Gary Black Tracker
2025.08.21 01:14

July Fed Minutes Show Majority of FOMC Saw Inflation as Greater Risk

Bloomberg - Maria Eloisa Capurro

08/20/2025 12:40:20

Most Federal Reserve officials highlighted the risk to inflation as outweighing concerns over the labor market at their meeting last month, as tariffs fueled a growing divide within the central bank’s rate-setting committee.

A majority of the 18 policymakers in attendance “judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks,” according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 29-30 meeting.

Several participants emphasized that inflation had exceeded 2% for an extended period and that this experience increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation.

Policymakers left interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% last month, citing elevated uncertainty in their outlook as economic activity moderated during the first half of the year. Their statement at the time characterized the labor market as “solid” but said inflation remained “somewhat elevated.”

Several said they saw the risks to their dual mandate as roughly balanced, the minutes showed, while a couple said they were more concerned about the labor market. Though the minutes don’t identify policymakers by name, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted against the decision, pointing to a weakening job market. This was the first Fed decision in 30 years with two dissents.

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