It’s crazy that I’m getting the same criticism and disbelief I got in 2021-2023 when I predicted others would catch up with TSLA EV’s battery range and charging speed and be able to offer high quality EVs at a comparable price. Back then, TSLA bulls proclaimed loudly and often how wrong I was with equal vitriol because everyone else in the auto industry would go bankrupt, and so would have to scale back their EV investments. TSLA bulls were clearly wrong about everyone else going bankrupt and scaling back their investments.
With unsupervised autonomy, TSLA bulls are missing that as UBER removes the drivers from vehicles to achieve unsupervised autonomy at 99.99% efficacy (1 critical disengagement per 10K miles) and leverages the AI capabilities of its autonomous partners, $Uber Tech(UBER.US) cost per mile will be the same as $Tesla(TSLA.US) and Waymo. It’s clear that unsupervised autonomy will become a commodity with huge first movers’ advantages. As UBER CEO Dara Khosrowshahi opined this morning on UBER’s earnings call: “This is a very, very big market. There will be no winner-take-all.” This is not unlike $Amazon(AMZN.US) in 2013 which didn’t make its own products and instead offered a broad platform to efficiently sell everyone else’s products. Since 2013, AMZN +13.3x vs S&P500 2.7x.
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