Powell suggested that the Fed was likely to cut in

Powell suggested that the Fed was likely to cut interest rates in September due to rising risks for the labor market. This was the semi-dovish Powell investors were hoping for today and the market responded accordingly (S&P 500 +1.7%).

In his speech from Jackson Hole, Powell said that the labor market is in a "curious kind of balance" with a slowdown in both the supply of and demand for workers, and that downside risks to employment are rising. The Fed chair also outlined changes to the monetary policy framework, including removing language that previously said decisions would be informed by assessments of "shortfalls of employment from its maximum level".

Chair Powell carefully opened the door to an interest-rate cut in September, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain, and caveating his words with the view that the Fed would be data dependent.

“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said in remarks prepared for the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

Following Powell’s remarks investors boosted bets to 96% (from 70% before his speech) that the FOMC would cut rates by 25bp at their Sept. 16-17 meeting. “He used the speech to solidify expectations for 25 basis points in September,” James Bullard, former President of the St. Louis Fed, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “He leaned into the most recent labor market report, which was very soft. And so I think that’s a done deal.”

In his speech, Powell cited the most recent employment data for July, which showed jobs growth in recent months was substantially weaker than previously reported. “This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,” he said. “If those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

But he continued to argue that policymakers must guard against the prospect that President Trump’s tariffs lead to persistent inflation. He said the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are “now clearly visible,” but it’s reasonable to expect the effects will be relatively short lived. “It is also possible, however, that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed,” Powell said.

“When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate,” he added.

Treasury yields tumbled, the S&P 500 extended gains and the dollar fell.

Powell’s speech comes amid unprecedented pressure from President Trump and his allies aimed at getting the central bank to lower borrowing costs, threatening the Fed’s independence in determining monetary policy. As Powell took the podium, the gathered central bankers and economists showed their support by giving him a standing ovation.

Following the speech Trump told reporters the Fed should have lowered rates a year ago. “We call him ‘Too Late’ for a reason,” he said.