$Tesla(TSLA.US)There are three main bearish reasons:

1. Tesla's decision to cancel Model 2 has led to a slowdown in ownership growth, mainly due to difficulties in cost reduction, delays in 4680 battery production, and other factors, making it impossible to boost capital expectations in the short term.

2. The timeline for autonomous driving and expectations of significant revenue growth are too aggressive, ignoring the fact that current regulations cannot accommodate full self-driving and the huge risks posed by FSD mistakes. Additionally, the current market size for FSD subscriptions is limited.

3. Pessimism about sales before the earnings season, with Q1 adopting aggressive sales tactics, which obviously led to subsequent sales falling short of expectations. The Chinese market is extremely competitive, and without new models, sales will gradually decline—all of which are foreseeable.

Currently, the trend remains biased toward downward volatility, and a reversal is unlikely in the short term. Even Robotaxi can't save it, given the market cap is over 3 trillion RMB. Tesla is either doomed or destined for greatness—it's not for the faint-hearted.