[True Zoom Finance] April 19 noon briefing: Macau hotel industry expects 90% occupancy during May Day holiday

"Macao Government Tourism Office expects the number of inbound tourists during the 'May Day' Golden Week to reach an average of 130,000 per day, higher than the Qingming and Easter holidays; Macao's hotel industry hopes the occupancy rate during this Golden Week can reach 90%, and remains optimistic about the future of mainland tour groups being able to make multiple round trips between Hengqin and Macao under the 'group in, group out' policy. JD.com CEO Xu Ran: The number of merchants with sales exceeding 1 million during the 618 shopping festival will increase by over 100%; Lei Jun: Xiaomi SU7 sales are 3 to 5 times higher than expected."

Key News

Macao Hotel Industry Hopes for 90% Occupancy During 'May Day'

l According to reports from Macao Daily, the Macao Government Tourism Office expects the number of inbound tourists during the 'May Day' Golden Week to reach an average of 130,000 per day, higher than the Qingming and Easter holidays; Macao's hotel industry hopes the occupancy rate during this Golden Week can reach 90%, and remains optimistic about the future of mainland tour groups being able to make multiple round trips between Hengqin and Macao under the 'group in, group out' policy.

l Wang Shuxin, President of the Macao Hotel Association, revealed that based on the tourist numbers during the aforementioned holidays, an average of 130,000 tourists per day during this 'May Day' period is believed to be achievable, with hopes for a 90% hotel occupancy rate. The average occupancy rate for traditional hotels in the first four months of this year was about 70%, while the six major integrated resort hotels achieved an 80% occupancy rate. Compared to last year's 'revenge travel' trend, the growth in the hotel industry's business this year has slowed. The hotel industry is still in a recovery phase in the first half of this year, with business recovering to 70-80% of 2019 levels and room rates returning to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels.

JD.com CEO Xu Ran: 618 Will See Over 100% Growth in Number of Merchants with Sales Exceeding 1 Million$JD-SW(09618.HK) $JD.com(JD.US)

l On April 18, at the JD.com 618 Merchant Ecosystem Partner Conference, JD.com Group CEO Xu Ran stated that JD.com will allocate its maximum resources to upgrade three core areas: traffic ecosystem, AI technology, and service capabilities. Through a series of support measures, the goal is to achieve over 50% year-on-year sales growth for more than 150,000 small and medium-sized merchants during JD.com's 618 shopping festival, while also ensuring the number of merchants with sales exceeding 1 million grows by over 100% year-on-year.

l It is reported that since the launch of the 'Spring Dawn Plan' early last year, JD.com has attracted a large number of new merchants by simplifying the onboarding process, reducing 开店 costs, improving operational efficiency, and providing traffic support. JD.com stated that last month, the number of effective third-party merchant stores on its platform exceeded 1 million.

l During this year's 618, in terms of traffic rules, JD.com will closely link identifiers such as 'store star rating,' 'price star rating,' and 'product service star rating' with its search and recommendation mechanisms. Star ratings will be displayed across the entire shopping journey, including search results pages, product detail pages, and shopping carts, ensuring merchants with high-quality products, competitive prices, and excellent services receive more visibility and exposure. JD.com will provide unlimited traffic support to merchants that deliver exceptional user experiences.

l In terms of technology, this year's JD.com 618 will deeply integrate innovations like large models and AIGC into the entire merchant operation process, helping merchants significantly reduce costs and exponentially improve efficiency. Additionally, the platform will offer a series of free AI tools for merchants, including onboarding assistance, graphic design, video generation, and 智能客服 services, to help merchants save on operational costs.

Lei Jun: Xiaomi SU7 Sales Are 3 to 5 Times Higher Than Expected$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

l According to domestic media reports, Xiaomi founder and Chairman Lei Jun announced during a live-streamed event marking 20 days since the launch of the Xiaomi SU7 that sales of the Xiaomi SU7 are 3 to 5 times higher than expected. The official version of the Xiaomi SU7 has already begun deliveries in multiple locations, with deliveries originally scheduled for late April being 提前 to yesterday (April 18).

l When asked about future plans to launch an 越野车， Lei Jun stated there are currently no such plans. In response to claims that some Xiaomi car models offer low 性价比， Lei Jun replied that he has yet to hear of any 纯电轿车 that is profitable, with some even incurring losses of over 100,000 RMB per unit. In an industry with massive losses, discussing 性价比 is inappropriate.

Today's Forex and Commodities News

EUR/USD: Fed's Hawkish Comments Drive Euro Lower, Breaking Below 1.0650

l On Friday, the USD strengthened, with EUR/USD facing continued selling pressure around 1.0640.

l Fed official Bostic stated that U.S. inflation is expected to return to target at a slower pace than previously anticipated.

l ECB policymakers noted that the central bank should cut rates in June to avoid falling behind the inflation curve.

l During early Asian trading on Friday, EUR/USD extended its decline to around 1.0640 after retreating from a one-week high of 1.0690. Hawkish comments from Fed officials provided some support for the USD. Later in the day, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak.

l On Thursday, data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 13 increased by 212,000 (revised from 211,000), below the expected 215,000. The report indicated resilience in the labor market, leading investors to expect the Fed may delay rate cuts until September.

l Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Tuesday that due to unexpectedly high inflation in the first three months of the year, monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for longer. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he expects U.S. inflation to return to the 2% target at a slower pace than many anticipate. Bostic added that he is willing to be patient, with a potential rate cut by year-end. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stated he does not feel an urgent need to cut rates, as monetary policy is currently in a good place. Strong U.S. economic data and the 'higher for longer' interest rate policy continue to bolster the USD, weighing on EUR/USD.

l In Europe, the ECB signaled a potential rate cut in June. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday that if economic data evolves as expected, the ECB will be prepared to reduce restrictions on its monetary policy stance. ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the ECB should cut rates in June to avoid falling behind the inflation curve.

l Additionally, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel stated that despite some inflation data remaining higher than expected, a June rate cut seems increasingly likely. Growing speculation that the ECB may cut rates before the Fed has added some selling pressure on the EUR, temporarily limiting upside for EUR/USD.

Precious Metals: Gold Prices Benefit from Middle East Tensions and USD Adjustment

l Geopolitical tensions keep gold demand firm, with prices showing strong performance. The USD adjusted amid concerns that inflation in other developed countries will remain elevated. Fed's Mester expressed confidence in policy normalization but warned against rushing the process.

l After Wednesday's decline, gold prices (XAU/USD) rebounded to $2,380 during early U.S. trading on Thursday. Fears that Middle East tensions could worsen and spread beyond Gaza if Israel responds harshly to Iran kept gold prices elevated.

l According to The Times, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that "their country will take all necessary measures to defend itself." Netanyahu made the remarks after meetings with the foreign ministers of the UK and Germany.

l Gold's recovery was also driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields, influenced by the Fed's interest rate outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly from a five-month high of 4.70% to 4.57%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

l Gold prices reclaimed most of Wednesday's losses, rising to $2,380 as investors remained wary of geopolitical tensions. Traders continued to flock to gold amid concerns over potential Israeli retaliation for Iran's attack on its territory. Iran's military launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israeli soil.

l The USD's pullback also supported precious metals. The greenback's five-day rally was halted as traders anticipated other developed central banks delaying rate cuts due to persistent price pressures. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, fell sharply to 105.75. Overall, a weaker USD enhances the appeal of gold priced in USD.

l Recent demand for the USD remains firm as Fed policymakers believe rates will stay higher for longer until convincing data shows inflation is sustainably returning to the 2% target.

l On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell stated that recent data has not given policymakers confidence to consider rate cuts. Instead, rates need to remain elevated longer than expected to gain such confidence.

l On Wednesday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also advocated maintaining a restrictive monetary policy framework. Mester remains optimistic that the Fed will eventually gain confidence to cut rates and begin policy normalization, but this should not be done hastily.

l Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department reported stable initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12. Claims were in line with the previous week's 212,000, slightly below the expected 215,000.

Crude Oil: Oil Prices Enter Volatile Phase After Erasing Geopolitical Premium

l Oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, retreating around $6 from yearly highs, nearly erasing gains driven by geopolitical premiums in late March. After stabilizing, prices rebounded slightly, entering a volatile phase during night trading. With the adjustment target of erasing geopolitical premiums achieved, oil prices are expected to re-enter a volatile phase. However, weakening refined product cracks in 欧美 markets, particularly a 暴跌 in diesel prices to three-month lows, will continue to pressure oil prices. Investors must assess the next trading range for oil prices.

l Tracking market indicators over the past period reveals that 原油市场's 供需 dynamics alone are insufficient to drive prices higher. Previous gains were largely fueled by geopolitical anxiety. As tensions ease，原油市场's lack of intrinsic drivers has given way to adjustment 需求， leading to Wednesday's 大跌. However，原油市场 remains under OPEC+ production cuts. With prices down $5, they are expected to show resilience, with limited risk of sustained 单边大跌. Oil prices will continue to establish equilibrium between 多方 and 空方 forces through volatility—caution is advised in navigating these fluctuations.

l Weeks after drone attacks on Russian refineries, the country's diesel exports continue to decline. Data from analytics firm Kpler shows average daily shipments of 740,000 barrels in the 10 days ending April 13, down about 25% compared to the 2019-2023 average. Traders are closely monitoring Russian fuel supply trends. With the country's refining rates hovering near 11-month lows, it may need to divert unprocessed crude to export markets.

l According to ABC News on April 17, multiple Israeli sources indicated that Israel prepared to strike Iran at least twice this week but called off the operations. Since Iran's attack, Israel has been weighing response options, including targeting Iranian proxies in the region without striking 伊朗本土 or launching cyber attacks. A senior U.S. official noted that Israel is unlikely to strike Iran before the end of Passover on April 30, though this could change. The official added that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other leadership remain on high alert.

l As U.S. sanctions pressure on Russia intensifies，原油 trade between Russia and India resembles a game of whack-a-mole. Traders and Indian refinery executives report new companies emerging to handle shipments, many of which became Russian 原油 sellers only in recent months. This evolving network poses growing challenges for the Biden administration. Between January and February, previously unknown entities like Blackford, Black Pearl, and Vertex played key roles in supplying Russian oil to Indian refiners. Viktor Katona, chief 原油 analyst at Kpler, noted many of these firms are less than a year old.

Source: Goldhorse Capital Extramile