$Tesla(TSLA.US) Summary - 5/8/2025
Positive Catalysts:1/ Trump streamlines federal process allowing TSLA to secure general unsupervised autonomy license nationally 2/ More affordable vehicle launch at end of 2025 2Q may expand TAM if it’s a different form factor (e.g. hatchback, smaller M-Y). 3/ FSD licensing deal with 1 or more OEMs4/ TSLA likely first to market with generalized unsupervised FSD FY’25 YE5/ DE Supreme Court overturns Chancellor McCormick’s 2018 comp ruling late 20256/ Cybercab volume production begins 20267/ Optimus production begins late-2026Negative Catalysts:1/ Trump eliminates $7,500 IRA EV purchase credit2/ TSLA fails to introduce new cheaper form factor in 2025/1H, and instead cuts prices and costs similar to 2023-20243/ Robotaxi Austin test market gets delayed or not extendable to other states 4/ FY’25 deliv and EPS expectations get reduced further (-3% YoY and -14% YoY respectively)5/ TSLA 2025 P/E of 138x too high relative to FY’25-‘30 EPS growth of +25% CGR. Avg forward P/E past 3 years 77x.$Tesla(TSLA.US) 6-12 month price target $310The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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