The bullish analysts have liquidated their positions. Will retail investors cut losses or buy the dip?

Entering the halving week, coupled with the impact of war factors, the entire crypto market is extremely weak. As of writing, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $63,000, with a 24-hour drop of 3.5%. In addition, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $37 million yesterday. Meanwhile, the performance of altcoins has not improved in the new week, with the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies at $2.43 trillion, a 24-hour drop of 2.11%.

According to Alternative data, today's Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 62 (74 yesterday), hitting a new low in nearly a month, indicating continued cooling of speculative sentiment. Etherscan data also shows that the Gas fee on the Ethereum network has dropped to 8 gwei this morning. Various data suggest that the current crypto market has entered a cooling-off period. Against this backdrop, multiple analysis institutions have given their own operational suggestions.

Markus Thielen, founder of crypto analysis firm 10X Research, said on April 8 that "Bitcoin may climb above $80,000 in the coming weeks, or even higher. Buying at $69,280 and setting a stop-loss at $65,000 seems appropriate."

However, today he stated on social media that risk assets represented by stocks and cryptocurrencies are on the verge of a significant price adjustment. The main trigger is unexpected and persistent inflation. The bond market currently expects fewer than three rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.50%. The market may have reached a critical tipping point for risk assets. As a result, 10X Research has now cleared all positions.

Crypto market maker QCP Capital also pointed out in its latest market report that ETH risk reversal indicators have turned extremely negative (-12%) in the near term, indicating rising risk aversion. Additionally, the market is currently in a state of ETH Gamma short, meaning violent price fluctuations in Ethereum could be amplified.

However, while some are pessimistic, others remain optimistic. Although Bitcoin's price has failed to sustain strong momentum, the bull market in the Bitcoin ecosystem has arrived as expected. These days, the community has been circulating a mint list, including projects to rush into at night, with extremely high enthusiasm.

As for altcoin trading, the market has experienced much frenzy since 2024. New value coins and meme coins are competing equally, while established value coins have "collapsed," leaving many lamenting the futility of value investing. However, some crypto veterans believe we are now in the bottom range for trading. As shown in the chart below, altcoin trading signals indicate it's time to "Sell your house."

Chris Burniske, former head of crypto at Ark Invest and now a partner at Placeholder VC, posted on social media: "There is clear fear in the market, yet prices are holding within reasonable ranges. Excessive prices are being washed away, preparing for an eventual rise." Previously, Chris also stated that if tensions between Israel and Iran ease (yet to be determined), the reset of crypto leverage and the sell-off by non-committed holders would be a great start for the market entering the Bitcoin halving period.

A week ago, Arthur Hayes also wrote in a blog post that U.S. tax collections from mid-April to early May would drain market liquidity, and with the Fed continuing to shrink its balance sheet, the market could become extremely weak. However, starting May 1, as the Fed slows its balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury deploys funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market may begin.

For traders, all they can do now is wait patiently.