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PostsTesla's Cybertruck release, high pricing, but low cost efficiency
Tesla's prices have been announced on the official website in the United States, and overall, the prices are higher than previously announced, but the configurations are lower.
The starting price for Tesla is $60,990 (an increase of $21,000 compared to the original $39,900). The dual-motor and tri-motor versions have also increased by $30,000 compared to the original prices. Dolphin Research believes that this is due to the economic considerations for this pickup truck, as the cost is too high and the price had to be raised.
For Tesla, there are many firsts in terms of configurations, such as the 48V electronic architecture, all stainless steel body, single-piece glass, 800V high-voltage platform, and the use of only 4680 batteries, etc. However, it is precisely because of these many firsts that the mass production of Tesla has been repeatedly delayed, and the difficulty of ramping up production capacity is high, and the cost remains high and difficult to reduce.
Because Tesla only uses 4680 batteries, the current battery production capacity is actually unable to meet Tesla's shipping volume. However, it has been communicated internally that the 4680 battery is not the delivery bottleneck for Tesla, as they are confident in producing it, it's just a matter of yield rate.
So, the implication of this statement is that the 4680 battery may be supported at the expense of yield rate to meet Tesla's delivery, which means that the short-term economic viability of this vehicle will inevitably be very poor. The company has already guided for 18 months of negative cash flow for this vehicle.
In the initial stage, this vehicle will only be sold in the North American market. Tesla's guidance for this vehicle is that the first-stage target is 125,000 units, and it is expected to ramp up production to 250,000 units by 2025. Looking closely at the delivery timeline of this vehicle, the lowest-priced single-motor version will not be available until 2025. The models that can be delivered next year are only the dual-motor/tri-motor versions priced at $79,900/$99,900. The implication is also that the current cost of this vehicle is too high, and the current economic viability cannot support the starting price of $60,990 for the entry-level version. It is expected that by 2025, through mass production, the cost of the 4680 battery and other components will be reduced, enabling them to be installed in the entry-level version.
Compared to Tesla and the best-selling electric pickup truck in the current U.S. market, the Rivian R1T, Tesla does have better performance than the R1T, but the difference between the two is not that significant. Tesla has a slight advantage in terms of acceleration time/horsepower/pure electric range/maximum payload (but not as much as the previously announced configuration differences), but the price will also be higher compared to the R1T.
Even though the R1T is currently the best-selling electric pickup truck in the United States, it is estimated to only sell 17,000 units in 2023, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the annual sales of 2.7 million pickup trucks in the United States. The reason behind this is that the price of electric pickup trucks is too high, and compared to the starting prices of $30,000 to $40,000 for the top three best-selling gasoline pickup trucks in the United States, electric pickup trucks do not have a price advantage.
So, Dolphin Research's general judgment on this car is as follows: 1) It will be delivered, but the delivery volume may not be as large (possibly not as ideal as Tesla's sales guidance), and after delivery, this model will at least lower the gross margin until 2025; 2) Its significance lies in cross-selling, guiding in-store traffic to other Tesla models.
And Tesla's current biggest focus on the hardware side is still on the next-generation model with a cost of $20,000, which is targeted at the global market. Tesla's ultimate global sales target for this model is 5 million units. However, the launch of this affordable model by Tesla is too slow, and the pressure to rely on the already released 3 and Y models is increasing.
Comparison of Tesla with the best-selling electric pickup truck in the United States
Top 10 best-selling models in the United States
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