Inflation remains stubbornly high—when will the Hong Kong and US stock markets stop falling? April 15-18 review

The most interesting news this week is undoubtedly the survey results shown above, which reveal that most male drivers strongly resist the intelligent systems of $NIO(NIO.US) and $NIO-SW(9866.HK). This might be a reason why $XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) could be considered: because Xiao Ai (Xiaomi's voice assistant) would never betray its fans. Xiaomi's trend is very strong, although some investors might think it could form a double top pattern. However, in my opinion, it’s more likely to be a cup-with-handle formation. Successfully holding above $17, the next target is $20.
$800000.HK$
As mentioned on Monday, caution is needed as the Hang Seng Index might undergo a correction. The key level to watch is 16500—whether it can hold this level tomorrow is crucial. There are two possible scenarios now: the first is a downtrend, and the second is a large sideways range with resistance at 17200 and support at 16160. If it’s indeed a sideways range, deploying $A GX HSICC(3419.HK) would be highly advantageous, offering stable interest income, even better than high-dividend stocks.
$TENCENT(700.HK) has support at 295. As long as this level holds, it will continue to trade in a range. $MEITUAN(3690.HK) is also likely to remain in a range, with resistance at 105 and support at 95. $BABA-W(9988.HK) has the most awkward trend, as it broke below the major support at 68.5 for the second day. If it remains below this level tomorrow, it could confirm a true downside breakout.
$AIA(1299.HK) has recently seen many voices calling for a bottom-fishing opportunity. When it was at $58, many asked if it was time to buy the dip. At the time, I clearly pointed out that it was in Stage 4 and further declines were likely. There might be a minor rebound due to oversold conditions, but reversing such a downtrend would take a very long time. However, given the parabolic decline, a short-covering rebound is quite possible, with resistance at 50.
$NQmain.US$
Nasdaq 100 futures found support at 17600. For now, it’s not advisable to aggressively short; instead, wait for a rebound before considering downside opportunities.
The semiconductor sector weakened due to $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)'s decline. The weakest is undoubtedly $Intel(INTC.US), which has clearly entered Stage 4. Meanwhile, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $AMD(AMD.US), and $ASML(ASML.US) have also lost upward momentum and are likely in Stage 3. Consider deploying $Direxion Semicon Bear 3X(SOXS.US) at the right time.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) directly broke below the major support at 150. Since this is the first break, watch for a potential fake-out. If the break is confirmed, the next support is at 130.

1. Positions and Trades
$Pioneer Muni High Income Fd(MHI.US)2404.HK$
After breaking below 16900, the index futures are likely to trend downward, hence the short position.
$A GX HSCEICC(3416.HK) outperformed due to the volatile trend of $800100.HK$. After the first dividend payout, the annualized return is estimated at 13%. $GX INDIA TOP 10(3184.HK) failed to break previous highs, so there’s no opportunity to add positions.
$Blackstone(BX.US)240517120.00P$
$Blackstone(BX.US).US$ showed extreme weakness post-earnings, hitting a low of 119, but rebounded afterward. Monitor whether it breaks below 120 again to decide on short positions.

2. Reflection
Recently, many markets have shown clear one-sided trends, a rare feast for trend traders. Unfortunately, due to a series of past trading mistakes, I had to adhere to trading rules and couldn’t capitalize on these trends. This serves as a lesson: reckless trading affects not just the present but also future opportunities. $Hamilton Insurance Group - B(HG.US)main.US$ was one such missed opportunity—after breaking the key level, it surged over 10% in just a month. Normally, this would be a once-in-a-lifetime chance, but past mistakes cost me. Always prioritize risk management over profits.

3. Strategy
Most U.S. stocks are showing signs of peaking. Blindly buying the dip here is risky.
In Hong Kong, the number of short candidates is fewer than long candidates, meaning some strong-trending stocks are worth watching. $AAC TECH(2018.HK) successfully broke 24.4 and retested it as support. If it breaks 27, the target is 31, with a stop-loss at $24.
A-shares are still outperforming Hong Kong stocks, with many showing strong trends. Watch $GX CN ROBO&AI(2807.HK) and $GX CN LIL GIANT(2815.HK)—their top holdings are rising steadily, and their tech/communication sectors are hot. Since the STAR Market is off-limits to ordinary investors (except PIs), ETFs are the only way to gain exposure.