curve, with a yield of around 4.4%, which is attractive and higher than any other maturity of government bonds. Investors lack interest in long-term securities because they expect the yield curve to steepen and return to a more typical upward trend.

After the major shift by the Federal Reserve, increasing holdings of short-term US bonds has become the new consensus on Wall Street.

阿里巴巴计划减持小鹏汽车 2,500 万股，套现 3.91 亿美元，持股比例从 10.2% 降至 7.5%，但仍是小鹏汽车第二大股东。阿里巴巴称此举是出于资本管理目标，而非对小鹏的看法变化，表示将继续与小鹏在云计算等领域开展合作。小鹏方面表示，阿里减持是执行季报提及的投资变现回报股东策略，对小鹏前景仍持乐观态度。

阿里减持小鹏套现 3.91 亿美元 持股降至 7.5%

SENSETIME-W announced that after the passing of Professor Tang Xiaou, his holdings of 6.906 billion Class A shares will be converted into Class B shares. After the conversion, there will be 614.03 million Class A shares, accounting for approximately 15.75% of the company's voting rights, and 32.855 billion Class B shares, accounting for approximately 84.25% of the company's voting rights. Professor Tang and related entities have committed not to sell the Class A and Class B shares within two years. The total number of converted Class A and Class B shares is 8.034 billion and 614.03 million, accounting for approximately 36.35% of the company's voting rights.

SenseTime-W: Tang Xiaoyou indirectly converted 6.906 billion Class A shares into Class B shares.

三个月整存整取利率攀上 1.5%，部分银行年末 “发红包”

新东方创始人俞敏洪表示，将对东方甄选进行一轮大调整，包括董宇辉等主播的薪资待遇。他希望通过此次调整为公司奠定良好的发展方向和基础。俞敏洪还表示，希望东方甄选能在宇辉和团队的努力以及自己的带领下，在未来发展得更好。

俞敏洪：东方甄选将很快启动一轮大调整，包括董宇辉等主播薪资

新政落地后，京沪楼市出现了一些积极的变化。部分二手房中介门店的带看量有所提升，首付压力减小，有二手置换客买大 20 平方米。新政也有利于打通二手房、新房市场的销售通道，新房项目的到访量提升 50%，北京单日新房成交涨 30%。这些变化对购房者的决策产生了影响。

京沪新政落地首个周末：有二手房置换客买大 20 平米，新楼盘到访量提升 50%

The private credit market in the blockchain is recovering, with a growth of 55% so far this year. More and more companies are using blockchain-based private credit to seek financing, as it offers lower rates and higher transparency compared to traditional credit providers. The active private loans on the digital ledger have reached approximately $408 million. However, this number is still lower than last year's peak and only represents a small portion of the traditional private credit market. Advocates of blockchain believe that it can reduce loan risks and make transactions more transparent and convenient.

The private credit market in the blockchain sector has rebounded, with a growth of 55% year-to-date.

甲骨文公司发布季度财报，云计算收入放缓导致股价下跌超 10%，市值减少约 2813 亿人民币。甲骨文的估值稍高，股价下跌可视为对过度估值的纠正。市场对甲骨文增强云基础设施能力表示担忧，管理层承诺保持 50% 以上的 OCI 增长，缓解英伟达 GPU 供应问题，并持续整合扩展 Cerner 业务。此外，市场也担忧其他主流云计算企业的资本开支低于预期。

外资看财报「甲骨文」：云计算开支不及预期

Zhao Haibin believes that the economic growth rate next year will be close to the target. It is expected that the central bank may provide support of trillions of yuan, focusing on affordable housing and the transformation of urban villages, through structural monetary policy tools such as PSL, to provide more obvious support. It is recommended that the government purchase commercial housing through "group procurement" and convert it into affordable housing.

Morgan Stanley's Zhu Haibin: It is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will remain at 3.8% next year. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points and reserve requirements by 75 basis points. | Alpha Summit

下一步，谷歌需要把 Gemini 大模型整合进旗下产品，同时又不蚕食搜索等现有业务份额。

谷歌这一年：从恐慌到豪赌，All In AI 大战

李彦宏在一场对谈中表示，人工智能的大模型具有通用性，能够在各种场景下快速应用，这是 AI 出现 70 年来完全不同的机会。他强调大模型的关键在于应用，提出了三个发展好应用的关键因素。他认为，现有企业应利用大模型对业务核心指标产生正向作用，同时需要更多创业公司进行尝试。总结来说，大模型的出现为 AI 带来了巨大的机遇。

李彦宏：AI 出现 70 年来完全不一样的机会，几百个模型是对社会资源巨大浪费

金十数据 12 月 17 日讯，在俞敏洪和董宇辉出面平息大家质疑后，东方甄选又一高管发声。12 月 16 日，东方甄选 CFO 尹强在朋友圈表示，新东方的故事总会有一个 happy ending，黑夜足够长，才让人们觉得黎明的光是那么亮，让大家操心了。截至 17 日 12 时，董宇辉粉丝数量依旧在飞速上涨，已达到 2049.0 万，此前一天的 12 月 16 日 10 点 30 分，其粉丝数量为 1696.6 万，一天内涨粉超 352 万。

董宇辉粉丝数已突破 2000 万 东方甄选 CFO：新东方的故事总会有个圆满结局

罗永浩直言东方甄选是直播电商中最不公平、荒唐、欺负压榨年轻人的现象级公司。他认为董宇辉在东方甄选的贡献没有得到公平回报，应该拿走至少一半的收益才算公平。罗永浩认为，东方甄选可能因为董宇辉性格上的问题，这种现象会持续下去。他称这个事件 “荒唐”“恶心”，并对东方甄选的做法表示不满。

罗永浩 “炮轰” 东方甄选

随着冲突事态升级，两大航运巨头暂停红海运输，苏伊士运河面临关闭风险，全球供应链雪上加霜。马士基和赫伯罗特已暂停红海和曼德海峡的航行计划，可能重新绕非洲航行。此举将增加全球贸易成本和延误。航运业呼吁制止违反国际法的行为。运输成本可能跳涨，全球航运市场混乱。苏伊士运河关闭的可能性很小，但仍存在风险。

两大航运巨头暂停红海运输，全球海运堵塞加剧！

You can leave anytime if you're not happy.

Dong Yuhui has lost his spark.

俞敏洪：正策划带着董宇辉去国外直播。

The CEO of Intel claims that Nvidia's CUDA technology has a shallow and small moat, and asserts that for artificial intelligence, inference technology will be more important than training.

Intel CEO criticizes Nvidia's "AI moat": The entire industry is motivated to eliminate the CUDA market

俞敏洪：罢免孙东旭与董宇辉无关，主要是管理不善。

董宇辉：还是会继续在东方甄选，不希望自己摇身一变成为卖货主播。

商汤科技创始人汤晓鸥因病去世，猎豹移动董事长傅盛悼念并提醒创业者保重身体。傅盛还建议大家查查心肌酶，因为新冠病毒可能会导致心肌受损。