比特币涨超 1%，向上触及 43000 美元/枚。

Analysis suggests that ByteDance's revenue is expected to increase by 30% YoY in 2023, with ByteDance's e-commerce business becoming a growth engine for the company.

Report: ByteDance's revenue in 2023 exceeds $110 billion, surpassing Tencent.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the market's expectations of interest rate cuts in March are somewhat overly optimistic. The bank believes that in the next two months, inflation may rebound and the cooling of the labor market may also be relatively slow, which could delay the timing of interest rate cuts until June.

Morgan Stanley: US inflation is expected to rebound in the next two months, making it unlikely for interest rates to be lowered in March next year!

美国证交会备忘录显示，黑石、纳斯达克和美国证交会今日举行会议，讨论设立比特币 ETF 的监控和合规措施，以确保市场完整性和防范欺诈活动。预计比特币 ETF 即将到来，市场应做好准备，明年格局可能会有所变化。

美证交会探讨比特币 ETF 市场预期似乎愈发明朗

香港证监会发布新闻告诫公众，提防涉嫌虚拟资产欺诈行为的实体 LonShiX 和 Bitbank Financial Holding Group。警方已封锁相关网站和账户。

香港证监会告诫公众提防 LonShiX 等涉嫌虚拟资产相关欺诈行为

The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting stance has boosted investor optimism in the US stock market IPOs. Currently, the upward trend in the US stock market has expanded to include small-cap stocks and other sectors, and it is expected that companies preparing to go public may accelerate their IPO timelines. However, the timing of a significant recovery in the new stock market remains uncertain, depending on the decline in the federal funds rate and seasonal factors. The market expects a 75 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate next year. In addition, there are risks associated with the US election and the pandemic. Bankers are cautiously optimistic about the return of larger-scale IPOs next year.

With the possibility of a Fed rate cut, will the US IPO market no longer experience a "false recovery" next year?

Tesla has cut prices for its electric cars in China more than BYD did for its flagship Han sedan, according to a study by JL Warren Capital. Tesla reduced the price of its Model 3 by 6% and the Model Y by 11%, while BYD's Han only saw a 5% price decrease. This price competition reflects the intense market competition in China's electric vehicle industry.

Tesla cut EV prices in China more than BYD did for its flagship Han sedan this year, study finds

Despite the potential challenges of Bitcoin spot ETF, the CEO of MicroStrategy stated that the company still finds Bitcoin investment attractive. The company offers leveraged high-performance investment tools and holds $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. Analysts expect the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve the Bitcoin spot ETF by mid-January. Saylor stated that the strategy of purchasing Bitcoin through zero-interest "smart" leverage will maintain the company's competitiveness. MicroStrategy's stock price has surged over 300%, surpassing the increase in Bitcoin.

Facing potential challenges from Bitcoin spot ETF, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor remains confident.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that cryptocurrency is the future of currency. Despite regulatory obstacles, the price of cryptocurrencies has risen by 90% this year. Armstrong believes that cryptocurrency regulation in the United States is "lagging behind" other countries, but he remains optimistic about the longevity of cryptocurrencies. The approval of a Bitcoin ETF could stimulate renewed investment from investors and institutional capital, while also increasing awareness among the general public. Cryptocurrencies are not just a speculative asset class, but can also be used for various practical purposes such as stablecoin payments, commercial remittances, and DeFi lending. People are now starting to build a new type of application platform known as Web3.

Coinbase CEO: Cryptocurrency is the "future of currency."

作为中国商界一个独特的存在，京东曾经无限风光，万亿市值，稳居电商老二，依靠优质服务实现了口碑与利润的双丰收。然而，电商江湖，没有永恒的壁垒，只有变化。三年之前，京东市值还与拼多多站在同一起跑线，3 年后的今天，拼多多一骑绝尘完成了对前浪阿里的市值反超。

“不躺平” 的刘强东能再造京东吗？

In 2024, as the hype subsides, the AI industry will experience a significant transformation and reshuffling.

2024 AI Six Major Predictions: OpenAI's Transformation, Apple's Entry... The AI battlefield will see a major reshuffle

据港交所微博，香港圣诞节假期将至，投资者请留意沪深港通交易安排。北向沪股通和深股通及南向港股通将于 12 月 25 日至 12 月 26 日暂停交易。12 月 27 日，沪深港通将如常开通。

港交所：沪深港通下周一、下周二暂停交易

亚洲股市在美股走强的带动下继续上涨。日经 225 指数创下一周来最大盘中涨幅，中国香港、韩国和澳大利亚的股指也走高。美国国债收益率下滑，市场猜测日本央行退出负利率政策的猜测降温，日本国债收益率下跌。美元指数走低后企稳，亚洲货币涨跌互现。比特币下跌，以太币基本持平。西德克萨斯中质原油和现货黄金基本持平。

亚市午盘：亚股接力美股走强

EAST BUY's stock price has dropped more than 7%, and as of the time of writing, it has fallen by 7.08% to HKD 29.55, with a turnover of HKD 381 million. On the news front, on the evening of December 18th, Yu Minhong and Dong Yuhui conducted a live broadcast on the EAST BUY account. Yu Minhong and Dong Yuhui revealed that Dong Yuhui will have another live broadcast on the 21st before taking a long vacation. In addition, according to data from the third-party short video e-commerce digital marketing service platform, Chananma, on the evening of the 18th, Dong Yuhui's return to the first live broadcast resulted in a significant increase in the number of viewers in the EAST BUY live room, with a slight increase in sales volume and sales revenue, but a decrease in the conversion rate (sales volume/viewers), dropping from about 2.8% on the 17th to 2%. Previously, on the evening of December 17th, EAST BUY announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the board of directors had decided on December 16th to remove Sun Dongxu from the position of CEO and dismiss him from his position as an executive director of the company. In addition, Dong Yuhui was promoted to senior partner. Yu Minhong also announced on his personal Douyin account that, after the board of directors' research and decision, Dong Yuhui has been appointed as the cultural assistant to the board of directors of New Oriental Education & Technology Group and concurrently serves as the vice president of New Oriental Culture & Tourism Group. With this, the "short essay" incident comes to an end with relevant personnel changes.

Hong Kong Stock Market News | EAST BUY falls more than 7%, Dong Yuhui announces another long vacation

Tesla's prospects have raised concerns on Wall Street, with several investment banks lowering their growth expectations for the company. Analysts suggest that some of Tesla's electric vehicles may lose eligibility for government subsidies, putting pressure on the company's revenue. According to data, Wall Street's outlook on Tesla's performance is increasingly pessimistic, with profit forecasts declining and delivery expectations being adjusted. These bearish comments reflect the intensified competition and the loss of incentives that Tesla is facing. Investors should exercise caution when dealing with the price fluctuations of Tesla's stock.

Is the electric car boom over? Multiple investment banks lower Tesla's growth expectations.

萨尔瓦多总统的比特币投资浮亏约 8%。现货比特币 ETF 获批或将带来超 700 亿美元资本流入。GBTC 转换为比特币现货 ETF 后，摩根大通预计将流出 27 亿美元资金。超过 1 年未活跃的比特币流通供应量比例达 70.35%，创历史新高。灰度 GBTC 负溢价率进一步收窄至 9.78%。Coinbase 的储备增加约 1.2 万枚 BTC，Binance 的储备减少 5000BTC。新加坡将于 2024 年起禁止保证金杠杆交易。韩国将于 2024 年邀请 10 万公民测试 CBDC。美 CFTC 拟继续追查违规加密交易所，接触美国客户是特权而非权力。SBF 与洪都拉斯前总统被关押在一起，向警卫提供加密投资建议。

每日数字货币动态汇总

The stock prices of American oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron have fallen this year, due to the impact of macroeconomic conditions, operational challenges, and fluctuations in crude oil prices in 2023. ExxonMobil's net profit and earnings per share in the third quarter have declined by more than half, and Chevron's net profit has also decreased. Despite this, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about these two stocks and have given them a "buy" rating. In addition, both companies are actively engaged in mergers and acquisitions.

Will ExxonMobil and Chevron be able to turn around next year as energy prices plummet in 2023?

Alibaba announced that CEO Wu Yongming will also serve as CEO of Taotian Group, ensuring unified command of core strategies. Within three months of taking over as CEO of Alibaba Group, Wu Yongming has clarified the strategic focus and priority choices for the entire group, made resolute decisions around the core business, and comprehensively promoted the rejuvenation of the management team. With Wu Yongming concurrently serving as the top executive of Alibaba Cloud and Taotian, it will help lead Taotian's transformation through technological innovation and ensure unified command and high-intensity continuous investment in the two strategic focuses of e-commerce and cloud for the group.

Alibaba Group CEO Wu Yongming concurrently serves as CEO of Taotian Group to ensure unified command of core strategies.

Some buyers choose to wait and see, waiting for market prices they can accept. NVIDIA's stock price fell by about 1%, and the outlook for AI GPU chip demand showed a mixed expectation. The "price game" signal between buyers and sellers has emerged, especially when some buyers choose to wait and see, waiting for market prices they can accept. The channel forecast for data center GPU shipments remains largely unchanged, and chip shortages are expected to continue for some time, especially with the tight supply of chips from TSMC. NVIDIA's customers are still testing the H200 and L20 chips, and it is expected that the scale of customer trials will increase in the first half of 2024. Some customers may prefer to wait and see temporarily, waiting for market prices they can accept. It is not yet clear why NVIDIA's AI GPU demand suddenly showed a mixed forecast, but it is speculated that it may be related to the launch of new products and the release of powerful chips by competitors.

Is the "price game" of AI chips emerging? Will Nvidia's monopoly face variables?

The Hong Kong stock market tends to follow trends. Often, by the time retail investors realize the medium to long-term trend, the stock price has already approached its high point. Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have stagnant funds and low trading volume. The Chinese securities brokerage sector has experienced the greatest volatility recently, with rumors of mergers and acquisitions heating up. The mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry are expected to enter an accelerated period, but the attractiveness of the securities sector to off-exchange speculative funds seems to be declining. The A-share market in the Beijing Stock Exchange has shown obvious profitability, attracting new speculative funds. The IPO market in the Beijing Stock Exchange is gradually heating up, with 34 companies accepted since September. It is expected that the trading volume in the Beijing Stock Exchange can exceed 80 billion yuan per day next year.

Is Hang Seng Index gradually approaching the turning point of a bear market?

恒指开盘涨 0.87%，恒生科技指数涨 1.36%。蔚来涨超 6%，京东集团涨超 4%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩涨超 2%。

中国 12 月一年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) 3.45%，预期 3.45%，前值 3.45%。

中国 12 月五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) 4.2%，预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%。

如果把纳斯达克 100 看作一种长期债券，其公允价值应该是 12877 点，比当前报价水平低了 23%。如果市场已经和合理估值脱钩，那么过去两月的大涨意味着该指数现在已经出现了泡沫！

理解市场 | 今年涨超 50%！纳指为什么已经太贵了？

散户投资者成为美股上涨的主要推动者，以 18 个月来最快的速度买入，上个月股市总需求超过 600 亿美元。散户通常是 ETF 的买家，上个月以美元计算创下历史新高。标普 500 ETF 自美联储 FOMC 以来已连续 4 天出现大量资金流入。

腾讯和网易相继进军派对游戏市场，腾讯自研的派对游戏《元梦之星》上线五天就获得了巨大成功，成为国民游戏的潜力之作。据七麦数据显示，该游戏在 iOS 平台已获得超过 5000 万元人民币的流水，预计安卓端收入更高。派对游戏市场正在从过去的 “小众” 走向 “大众”。

派对游戏成社交游戏新贵？ 腾讯、网易双巨头纷纷入局

特斯拉公司的管理人员对一些受薪员工说，公司今年不会提供基于绩效的股权奖励。该公司没有给出这一变化的原因。但来自不同部门的四名员工表示，他们认为这种调整是普遍的。工人们的生活成本仍有适度的增长，基本工资也有所调整。目前尚不清楚这是一次反常现象，还是特斯拉薪酬理念发生了更大的转变，即在股权授予方面采取了更有针对性的方式。

消息称特斯拉不进行年度员工股票奖励

美国法院批准了一项命令，要求币安和其创始人赵长鹏向 CFTC 支付总额为 28.5 亿美元的罚款。赵长鹏个人被处以 1.5 亿美元的民事罚款，并要求币安退还 13.5 亿美元的非法交易费用，同时对币安公司罚款 13.5 亿美元。此前，CFTC 指控币安存在利益冲突和非法活动，赵长鹏与美国司法部达成和解协议并辞去 CEO 职务。币安成立于 2017 年，是全球性的加密货币交易所。

美国法院批准命令 币安和赵长鹏将向 CFTC 支付 28.5 亿美元罚款

According to industry estimates, as of the end of November, the sales of VR headsets and AR glasses in the United States have decreased by nearly 40% YoY this year, compared to only a 2% decrease last year. However, the strong sales of Quest 3 have helped boost the market, at least during the holiday season. In the eight weeks leading up to November, VR headset sales in the United States increased by 42% YoY.

Meta Platforms burned billions of dollars in a quarter, while the VR market is still shrinking. Can Quest 3 save the market?

Internal work at Apple indicates that they believe making changes in software, rather than more complex hardware modifications, is enough to bring the watch back to the market. However, analysis suggests that the core of this patent dispute is mainly related to hardware. Industry insiders point out that it is rare for a patent dispute case to develop to the extent of the Apple Watch. Health and safety features are the selling points of the Apple Watch and are the core drivers of this business.

Apple's smartwatch business self-rescue: Engineers racing against time to modify algorithms

英伟达今年业绩表现强劲，股价已经飙升超过 240%，营收环比增长 34%，同比增长 206%。然而，云厂商的资本支出预期却在下滑。虽然市场对英伟达的业绩期望值很高，但从 AI 的应用端来看，支出预期却没有那么乐观。

英伟达会 “缺客”？

美国 10 月核心 PCE 放缓至 3.5%，符合预期。道指涨 0.5%，标普 500 指数涨 0.15%，纳指涨 0.05%。赛富时开盘涨超 9%，公司业绩超市场预期。通用汽车开盘涨逾 1%，预计电池成本将改善 20%。特斯拉开盘涨约 0.5%，副总裁表示生产离不开中国供应链。美联储官员称 “没有考虑” 降息可能性。

美股三大指数高开

Analysis suggests that shipowners' detours have led to an increase in sailing days, which is expected to boost container shipping rates. In addition, air freight is also expected to benefit in the short term from this ship diversion.

Supply chain tension continues as Maersk plans to bypass the Red Sea and detour through Africa

Citigroup pointed out that due to the impact of the global economic headwinds, India's GDP for the fiscal year 2025 may decline from 6.7% in the fiscal year 2024 to 6.2%. They maintain a constructive view on the Indian stock market and expect the NIFTY index to reach a target price of 22,500 points by December 2024, with a forward P/E ratio of 19 times.

Citigroup's Outlook for India in 2024: "Crazy" Stock Market or Continued Performance Depends on This Result

比亚迪第三季度纯电汽车份额追平特斯拉，全球纯电动汽车销量同比增长 29%，中国市场占据 58% 份额。尽管中国市场增长放缓，但中国汽车品牌在海外市场大幅增长。比亚迪纯电动汽车市场份额已追上特斯拉，两者三季度市场份额均为 17%。特斯拉交付量略高于比亚迪，但相差不大。

比亚迪第三季度纯电汽车份额追平特斯拉

黑山上诉法院在网站上表示，下令重审加密货币大亨 Do Kwon。

车企动力电池竞争进入第二阶段，多家企业自研电池开始从电芯层面着手。蔚来发布 150 度超长续航电池包，能量密度达 360Wh/kg。广汽埃安全栈下线 P58 微晶超能电芯，湃电池智能工厂竣工。蜂巢能源发布短刀电池和快充。极氪发布金砖电池。此前还有长安、奇瑞等车企自研电池。自主品牌自研电池热潮再度升温。

车企动力电池竞争，“卷” 向第二阶段

香港特区政府财经事务及库务局局长许正宇今日公布 “新资本投资者入境计划”。根据计划，符合资格申请人在香港投资 3000 万或以上港元，可申请入境香港。其中，投资项目中新设 300 万港元的 “资本投资者入境计划投资组合”，主要为创新科技等有利于香港长远发展的相关项目。

香港公布新资本投资者入境计划：符合资格申请人在香港投资 3000 万或以上港元 可申请入境香港

香港交易所近期首次上市多只美股衍生权证，标志着该交易所在国际化方面迈出重要一步。随着投资者对美股投资需求的增加，香港交易所的美股指数结构性产品成交量也在增长。新上市的衍生权证以 Alphabet、Apple、Tesla 等美国上市公司的股票为标的资产。这一举措有助于满足市场对美股投资的需求。

港交所：多只美股衍生权证在港上市 为逾十年来首批

CircleTech has submitted its fifth application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. How can we tell the story of the "Healthcare-Pharmaceutical-Insurance" closed-loop? | Insights from JZ Research

红海危机对中国石油贸易影响较小，亚洲炼油商受到的影响也不大。胡塞武装袭击船只导致石油和天然气价格上涨，但市场情绪可能逐渐稳定。bp 和挪威国家能源公司宣布暂停通过红海的运输，全球主要集装箱航运公司也做出了相应决定。红海地区运输保险出现波动，许多保险公司正在重新评估前景。红海是重要的石油运输通道，避开红海将导致航程延迟和燃料成本上升。整体而言，红海危机对中国的影响较小。

红海危机，对中国有影响吗？

CLOUD MUSIC turns the tide against adversity.

That pig seller Ding Lei is back again.

12 月 19 日，拼多多紧急向甘肃省慈善联合总会捐款 2000 万元，用于采购棉衣、帐篷等御寒、救灾物资以及积石山县当地的灾后重建工作。

拼多多紧急捐赠 2000 万元，驰援积石山共渡危难

The Christmas holiday is approaching, and the Hong Kong stock market will be closed from December 25th (next Monday) to December 26th (next Tuesday). As for the US stock market, it will be closed all day on December 25th (next Monday). The A-share market will open as usual. As for the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Southbound), the service will be suspended from the afternoon of December 25th (next Monday) to December 26th (next Tuesday), and the service will resume as usual on December 27th (next Wednesday). As for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect (Northbound), the service will be suspended from the afternoon of December 25th (next Monday) to December 26th (next Tuesday), and the service will resume as usual on December 27th (next Wednesday).

Trading Alert: Hong Kong Stock Market Closed for Two Days on December 25th-26th Due to Christmas Holiday.

TikTok 电商为 2024 年定下了 500 亿美金的 GMV 目标，对照今年 200 亿美金的目标数字，目标翻了一倍多。目前 TikTok 电商东南亚 GMV 已经超过 130 亿美金，其中印尼突破 40 亿美金，泰国市场 35 亿美金左右。TikTok Shop 美区 5 月单日销售额 30 多万美金，8 月增长到 500 多万美金一天，10 月分飙升至 1000 万美金，“黑五” 大促期间 11 月 24 日单日 GMV 超 3300 万美元。

TikTok 电商明年 GMV 目标 500 亿美金，东南亚与美国并进

瑞典投资机构 Cevian Capital 以 12 亿欧元入股瑞银，预计未来 3-5 年内瑞银股价将翻倍。Cevian 认为瑞银估值应参考财富管理公司而非传统银行，若能缩小与摩根士丹利的估值差距，瑞银股价可达 50 瑞士法郎。瑞银股价已自 3 月底上涨 38%。此次入股使 Cevian 成为瑞银十大投资者之一。Cevian 认为瑞银财富管理业务有潜力，在美国市场尤为重要。瑞银市净率为 1.2 倍，而摩根士丹利为 2 倍。

全球金融业最大机会！这家机构 12 亿欧元豪赌：未来三到五年，瑞银股价翻倍

腾讯视频号电商业务增长迅速，预计今年的成交总额约为 1000 亿元左右。腾讯财报显示，视频号带来的广告收入是腾讯业绩增长的重要驱动力，第三季度广告收入显著增长。视频号成为了腾讯打造微信生态商业闭环的重要一步，加速了微信生态的商业化。视频号和小游戏等新兴业务为腾讯贡献了高利润率的收入来源。

腾讯视频号电商爬坡

金十数据 12 月 19 日讯，标普全球情报公司的一份分析报告显示，随着市场预期原油和其他能源价格近期的下跌将持续到明年，对能源股的空头押注有所增加。能源板块本季度下跌近 7%，是标普 11 个主要板块中唯一下跌的板块，11 月底的空头利率从 10 月底的 3.43% 上升了 28 个基点，至 3.71%。标普数据显示，11 月底投资者对能源板块的空头兴趣达到了 2022 年 10 月以来的最高水平。此外，标普表示，并非只有石油相关公司的做空意愿上升，能源细分行业（如煤炭和消耗性燃料）的做空意愿都有所上升。

标普全球：投资者对能源股的空头押注有所增加

12 月 19 日下午消息，近日有传闻称，抖音目前在和阿里谈收购饿了么。饿了么方面对此暂无置评。传闻称，“抖音目前在和阿里谈收购饿了么，目前已经到了谈价格阶段，如果谈判顺利，预计春季后就能落地。” 还有消息称，收购价格大概在 70 多亿美元。针对此事，饿了么方面暂未置评。